Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available.
Today, I’ll cover the Los Angeles Rams. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Los Angeles Rams
2022 Results
Record: 5-12, 3rd in the NFC West
Season End: Lost at Seattle, 19-16
Los Angeles Rams Offseason Summary
Draft
2.36: Steve Avila, G, TCU
3.77: Byron Young, EDGE, Tennessee
3.89: Kobie Turner, DT, Wake Forest
4.128: Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia
5.161: Nick Hampton, EDGE, Appalachian State
5.174: Warren McClendon, OT, Georgia
5.175: Davis Allen, TE, Clemson
5.177: Puka Nacua, WR, BYU
6.182: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, TCU
6.189: Ochaun Mathis, EDGE, Nebraska
7.215: Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss
7.223: Ethan Evans, P, Wingate
7.234: Jason Taylor, S, Oklahoma State
7.259: Desjuan Johnson, EDGE, Toledo
Steve Avila, G (2.36)
Rams were decimated by injuries on their offensive line last year and have now spent their first pick in the draft on an offensive lineman for two consecutive years.
Stetson Bennett, QB (4.128)
Los Angeles only had one quarterback on their roster entering the draft, which led to the selection of Stetson Bennett of Georgia in Round 4. He is the first quarterback drafted by the Rams since Jared Goff (No. 1 overall) in 2016.
Davis Allen, TE (5.175)
Veteran tight end Tyler Higbee is a free agent after this season, with only Brycen Hopkins and Hunter Long serving as positional backups. Allen is an excellent blocker and scored 12 touchdowns at Clemson, ranking second in Tigers history.
Zach Evans, RB (7.215)
Head coach Sean McVay has drafted a running back in every draft with the Rams. Evans could absolutely have fantasy relevance in Year 1 after a very efficient final season at Ole Miss. A shallow Los Angeles depth chart makes Evans intriguing.
Additions
Free agent signings: TE Hunter Long
Hunter Long, TE
Only one big signing for Los Angeles, adding tight end depth behind Tyler Higbee. Long was productive at Boston College but has yet to make a receiving impact in the league.
Departures
QB Baker Mayfield, QB John Wolford, WR Allen Robinson, WR Brandon Powell, OT Ty Nsekhe, OG Oday Aboushi, C Matt Skura, Edge Leonard Floyd, DL Greg Gaines, DL A’Shawn Robinson , LB Bobby Wagner , CB Troy Hill, CB David Long, CB Jalen Ramsey, S Taylor Rapp, S Nick Scott, LS Matthew Orzech, P Riley Dixon, K Matt Gay
Baker Mayfield, QB
Mayfield plugged the hole after Matthew Stafford‘s spinal cord contusion/concussion but landed in Tampa Bay as a starter for 2023.
Allen Robinson, WR
One of the more disappointing fantasy players in 2022, Robinson was traded to the Steelers in April.
Leonard Floyd, EDGE
The 30-year-old Floyd had 29 sacks in his three seasons with the Rams and posted at least nine sacks each year.
Bobby Wagner, LB
The Rams released Wagner, with an increased belief in third-year linebacker Ernest Jones.
Jalen Ramsey, CB
Still only 28 years old, the three-time first-team All-Pro was traded to Miami for a third-round pick and TE Hunter Long.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Seattle Seahawks (Rams +5)
Week 2 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 – @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 – @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 5 – Philidelphia Eagles
Week 6 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8 – @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 9 – @ Green Bay Packers
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 12 – @ Arizona Cardinals
Week 13 – Cleveland Browns
Week 14 – @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 15 – Washington Commanders
Week 16 – New Orleans Saints
Week 17 – @ New York Giants
Week 18 – @ San Francisco 49ers
2023 Future Odds
Caesars: Wins Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+110)
DraftKings/FanDuel/PointsBet/Unibet/2nd Chance Bet: To Win NFC West (+1000)
The Rams suffered a severe case of the Super Bowl hangover, missing the playoffs entirely in 2022, tied with the Broncos for the fifth-worst record in the league. After winning only two of their first nine games, the team shut down Mathew Stafford, who was returning from concussion, before suffering a spinal cord contusion in Week 11. Things only got worse for LA, who lost Cooper Kupp two weeks later. Kupp had a chance to return at the end of the season, but the team opted to hold out the former Offensive Player of the Year with nothing to play for. There were talks this offseason that the Rams may be entering a rebuild with head coach Sean McVay and future Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald contemplating retirement. However, aside from trading Jalen Ramsey and Allen Robinson for some salary relief and additional draft capital, the roster remains intact and ready to compete in 2023. With the line set at 6.5 wins, I side with the over at plus odds, banking on better injury luck (+110). The team is only two years removed from winning 12 games in 2021 five games last season with Stafford and Kupp missing nearly half the season. I’m not as interested in their odds to win the NFC West.
Best Bets
Cam Akers Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-125)
After a miraculous return from a torn Achilles, and over a year to fully recover, the expectations were set high for Cam Akers entering his third season. However, Akers seemingly fell out of favor with the coaching staff, slotted in as the third-string running back to open the 2022 season. In his first nine games, Akers recorded a 45% snap share just once, never exceeding 50%. He also missed two games due to what head coach Sean McVay called “philosophical differences.” In a shocking turn of events, the team suddenly decided to release Darrel Henderson after Week 11, who was operating as the lead back for most of the season. Akers took full command of the backfield to close the season, logging a 70%-plus snap share in five of his last six games while leading the league in rushing yards (512) and rushing touchdowns (6) during that stretch.
Although Akers looks to have solidified himself as the lead back once again, I’m not convinced he’ll command the same volume as he did to close out the 2022 season, especially with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. It’s also worth noting that 2022 rookie Kyren Williams played ahead of Akers in the season opener before suffering a high ankle sprain. Zach Evans, who was selected in the sixth round of the most recent draft, may also carve out a role after generating positive buzz in training camp. Evans fell in the draft but was a highly touted player coming out of high school as a five-star prospect. In his final season at Ole Miss, Evans handled 156 touches for 1,055 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns (10).
FanDuel: Cooper Kupp Most Receptions (+700)
FanDuel: Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards (+1200)
In his first season with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp had immediate chemistry with his new quarterback, winning the triple crown. He finished first in the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16). Although the team wasn’t the same offensive powerhouse last season, Kupp continued to dominate on the field, averaging nine receptions for over 100 receiving yards in eight healthy games.
Extrapolated over a 17-game season, Kupp was on pace for an NFL record 153 receptions to go along with 1,728 receiving yards, the ninth-most all-time, trailing only Justin Jefferson in 2022. I like the long-shot odds for Kupp to once again lead the league in receptions (+700) and receiving yards (+1200) in 2023. In 29 career games with Stafford, including the playoffs, Kupp has been peppered with targets, averaging 11.24 per game, catching 8.62 passes for 111.76 receiving yards.
