2023 NFL Betting Futures: NFC North

The start of July means the NFL season is coming fast. Training camps start for rookies in three weeks, with veterans reporting about one week later. The NFL Hall of Fame Game begins in less than one month, which signals the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.

The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the NFL North.

Khalil Herbert Over/Under 600.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I actually searched for this one immediately, hoping I could see an early line at just one sportsbook. We start with Khalil Herbert under 600.5 rushing yards at Caesars.

Herbert was a sixth-round pick from Virginia Tech in 2021, projected as a backup to starting RB David Montgomery. However, Herbert made the most of his second-year opportunities, leading all running backs (with at least 100 carries) at 5.7 yards per carry. Our FTN Fantasy Player Stats Tool shows illustrates that efficiency.

The Bears may have been impressed with Herbert, but that didn’t prevent them from adding competition at the running back position. Chicago signed D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer in the offseason, before drafting Texas product Roschon Johnson in Round 4 of this year’s draft. Foreman could absolutely win the starting running back job after rushing for 914 yards and five touchdowns last year for Carolina. He posted five games of 100-plus total yards from Week 7 to Week 16.

Of course, none of these options will even contend for the title of Bears rushing leader. That will likely belong to quarterback Justin Fields, who tallied a remarkable 1,143 rushing yards in his sophomore season. Fields’ 160 rushing attempts were 31 more than Herbert and only 40 fewer than leading rusher David Montgomery.

This is the classic ambiguous backfield, with Herbert’s current hold on the starting role serving as the definition of “tenuous.” There are so many outs to hitting his under, without even mentioning the injury concerns. I’m taking the under of a solid, but unspectacular “RB1” for the Bears.

The Pick

Khalil Herbert Under 600.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Caesars)

Alexander Mattison Over/Under 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Anyone else starting to feel this number is creeping too high?

Alexander Mattison inherits the Minnesota RB1 spot after the release of four-time All-Pro Dalvin Cook. However, Mattison has never exceeded 134 carries in his four-year NFL career nor reached 500 rushing yards in any of those seasons. His production without Cook has certainly been increased, but most will be surprised he only averaged 79.5 rushing yards per game. Per the FTN Splits Tool, the biggest increase sans-Cook for Mattison has been in the passing game.

If we project Mattison’s 79.5 average to a 17-game season, that crushes this number. But is it realistic to project a full 17 games for a running back who has never been the leading rusher?

Cook averaged 268.8 carries per season over the last four campaigns. If we use Mattison’s career 4.1 YPC average with that number, that equates to about 1,100 rushing yards. However, Mattison has only averaged 3.75 yards per carry over the past two seasons. It is also unrealistic for Mattison to approach Cook’s average workload in his first season as the RB1.

We project Mattison for 213.8 rushing attempts and 883 rushing yards, which equates to a generous 4.13 yards per carry. I’m betting against Mattison in his first season as lead RB and see value in his under based on our projections.

The Pick

Alexander Mattison Under 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over/Under 949.5 Receiving Yards (-135, +110)

I am all-in on Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2023.

In just two seasons, the USC product has quickly ascended to the clear WR1 in Detroit, and one of the most productive receivers in the league. He has totaled 196 receptions, 2073 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns over his first 33 NFL games. The receiving total ranks 28th all-time, and his reception total is actually tied with Justin Jefferson for second most in NFL history.

Last season, St. Brown finished third among all wide receivers in target share at 32.3%. Using our FTN Utilization Report, it’s crystal clear that St. Brown possesses one of the largest team target shares in the league.

It appears St. Brown’s presence in this offense may actually grow in 2023, with explosive wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games of the season due to violation of the NFL’s gambling policy. Residing as the clear top receiving option on a Detroit offense that led the NFL with 33 PPG at home (fifth overall), is a fantastic wagering opportunity for a receiving yardage over.

There is wide variation in St. Brown’s receiving yardage prop, ranging from as low as 949.5 to 1,000.5. I’ll pay the juice and take the security of the low number, just in case of an injury.

The Pick

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 949.5 Receiving Yards (-135, BetMGM)

T.J. Hockenson Over/Under 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+100, -130)

There was immediate chemistry between quarterback Kirk Cousins and tight end T.J. Hockenson last season. Hockenson joined Minnesota in Week 9 and tied with Travis Kelce for most positional targets (85) from there through Week 17. During that span, he saw eight or more targets seven times and double-digit targets on three separate occasions (including 16 targets in Week 16).

He was also a favorite target of Cousins in the red zone, leading all tight ends with 13 targets from those same eight weeks. The departure of Adam Thielen eliminates a huge red zone threat in this offense, coming off a season where Cousins threw a career-high 643 pass attempts despite a fantastic 13-4 win/loss record for the Vikings.

I expect overall team regression from Minnesota, which should lead to even more passing opportunities and negative game scripts for Cousins. While the Vikings did draft rookie Jordan Addison in Round 1, I don’t see him siphoning red zone work for the athletic and established Hockenson. This number is high (5.5 touchdowns), but it’s worth the plus-money risk on a team with a below-average defense.