2023 NFL Betting Futures: AFC South

The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camp will start for rookies this week, with veterans reporting soon after. The NFL Hall of Fame Game kicks off in just three weeks, which means it’s the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.

The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the AFC South.

(All my lines are what I saw as I wrote it. They might not match the odds you find when you read the article.)

NFL Player Futures Futures for 2023: AFC South

Trevor Lawrence 25.5 Passing Touchdowns

I am fully embracing the Trevor Lawrence breakout season. Using our FTN Weekly Fantasy Finishes Tool, it’s clear that once Lawrence became acclimated to Doug Pederson’s offensive system, he was a different quarterback. From Week 10 to Week 16, he posted five top-10 fantasy positional finishes (with his bye in Week 11).

How did those fantasy finishes translate to Jacksonville passing production? Our FTN Splits Tool provides that answer.

Jacksonville experienced a 65% increase in passing touchdowns during that time, and a 22.4% increase in passing yardage. The Jaguars are the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC South, currently listed at -155 on DraftKings. Two of the other teams in the division (Tennessee, Houston) will have rookie starting quarterbacks, providing the Jaguars another advantage.

Everything lines up for a big passing year for the Jaguars. They added dynamic wideout Calvin Ridley, re-signed tight end Evan Engram, and return the same coaching staff from an offense that played at the ninth-fastest pace last season per our FTN Pace & Play Calling Tool. I’m backing Trevor Lawrence to easily beat this touchdown prop, as he threatens for NFL MVP.

The Pick

Trevor Lawrence Over 25.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112, FanDuel)

Anthony Richardson 2,599.5 Passing Yards

I am fading the passing yardage prop for Indianapolis rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson.

Ever since Richardson did this flip at his pro day, the belief in his quarterback ability has grown exponentially.

Richardson could become a fantastic NFL quarterback, but I don’t see that happening in Year 1. He is an incredible athlete with 4.4 speed, yet he only brings one year of high-level college production at Florida. Richardson completed only 53.8% of his passes, throwing 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He did rush for 654 yards and nine touchdowns, but that rushing ability does not factor into this prop.

Richardson will reside in a run-heavy offense that should feature a heavy dose of starting running back Jonathan Taylor, with limited pass-catching options. Michael Pittman tallied 99 receptions but failed to reach 1,000 yards. Parris Campbell ranked second on the team with 63 receptions, but he is now on the Giants. Indianapolis will need second-year wideout Alec Pierce, newly acquired Isaiah McKenzie and third-round rookie wide receiver Josh Downs to provide above-expectation performances to have Richardson even approach this number.

Richardson is an inaccurate quarterback, in a run-first offense centered around Jonathan Taylor, on a Colts team with a 6.5 projected win total. Richardson will be hard-pressed to eclipse Justin Fields’ passing yardage total (2,242) from last season.

The Pick

Anthony Richardson Under 2,599.5 Passing Yards (+100,BetMGM)

Treylon Burks 685.5 Receiving Yards

I had my doubts about Treylon Burks entering the offseason, and the recent Tennessee signing of DeAndre Hopkins solidifies my under play on this receiving yardage prop.

Burks was a first-round draft pick in 2022, but underwhelmed in 11 games as a rookie. He battled injuries throughout the season including a concussion, turf toe, and a groin strain. Despite finally approaching an 80% snap share over the last three games of the season, he accumulated just eight receptions and 85 receiving yards during that span.

While he dealt with inferior quarterback play late in the year from Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs, Burks’ numbers were not fantastic in the eight games with Ryan Tannehill under center per our FTN Splits Tool:

I expect Hopkins to demand a healthy amount of targets, and late-season production from tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo should carry over to this season.

The Titans offense still runs through Derrick Henry, and the possibility exists that Tennessee turns to rookie quarterback Will Levis later in the season. All these factors lead to a fade on Treylon Burks’ receiving yardage prop on Caesars.