NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
NFL bettors can try to predict how rookie wide receivers will perform with season-long prop bets. There are player totals available for most of the receivers who were selected near the top of the 2022 draft.
Drake London was the first receiver to come off the board when the Atlanta Falcons drafted him with the No. 8 overall pick. After earning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors at USC, London has an over/under of 764.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook for his rookie NFL campaign.
The New York Jets and New Orleans Saints drafted a pair of Ohio State receivers back-to-back, selecting Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave with the Nos. 10 and 11 picks in the draft. Both rookie receivers have an over/under receiving total north of 700 yards, as well.
Treylon Burks has the highest total of any rookie, even though he was the sixth wide receiver to come off the board. The Tennessee Titans selected Burks with the No. 18 overall draft pick. Tennessee received the No. 18 and No. 101 picks from the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for A.J. Brown.
Recent NFL history suggests that a couple of rookie receivers will go well over their yards total. Ja’Marr Chase’s 1,455 yards last year were the most of any rookie receiver in the Super Bowl era. Justin Jefferson set the record in the previous season with 1,400 yards for the Minnesota Vikings.
Four 2021 rookies finished with more than 900 receiving yards. Five 2020 rookies went over the 850-yard mark.
Let’s take a look at the rookie receiving totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.
2022 NFL Rookie WR Prop Bets
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Treylon Burks Over 795.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Titans seem to believe that Treylon Burks can at least be a reasonable facsimile of Brown, giving him a chance to compete for the No. 1 receiving spot. No matter what happened in the playoffs, Ryan Tannehill has been an above-average regular-season quarterback when a healthy Derrick Henry is on the field. As the top receivers on the team, both Burks and Robert Woods could flirt with 1,000-yard seasons.
Drake London Over 764.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The first receiver selected in a strong draft class should be able to reach 765 yards. Drake London only needs to average 45 yards over 17 games to hit that mark. Tight end Kyle Pitts is the most dangerous pass-catcher in Atlanta. The departure of Russell Gage and Calvin Ridley’s suspension opens up the possibility for London to lead all Falcons’ receivers in yards. Atlanta is rebuilding and could be trailing for a good portion of its games, allowing London to receive plenty of targets.
Chris Olave Under 719.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Chris Olave will have to compete for receptions with a pair of established veterans. Jarvis Landry joins the Saints after dealing with multiple leg injuries in 2021. Michael Thomas was arguably the NFL’s best receiver before an ankle injury derailed his 2020 season and kept him out for the entirety of last year. If both veterans can come close to their old form, it will put a modest ceiling on Olave’s rookie receiving numbers. It doesn’t help Olave’s cause that Jameis Winston threw for 167.1 yards per game as the Saints’ starter in 2021.
Garrett Wilson Over 749.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Jets don’t have an established No. 1 receiver on the roster, creating the opportunity for Garrett Wilson to become Zach Wilson’s favorite target. New York’s second-year quarterback should be much better than he was as a rookie when he averaged fewer than 180 yards per game. Garrett Wilson finished ahead of Olave with 70 receptions for 1,058 yards with Ohio State last season.
Jahan Dotson Under 611.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jahan Dotson could end up being one of the best receivers in the 2022 draft class. His stats, however, might not reflect it in his rookie season. With Terry McLaurin and a healthy Curtis Samuel on the roster, Dotson is in the line to be Washington’s third-best receiver. Don’t expect the No. 3 receiver on a team led by Carson Wentz to surpass the 600-yard mark.
Skyy Moore Under 680.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Rookie receivers don’t exactly have the best track record under Andy Reid. Since the Kansas City Chiefs hired Reid in 2013, the team has never had a first-year wide receiver who reached the 600-yard mark. Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardmen are all good bets to have more yards than Skyy Moore. As one of the NFL’s top Super Bowl contenders, the Chiefs might not have a long leash with Moore if he has any first-year struggles.
How To Bet NFL Rookie WR Props
Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.
Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, a selection of receivers are given a receiving yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.
Garrett Wilson’s regular-season receiving yards total, for example, is 749.5 yards. Both the over and under have -115 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.
A winning $115 bet on Wilson to record over 749.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $215 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $115 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Wilson’s over for yards would come with a $86.96 profit
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
