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Tipico One-Play Payday (April 19)

NBA Bets

Welcome to a Monday edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

Tipico Sportsbook lines

Today we have a loaded nine-game NBA slate featuring these lines on Tipico Sportsbook:

  • Cavaliers (-2.5/-145) @ Pistons (+120), 212.5
  • Bulls (+200) @ Celtics (-5.5/-250), 216.5
  • Warriors (+320) @ 76ers (-8.5/-450), 224.5
  • Thunder (+500) @ Wizards (-11.5/-800), 228.5
  • Rockets (+300) @ Heat (-8.5/-400), 218.5
  • Spurs (-105/-115) @ Pacers (-105), 231.5
  • Suns (+115) @ Bucks (-2.5/-140), 234.5
  • Grizzlies (+250) @ Nuggets (-6.5/-320), 226.5
  • Jazz (-6.5/-280) @ Lakers (+220), 214.5

Today's Tipico Sportsbook picks

For today’s Tipico One-Play Payday, I am looking to parlay four ML favorites:

  1. Philadelphia 76ers -450
  2. Washington Wizards -800
  3. Miami Heat -400
  4. Utah Jazz -280

1u, with the total odds ending up being +133. 

The Sixers are facing a banged-up Warriors team that features Stephen Curry carrying a questionable tag. Kelly Oubre Jr. is also listed as questionable, with James Wiseman, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Eric Paschall all already ruled out. The Sixers also carry some injury news with Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Dwight Howard all listed as questionable (all missed last game). I don’t think Stephen Curry plays tonight for Golden State, which ends up making -450 too good of a value. Even if he plays, this Sixers team should be viewed as a heavier favorite, as the Warriors do not have any size in the frontcourt to compete with Joel Embiid

The Wizards are playing one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Oklahoma City Thunder, who also happen to be on the second night of a back-to-back. OKC will remain without Al Horford, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Miller and Mike Muscala. I also am expecting to see one of or all of Luguentz Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski or Darius Bazley to be rested for this game. Play impact estimate (PIE) is one of the advanced stats in the NBA that correlates to winning the most, the Thunder rank dead-last in the NBA in PIE. This Wizards team isn’t exactly elite though, and I think the 11.5 spread is a touch high, so I prefer targeting their -800 ML to slightly boost our odds. -800 is an 89% implied probability of winning, I project them to win 92.3% of the time in this game, so we are getting a sight value. 

The Heat have had a grueling schedule over the last week of the NBA season, as they are currently in an eight-game in 12 days stretch. The Heat are also on a second night of a back-to-back. I believe that is already impacted in their -400 ML against the Rockets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Rockets are also on a second of a back-to-back but will see John Wall play in this game (he sat yesterday). While that helps the Rockets, it doesn’t really help them that much. One key is the status of Jimmy Butler. Butler rolled his ankle in the previous week, and the Heat finally sat him yesterday against the Nets. Because of that, I expect Butler to play in this game. The Rockets rank 29th in the NBA in PIE.

I believe the Jazz are undervalued on the road tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers, who still remain without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Jazz are also missing Donovan Mitchell after spraining his ankle last week. Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are listed as probable. Per the NBA Splits Tool, Utah obviously regresses some in games that Donovan Mitchell does not play, but not significantly. Their offensive rating decreases by 1.29, their defensive rating increases (bad) by 3.21 and their net rating decreases by 4.50 but remains a respectable 4.46. In games that LeBron James and Anthony Davis have missed, the Lakers' net rating is -1.82. Utah is still the better team and we are getting good value at -280.

When parlaying all four MLs, our odds get boosted to +133 with an implied probability of 43% where I would handicap this parlay at -150 which is a 60% implied probability. 

To recap, today’s One-Play Payday is a four-team ML parlay, 1u:

  • Philadelphia 76ers -450
  • Washington Wizards -800
  • Miami Heat -400
  • Utah Jazz -280
  • +133

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