Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
SuperDraft is one of the hottest platforms in the market for DFS players. SuperDraft offers a unique twist on your traditional DFS experience with game modes like “Multiplier” and “Super 15.”
This daily article will focus on daily value plays from SuperDraft’s exclusive multiplier game mode. By eliminating the traditional salary cap structure and providing a points multiplier for every player on the slate, there is almost limitless flexibility when building lineups on SuperDraft. You can load up on all the studs, but their point multipliers will be low. You can balance those plays out with some long shots that could score up to 2x their fantasy points to vault you to the top of the leaderboards.
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With four games on Monday’s slate, let’s get into some of the Multiplier plays over on SuperDraft.
Guard
Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers (1.1x score multiplier) – There’s a shortage of All-Star-caliber players on this slate, so the ones that we do have to choose from have seen their multipliers drop near the floor. Garland fits the bill on both counts, and even with his multiplier at its lowest point this season he looks like a strong priority at guard. The Cavs’ floor general is having an outstanding season, both from a real basketball and daily fantasy standpoint, the latter of which has been bolstered by his minutes load over the last month-plus. Garland is averaging 37.5 minutes per game over his last five outings, scoring 20 or more real points in all five and hitting the double-double mark with assists in his last four. The game environment (current implied total is 13.5 points lower than the next lowest on the slate) may keep the field from rostering players in this matchup heavily, but I am willing to overlook the slow pace for the high floor and ceiling combo we get from Garland.
Trent Forrest, Utah Jazz (2x) – This is a purely speculative play as of this writing, but I wanted to give my thoughts here and then follow up on the livestream before lock this evening. The Jazz lost a close one to the Warriors last night and now travel to Phoenix for another showdown between two top teams in the Western Conference. Utah didn’t make it out of the Bay unscathed, however. In addition to Donovan Mitchell being out again tonight, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic are questionable after getting banged up late in last night’s game. I’ll add in some personal speculation that, as the Jazz are 9-point road underdogs as of this writing, Mike Conley may sit on the second half of this back-to-back set. If that were to occur, I would have some interest in Forrest on SuperDraft tonight. Forrest, a second-year guard out of Florida State and cousin to Detroit’s Saben Lee, is someone we’ve benefitted from at FTN playing Summer League and NBA preseason DFS. He’s not going to jump off the page with his fantasy rates, but if we see the Jazz sit the aforementioned players and punt this game, Forrest contributes enough across the box score that I would have interest at 2x, especially as a way to get different in GPPs. He leads the Jazz in minutes this season (111) with Mitchell, Conley, Gobert and Bogdanovic off the floor.
Forward
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls (1.05x) – Back to the land of players whose name you recognize, I have a lot of interest in getting multiple pieces of this game. The Bulls visit Oklahoma City Monday in what is currently projected to be the most highly contested game of the four on the slate with Chicago just two-point favorites. They will remain without the services of Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, leaving the heavy duty lifting to DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. Chicago is on the second half of their own back-to-back set after getting whooped by the lowly Magic on Sunday despite 41 points from DeRozan. The Bulls are in desperate need of a similar performance tonight from DeRozan, as they try to cling to their place in the upper tier of the Eastern Conference. His multi-positional eligibility gives you some extra versatility to build your SuperDraft lineups in a unique manner. I don’t have a lean on if I’d rather put him at guard or forward as of this writing, but one thing is for sure. DeRozan is the first player I’m clicking on tonight on SuperDraft because I can’t let a player who projects for 36-plus minutes with a 38.1% usage rate (with LaVine, Ball and Caruso off the floor this year in a 235-minute sample size) be left out of my lineups on this slate. I do have some interest in getting a piece of the Thunder as well with how close this game projects, and for what it’s worth my favorite way to do so is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at guard.
Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz (1.75x) – If Conley sits and you don’t want to take the Trent Forrest risk, then Joe Ingles is the Jazz player for you. Regardless of who sits, there’s not going to be a usage percentage or sample size big enough to make Ingles jump off the page projection-wise. But he will become the primary ball-handler if all those Utah players sit as long as this game stays in the balance (which may not be for long) and lead the way offensively with Jordan Clarkson (who himself would boast a massive 36.4% usage rate in this scenario). The extra shot attempts, a potential positive regression in his shooting efficiency and his 1.75x multiplier would make for a very safe floor with the upside to end up optimal if we do in fact get all the potential inactives for the Jazz tonight. I would likely avoid pairing Ingles and Forrest together in the case of everyone sitting.
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Center
Goga Bitadze, Indiana Pacers (1.5x) – Quite possibly more well known for the draft week picture of his media booth next to Zion Williamson’s than his play, Bitadze is a key piece for me on SuperDraft. With Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner still out for the Pacers, Bitadze should slide back into his 30-plus minute role here against the Pelicans. He’s an extremely productive fantasy player, and maybe the most underrated shot blocking talent in the league currently. Bitadze is averaging 1.22 SuperDraft points per minute over his last four games, and even though there’s a tough individual matchup against Jonas Valanciunas on the other side of the court here, those rates are in line (and maybe even a little low) for what we should expect from him. He has forward eligibility so you could take advantage of that and still roster someone like Nikola Vucevic, Jarett Allen or Valanciunas himself with your center spot.
