Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We only have one game in the NBA tonight. The Atlanta Hawks stayed alive with a 119-117 win in Boston last time out and earned the right to fly home for a game 6 in Atlanta down 3-2. The Celtics move on with a win and are favored by 7 points to do so. There’s no real injury news to discuss, so let’s just get right into my 3 best NBA bets for Thursday, April 27th.
Best NBA Total Bet
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks OVER 232
This is the highest total of the series so far. It opened at 231 in game 1 and went under twice in a row. That dipped the totals to 229 and three straight overs now have it up to 232. We are projecting a 10% edge on this number in our betting model, so I’m in on it. The last two games in Atlanta both went over, featuring 250 points in each.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Al Horford OVER 3.5 assists
Al Horford is not shooting the ball, yet still gets 33-34 minutes of court time. He’s taken a combined 7 shots in the last two games and has averaged under 5 field goal attempts for the series. He has contributed in other ways with defense, rebounding, and assists. He’s logged five assists in each of the last two games and our Player Prop Model projects him for 4 today. At +135, we can not ignore the value in that number with an edge to the over. I’m not expecting big Al to drop 10 dimes tonight, but he’s more than a capable passing big man and has been facilitating on the offensive end recently.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Onyeka Okongwu Rebounds OVER 5.5
Onyeka Okongwu had five rebounds in games 1 and 3, nine in game 2, and 4 in each of the last two games. I like him for at least 6 rebounds today, which may sound crazy. Our Player Prop Model likes him for 7, so at least I’m less crazy than a computer. What I and our model are accounting for is the fact the Hawks played better last game with Okungwu on the floor than they did with Capela. In fact, Okungwu has a better +/- in both of the games the Hawks won. HE also played the larger share of the Center minutes in that game 5 win and that could continue based on his performance. If it does, I would expect the rebounding numbers to step up as well.
