Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Orioles -146 @ Tigers +124 – Total 8
FanDuel Sportsbook
We’re heading to Comerica Park Thursday evening as we look to stay hot with our writeups. We’ll try something a little different today – rolling with a same game parlay as we back the Baltimore Orioles and Kyle Gibson’s strikeout prop.
Gibson absolutely shoved against these Tigers last week in Baltimore – allowing one run in 6.1 innings while striking out 11 Detroit batters. His 16.7% SwStr% and 75% Z-Contact% were season bests through five starts. Gibson hasn’t been a big strikeout guy in his career but he’s featuring a new pitch in 2023. After adding the sweeper to his arsenal late in 2022 (throwing it a total of 54 times), it’s now his second-most-thrown pitch at 24.4%. The 35-year-old has found a ton of success with his new offering as it carries an elite 43.1% whiff% and 34.4% K%. Four of Gibson’s five pitches had a whiff% over 50% in his last start against the Tigers – his sweeper was dominant with a 66.7% whiff%. The Tigers’ 25.3% K% versus right-handed pitching ranks fifth highest this season, while their 67 wRC+ is the second lowest in baseball. Detroit has the fourth-highest swing rate along with the eighth-highest swinging-strike percentage at 11.8%. Gibson’s strikeout prop opened at 4.5 with a decent amount of juice to the over, so we’ll tease it down to 3.5 just to be safe.
The Orioles’ 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks eighth-best in the majors. They’re getting their second look at southpaw Joey Wentz in less than a week, as they put up five runs in four innings against him at Camden Yards. The O’s hit Wentz hard posting a 14.3% barrel% and he wasn’t able to get many swings and misses. Baltimore had an expected-batting average of .288 and expected-slugging over .500 against Wentz. The 25-year-old lefty has a 7.56 ERA this season, with both his FIP and SIERA over 5. I also like the O’s to win – so we’ll save juice on both wagers by sticking them in a same-game parlay.
We might not need to but I teased Gibson’s strikeout prop down to 3.5 and parlayed it with the Orioles money line. I’m projecting Kyle Gibson to pitch six-plus innings against the Tigers Thursday evening and should end up with five or six punchouts and an Orioles win. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet: SGP: Orioles / Kyle Gibson Over 3.5 Ks +100
