Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With three regular-season NBA DFS slates remaining (including Friday’s), rotations are going to get whacky, as tons of starters will be rested in anticipation of the playoffs. With none of the eight games on tap Friday carrying any significant playoff meaning, I will not be including the playoff probabilities.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Cavaliers at Wizards preview
WAS -7.5, total: 226.5
With the Wizards holding an 86.8% chance to finish between the Nos. 9 and 10 seed, the Wizards don’t have anything to play for here, but I still expect Russell Westbrook to play. Even at his price, he’d be the top overall spend-up on the slate given his current floor/ceiling combination and the fact that Cleveland’s biggest defensive weaknesses come in the transition game.
Outside of Westbrook, Davis Bertans and Ish Smith stand out as a pair of viable value options. They’ve both stepped up on the offensive end with Bradley Beal out and for $4,200 and under, it’s hard to argue with them in cash games. Rui Hachimura is another viable option, but he’s been more of a cash-game floor play rather than a high-ceiling option.
This is also an appealing matchup for the Cavs, but the only issue is the fact that they’re one of the most unappealing teams in DFS, especially on a slate with so much potential value. With Cedi Osman and Darius Garland questionable, Collin Sexton has a chance to flirt with 100 touches in this game, which bodes well against the Wizards for a player that scored at least 22 raw points in nine of his last 10 games. Outside of Sexton, though, this team is rather unappealing. If Kevin Love sits out, Dean Wade becomes a viable, albeit boring value play. If active, however, it’s easy to avoid Wade and Love would be a viable GPP dart, especially given his newfound sense of effort last game.
Nuggets at Pistons preview
DEN -9.5, total: 221
As you can imagine, the Pistons have listed just about their entire starting rotation out. This has become normal over the last few weeks for them, but to specify, Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Cory Joseph, Frank Jackson, Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder are all out. The difference here is Stewart’s absence, as he is typically active when the rest are out. This should pave the way for Jahlil Okafor to soak up a ton of minutes against a Denver defense allowing the highest field-goal percentage in the league within the restricted area.
Outside of Okafor, Saddiq Bey carries upside here given the fact that he’ll be the offensive catalyst, but he’s priced appropriately at $6,800, so he can’t be considered a core play. Saben Lee is the other priority for me here, as he’s averaged 30.5 minutes per game over his last two, averaging 17.5 points, 6.0 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. For $4,000, that’s elite production.
For Denver, Michael Porter sat out Thursday, so we can expect him back Friday for the second part of the back-to-back set. This could also mean that Nikola Jokic could rest, seeing that this is a meaningless game for the Nuggets. In that case, Porter becomes an elite option, as would JaVale McGee assuming he draws his second consecutive start. At a minimum price, I would prefer McGee over the aforementioned Okafor. Depending on how things shake out regarding rest, we could also see Aaron Gordon, Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo vault into a higher level of viability.
Magic at Sixers preview
PHI -13.5, total: 220.5
The Sixers are pretty set in the No. 1 seed in the East, as Basketball-Reference has them at a 98.6% chance to finish atop the conference. This could very well lead all or any of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris sitting out on the second leg of a back-to-back. Embiid is obviously the most likely here, which would lead to Dwight Howard seeing more minutes (likely off the bench), making him a viable value option given the fact that he’s averaged 1.38 DKP/min over the last four weeks. In addition to Howard’s viability, any of the big three that would be active would be viable if any of the others sit out. If Ben Simmons ends up sitting, this would be a great spot to target Shake Milton or Tyrese Maxey, with the latter being the better bet given the nature of this game (potential blowout).
The Magic are another team, similar to the Pistons, that have been giving their young guys extended minutes lately and Friday should be no different. We’ll get our typical minutes out of Cole Anthony, Mo Wagner and Wendell Carter, but my interest here lies in RJ Hampton. Over his last seven games, he’s averaged 16.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists over 30.3 minutes per game. He’d be one of the first players to see extended run, making him a great mid-tier option.
Jazz at Thunder preview
UTA -13.5, total: 222
Similar to the Sixers, the Jazz are pretty set into the No. 1 seed (85.8% chance) despite a Suns win Thursday. Because of this, it’s hard to envision Mike Conley (currently questionable) suiting up Friday. This would continue to make Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson viable as the primary ball-handlers, while Bojan Bogdanovic operates as the primary scorer. All three are viable given the cake-walk matchup, but they’re all at-risk to have their minutes scaled back, making them GPP options at best, for me. The same can be said about Rudy Gobert, but I have more interest in the former three in tournaments given their lower prices (relative to Gobert). While he can certainly go out and averaged over 2.0 DKP/min, I would rather allocate that $8,200 elsewhere.
If anyone else from the Jazz rests, we can expect players like Georges Niang, Trent Forrest and the other deep bench guys to see more playing time.
The Thunder, regardless of how many young guys they’re giving run, are a team that I have zero interest in. The one exception will come if Ty Jerome is ruled out, as this would pave way for Kenrich Williams to operate as a primary ball-handler. In the last game that this happened, Williams played 33 minutes en route to 20 points, four assists, four steals and a pair of both rebounds and blocks. For $3,800, he offers over 10x upside.
Raptors at Mavericks preview
DAL -13.5, total: 221.5
The Raptors come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after resting all of their starters last night and while they all sat out, only Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet were ruled out with the official “rest” tag. This should allow the Raptors to continue to “rest” their players under the tags of various ailments while avoiding penalty from the league, making this another game to assume the starters (at least most of them) will not play.
In this scenario, Jalen Harris would be an elite value option once again, averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in 27.3 minutes per game over his last trio of games. With the other Raptors players (Khem Birch, Malachi Flynn, Gary Trent) being priced close to their respective ceilings, Harris still offers a discount relative to his upside. If Lowry and/or VanVleet suit up, however, he’s easy to avoid. After Trent and Chris Boucher were ruled active and picked up DNP-CDs Thursday, these are two players that I’m comfortable avoiding on this slate given the downside.
For the Mavericks, they have over a 77% chance to finish as the No. 5 seed, making this another rather meaningless game. Even so, I do expect Luka Doncic to suit up as well as Kristaps Porzingis, given the fact that there haven’t been any rumblings of rest here. If both are active, they both carry massive ceilings. Doncic, even given his latest inconsistencies, would be one of the top studs on the slate and one that would be easy to get to given all the value on the slate. There’s still a non-zero chance one or both of these guys could rest, so this is something to keep an eye on. Obviously, if Doncic sits out, we can look to Trey Burke and Jalen Brunson to pick up more touches, while Tim Hardaway would be a volume hog if either of these two sits out.
Clippers at Rockets preview
LAC -11.5, total: 227
The Clippers are on the second leg of a back-to-back here as well, and both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are deemed questionable for this game. Given the questionable tag with nothing to play for on the second half of a back-to-back, it may be wise to consider them closer to doubtful. With both of them out this season, all of Terance Mann, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Marcus Morris see boosts in minutes, touches, and volume and would all become viable options given the enticing matchup.
The potential absences of George and Leonard would obviously hinder the Clippers defensively as well and Houston presents us with some of the best value on the slate. While not a value, Kelly Olynyk at $8,200 could be considered underpriced, as he’s averaged over 47 DraftKings points per game with the trio of John Wall, Christian Wood, and Kevin Porter out in four games this season. He also sees a 7.26% bump in usage rate and with a rate of 29.29%, he’s rocking similar rates to players priced $2,000 more than he is.
Outside of Olynyk, Kenyon Martin is a high-ceiling play at his price while Jae'Sean Tate should continue to see ball-handling duties. With DaQuan Jeffries waived by the team, we should also see more minutes for Armoni Brooks, Anthony Lamb and Khyri Thomas. In order of preference, I lean Thomas, then Brooks, then Lamb.
Kings at Grizzlies preview
MEM -7.5, total: 228
We have two more teams on the second leg of a back-to-back here and given the fact that neither team has anything to play for after playing each other a mere 24 hours ago, it wouldn’t be shocking to see players rest.
On the Grizzlies side, they have over a 64% chance to finish as the No. 9 seed, and given that this is a winnable game without their stars, we could very well see Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson get a breather. This becomes especially likely given the fact they play the Warriors on Saturday and the winner of that game gets the No. 8 seed. In that scenario, it would be hard not to love Xavier Tillman, Tyus Jones and the plethora of shooting guards in Dillon Brooks, De'Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane. If the starters are indeed active, they are all viable in such a juicy matchup.
For the Kings, the usual suspects are likely to be out once again (De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley), but in addition, Richaun Holmes exited Thursday’s game and was unable to return. Assuming that the Kings take a conservative approach and hold him out, Chimezie and Hassan Whiteside should see most of the frontcourt minutes with Metu being the stronger cash-game option, but Whiteside carrying an astronomical ceiling in GPPs.
Delon Wright and Buddy Hield should continue to dominate the touches and usage on offense, and both are viable here, but they don’t feel like two pieces that you absolutely need to get to.
Pelicans at Warriors preview
GSW -5.5, total: 230
The nightcap here is one that will likely provide most of the value on the slate, as the Pelicans have already ruled out Zion Williamson, Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball with Brandon Ingram listed as questionable. It feels unwise of the Pelicans for him to play and given the fact that he’s missed his last four games, he feels closer to doubtful.
With this being the case, we should continue to see a lot of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Eric Bledsoe and Kira Lewis in the backcourt. Of the three, Alexander-Walker has the highest ceiling and after playing 35 minutes last game, it’s fair to say his minutes’ restriction has been lifted. Bledsoe feels like a fine cash-game option, while Lewis should serve more as a GPP value play that likely won’t start but should pick up a ton of second-half run, especially if the game gets out of hand.
In the frontcourt, Willy Hernangomez and Jaxson Hayes should continue to split the center minutes with James Johnson soaking him most of Zion’s vacated minutes. Hernangomez and Johnson feel like floor-plays in cash games given their elevated prices and while they still have ceilings, they’ve failed to really burst through lately. Hayes is a worthwhile GPP option who still carries a low floor but has showcased his ceiling over his last four games with two of them going for over 40 DK points in under 30 minutes each. Naji Marshall is also a viable frontcourt play that offers positional versatility on DraftKings.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins are all listed as questionable and given the fact that this game is meaningless and they need to win Saturday against the Grizzlies, I would expect all three to sit out. This would make Jordan Poole, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Kent Bazemore viable options, with Poole being the highest-upside of the three. The order they are listed in is the exact order that I will be prioritizing them.
