Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’ve reached the final NBA DFS slate of the first half of the season, and if Wednesday was any indication, pre-lock could be a bloodbath once again.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
BOS -8.5, total: 216.5
The Raptors will once again be without OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, so we should continue to see a ton of Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell in this game (assuming Lowry doesn’t sit for rest). Lowry gives you discounted triple-double upside with a 27% assist rate with these three out while Powell has assumed the role of the primary scorer on this team, sporting a 33.2% usage rate without these players on the court.
The difficulty comes in with the frontcourt, as it’s shaping up to be one to avoid. Even with the absences of Siakam and Anunoby, Chris Boucher hasn’t seen 30 minutes over the last two games, raising a ton of red flags surrounding his floor with a thin roster. Aron Baynes has 25-minute upside for under-$4,000, so if looking to punt a center, he could be a decent option.
For Boston, Kemba Walker has topped 40 DK points in three straight games, and he’s posted a usage rate nearing 29% even with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in the fold. Given his minutes (at least 33 in six straight games), he’s a strong play at his price tag. Both Brown and Tatum are viable as well with usage rates hovering around 30%, so I feel best just taking the $1,000 savings with Brown over Tatum here and reallocating that savings elsewhere.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards
LAC -5.5, total: 236
The highest total on the slate also carries two of the most underpriced studs on the slate, and with Kawhi Leonard questionable, it’s easy to just default to Paul George, as his $8,600 price tag is criminally low even if Leonard were to play. This is arguably the best matchup on the entire slate, making him an easy play to avoid overthinking.
If Leonard is active, he’s perfectly viable at $9,100, but I would be lying if I said I didn’t have some reservations understanding that his back spasms could flare up at any given time, like they did last game ahead of tip that resulted in him being a late scratch.
If Leonard is out, there’s also merit to both Reggie Jackson ($3,900), who drew the start for Leonard last game, and Serge Ibaka ($4,800). Both are cheap enough in an elite matchup to boost their floors and provide a nice ceiling relative to their prices.
Russell Westbrook has recorded either a double-double or triple-double in each of his last 10 games and finds himself more expensive than Bradley Beal in this game, who’s been putting up points in bunches himself. The issue with these two, however, is the matchup relative to their prices. While they’re reasonable price tags in a vacuum, it’s harder to stomach them when you consider the matchup against the Clippers, especially when there’s two other superstars that are way too cheap on the other side of this game. They’re viable in tournaments, though, and in this game, I prefer Beal over Westbrook.
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
NYK -5, total: 210.5
Elfrid Payton is doubtful and Derrick Rose is questionable, which paves the way for another Immanuel Quickley game. Regardless of whether he starts (he likely will not), he comes in as an elite play if these two are out after posting 26 raw points in 29 minutes on only 8-21 shooting last game.
Outside of Quickley, I’ll get my Knicks exposure via Julius Randle against a defense that ranks 21st or worse against six of his seven total player traits (per advanced DvP) or Nerlens Noel, who should continue to flirt with 40 minutes per game as long as Taj Gibson remains out.
On the other side of this game, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson are in danger of missing another game, which should open up more shots for Dennis Smith, Saddiq Bey, and Svi Mykhailiuk. Of the three, Smith is the preferred option, as he’s seen at least 27 minutes in three consecutive games while topping 30 DK points in four straight games. This is an ugly matchup in general, so the higher likelihood is that I simply full-fade the Pistons, but Smith would be the top option if I choose to roster one.
Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers
DEN -4.5, total: 225.5
Nikola Jokic is still under $11,000 on DraftKings, and I don’t know why. He’s a consistent 60-70 DK points (at least) and ranks top-two in the NBA in touches per game, making him arguably the most matchup-proof player in DFS this season. If you can get there, you won’t hear me convincing you not to.
Jamal Murray is still a strong tournament play, but at $8,500, I don’t see a need with Malcolm Brogdon on the opposite side of this game for a few hundred dollars less. I also worry about the price on Michael Porter, strictly because of his volatility. I’m more inclined to play him on FanDuel for less at small forward. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be in line for 30-plus minutes with JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap out. You can also get away with Will Barton on FanDuel, as the small forward position is thin, and his price is still too cheap.
On the other side of this game, Domantas Sabonis is a strong play, but I don’t know if I’ll get there simply because I’d rather play someone like Paul George for cheaper, or Bradley Beal for a similar price. That said, he’s ranked in the top-two in touches per game this season, giving him a heap of upside. I’d rather get my Indiana exposure via Brogdon for $8,000 flat, as the Nuggets rank 20th against primary ball handlers and 22nd against dimers this season.
T.J. McConnell is still viable in large-field tournaments (no, not because of his 10 steals Wednesday), as he’s been playing great basketball over the last month. You can also get away with Myles Turner for under $6,000 given his ceiling, especially against a team that will pound the paint with Jokic like Denver does. Giving him upside for a heap of blocks, he’s worth a tournament flyer.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
MIL -6, total: 233.5
With Jrue Holiday back, the Bucks are an easy team to break down in a middling matchup — it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo or bust. He’s posted a 33.7% usage rate, 27.5% assist rate and 18.3% rebounding rate, making him a bargain at $11,000 flat. The issue, however, is the fact that Nikola Jokic is $100 less.
Khris Middleton is always someone to consider if trying to hedge your Giannis exposure, but his $8,400 price tag is a bit rich for my blood given the return of Holiday. You could also get away with Brook Lopez in a matchup with a more traditional center, as his $4,300 price tag is a bargain if you see him getting more than 25 minutes in this game.
Memphis players have finally been priced up based on recent performances, and unfortunately, they aren’t playing the Wizards like they did last game. This is a team that I am OK with full-fading on this slate.
Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -4, total: 224.5
Miami’s viability is contingent on the status of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo Thursday. If Butler sits out, we can head back to the well with Goran Dragic for $5,400 on FanDuel, as he leads the team with a near-30% usage rate with Butler off of the floor this season. He’s cheap enough where even in a down game, he can get you there. You can also look towards Kendrick Nunn, who has been playing massive minutes lately. His volume will continue to be through the roof, making him a strong play. Tyler Herro is the third guard that would be viable, but I would prioritize the aforementioned pair ahead of him.
If Adebayo is out, Kelly Olynyk would become an elite value play given his per-minute production history, but if he’s in, he’s an elite play if Butler sits out.
For the Pelicans, there are two players that are catching my eyes — Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson. Ball has ranked third in the entire NBA in spot-ups per game, as he’s completely transformed his game, spotting up 37% of the time. Over his last 10 games, he’s at least three threes in all but two games, with five games going for over 10 three-point attempts. With this change in his offensive approach, he’s established a new floor and is one of my favorite mid-tier point guards on the slate.
Williamson needs little analysis, as his efficiency has been through the roof and his peripherals are starting to come around, as he’s now unlocked the ceiling that we’ve been waiting months for. You can still get away with Brandon Ingram, but being so high on Zion makes it hard to even consider the pivot.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -6, total: 219
Both DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray are reasonably priced once again and against a team that ranks bottom-three in rim protection, both of them see a nice boost. This is especially true for DeRozan, who ranks top-five in the NBA in drives per game. He’s also posted an assist rate north of 40% over the last week, giving him a massive ceiling and a safe floor for his price. Of the two, DeRozan is my preference, but you can’t go wrong with either.
Outside of those two, I have a bit of interest in Jakob Poeltl given the projected low ownership and the lack of rim protection on the Thunder side. He’s demonstrated a ceiling north of 40 DraftKings points, making him an elite tournament play with people either paying all the way up or all the way down at center.
The only Thunder player that I have interest in is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s a safe bet for 40-plus DraftKings points and leads the NBA in drives per game. He’s far from a core play, but if pressing for Thunder exposure, Gilgeous-Alexander is your guy.
Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -5, total: 238
This sets up as one of the best fantasy environments on the slate, but the Kings have been priced up for the occasion. While Harrison Barnes has seen his price jump over $7,000, he’s also topped 40 fantasy points in three straight games, giving him a rock-solid floor in this matchup. His price increase is easier to stomach than a $6,700 Marvin Bagley.
You can also get away with De'Aaron Fox for under $9,000 against Damian Lillard, who has been a rather poor defender from a statistical standpoint this season. The expected pace here also caters to Fox’s skill set. Both Buddy Hield and Richaun Holmes are viable in tournaments, but they are both too volatile to consider in cash games.
For Portland, it’s really tough to get away from Lillard here, as he’s up there with Jokic as my top overall spend-up on the slate. To truly understand just how good this spot is for him, see the aDvP image below:
As always, if you are scripting this game where Lillard has a floor game, you may want to hedge your Lillard exposure with Gary Trent, Carmelo Anthony or Robert Covington. All three have shown the willingness to operate as a shot-heavy player as of late and given their upside from beyond the arc in this matchup, they all have respective tournament appeal.
Enes Kanter is also viable in tournaments and you can even get away with him in cash games against a rather big frontcourt.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -6, total: 225
The Warriors are a team I typically have interest in, but a matchup with the Suns is never going to get me excited. Because of Stephen Curry’s price and matchup, I prefer Lillard and Fox in the game before this. He still, however, is viable in tournaments strictly based on his ceiling.
Draymond Green has also been priced up a bit in a tough matchup, but the fact that he doesn’t rely on offensive production makes him a bit more immune to the matchup. With that said, there are still better options in small-field tournaments on this slate. Outside of those two, I have no interest at all in Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins or the supporting cast. The only exception would be if Oubre sits out for the second consecutive game, as we’d then get another spot-start from Kent Bazemore, who would be a viable value play.
For the Suns, all three of Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are viable in this pace-up spot. Paul’s price is still conducive to cash-games, as he’s an incredibly safe bet for 40-plus fantasy points and doesn’t typically suffer from a Booker or Ayton ceiling game based on his role as a facilitator.
I prefer Booker over Ayton given the ceilings they’ve shown this season, but Ayton is still a viable option under $7,000.
