Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
While we have 10 total NBA games on the NBA DFS slate Wednesday, there aren’t a ton of high totals and there’s a heap of injury news to sift through.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons preview
POR -7.5, total: 221.5
The Blazers continue to adjust to their new rotation with Norman Powell coming over from Toronto and Jusuf Nurkic making his return, but these additions haven’t hindered the production of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Lillard has seen a slight dip in points per game over his last three (22.0 ppg) but has averaged 9.7 assists per game (1.9 more than his season average) and a trio of rebounds in each game. McCollum, on the other hand, has averaged 26.7 points per game over that same span to go along with 7.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game. Both are incredibly viable at their reasonable prices against a weak defense.
Powell is still viable, but it’s hard to trust him in anything more than large-field tournaments considering he’s seen under 30 minutes in two of his first three games with the Blazers. The same can be said for Enes Kanter, who’s minutes have been all over the place since Nurkic’s return. Robert Covington is the other viable asset here, as he’s topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and his price hasn’t moved at all. His minutes are secure, and his defensive peripheral upside is astronomical.
The Pistons are also appealing here, as Portland’s defense has been one to attack all season. With Dennis Smith and Rodney McGruder already ruled out, we can go right back to the well with Saben Lee, who’s still only $4,300 after drawing consecutive starts and topping 25 DraftKings points in each of his last two games. He should be one of the more popular value options on the slate. From there, both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are appealing, but they’re both volatile enough where I don’t think I’d go here in cash on a 10-game slate.
Hamidou Diallo is the other target for the Pistons that I have interest in. He logged his first start for them last game en route to a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double. Given the fact that we’ve seen box scores like this in Oklahoma City when he was given the chance, he’s too cheap at $4,600 if he draws another start.
Heat at Pacers preview
MIA -1.5, total: 218
On a 10-game slate, there are bound to be a handful of games that simply don’t take priority. This is one of them. Both these teams rank among the top-12 in defensive efficiency, and while Indiana ranks ninth in pace, the Heat are all the way down at 26th in the league.
The usual suspects are the only players that I am considering in this game from both teams. That means Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert for the Pacers (though LeVert should see a lot of Jimmy Butler). Of the three, Brogdon is the most appealing given his $7,000 price on DraftKings. That’s simply too cheap for a player averaging 21.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game over his last 10 games.
For the Heat, Butler and Bam Adebayo remain viable in just about any matchup. Since Adebayo’s return March 16, he’s averaged 1.35 DKP/min on a 24.8% usage rate and 23.8% assist rate. Over that same span, Butler has averaged 1.22 DKP/min with a 25.4% usage rate and 27.3% assist rate. With both being under $9,000, they’re elite targets in the $8,000 range.
If Kendrick Nunn misses his second consecutive game, we should see Goran Dragic slide into the starting lineup again. Unfortunately, he’s been far too volatile to trust and has shown literally zero ceiling, making him an easy fade, even at $5,100.
Mavericks at Celtics preview
BOS -0.5, total: 225
Jaylen Brown is questionable once again for the Celtics after missing their last game against the Pelicans. In that game, we saw Jayson Tatum absolutely take over to the tune of 34 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists in 40 minutes. If Brown is out once again, we can go back to Tatum with confidence given the fact that he’s at or under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Kemba Walker posted a 27.4% usage rate in that game, second on the team to only Tatum. While his 0.95 DKP/min clip was a bit disappointing, this is a plus matchup that makes him viable at his price. Evan Fournier would also be a viable GPP play. He posted a massive dud (0-13 from the field, 0.31 DKP/min) and should come with zero ownership. Regardless of the status of Brown, I want exposure to Robert Williams. The Mavs rank in the bottom-half of the league in field-goal percentage allowed in the restricted area and on the defensive end, Williams has been racking up blocks like nobody’s business. He’s especially enticing for $6,300 on FanDuel.
For the Mavs, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis remain off the injury report and are expected to suit up Wednesday. He posted over 43 DraftKings points last game and while at first glance, that seems disappointing, he did it in only 28 minutes. Assuming this game stays close, we should continue to see him hover between 1.5-2.0 fantasy points per minute, making him an elite spend-up. Porzingis is a great option if fading Doncic, as the Celtics defense ranks 24th against scorers, 25th against stretch bigs, and 21st against rebounders, per FTN’s advanced DvP.
Outside of those two, Maxi Kleber is the only ancillary piece I have interest in, and it’s specific to FanDuel given his $4,100 price tag. While his floor certainly is low, he has upside for 30-40 FanDuel points given his ability to fill the stat sheet and potential for 30 or more minutes.
Rockets at Nets preview
BKN -12.5, total: 232
James Harden has now topped 70 DraftKings points in consecutive games, and with Kyrie Irving making his return last game and falling just short of 50 DraftKings points, the duo proved once again their ability to co-exist. Against a sieve of a defensive unit in the Rockets, the only thing standing between these two and ceiling games once again is a potential blowout. Both are viable, but not necessarily core plays.
The Rockets certainly have some intrigue here, even in a potential blowout, given the lack of depth and the lack of defense that the Nets play. With John Wall questionable with fluid in his knee, my gut is telling me that he sits. If that becomes the case, it’ll be incredibly hard to get away from Kevin Porter at his price. With Wall, Eric Gordon and the now-traded Victor Oladipo off the court, Porter has posted a 29.8% usage rate, 31.4% assist rate, and 1.14 DKP/min since getting called up.
Christian Wood would also be a viable play assuming he’s a full-go, averaging a 32.8% usage rate and 1.24 DKP/min over that same span with those players out. The interior is where teams have brutalized the Nets, as well. If Wood is unable to suit up, we can default right back to Kelly Olynyk, who has been an absolute beast in Wood’s absence since joining the Rockets. This would also thrust Ben McLemore, Sterling Brown and Jae'Sean Tate into bigger roles. All serve as viable values, with my preference being Tate, Brown, McLemore.
Jazz at Grizzlies preview
UTA -5.5, total: 227
This is another one of those rather unappealing games, as both of these teams are in the top seven in defensive efficiency on the season. This is also a specific matchup that we’ve seen twice over the last week. The difference in this game, however, is the fact that Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out for personal reasons.
This should catapult the backcourt trio of Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson into elite territory. With Mitchell off the floor this season, Clarkson leads the team with a 31.6% usage rate and averages 1.18 DKP/min, while Conley has posted a 23.2% usage rate and 1.09 DKP/min. Of the three, Clarkson is my preferred option on FanDuel is Clarkson, as he’s $1,000 cheaper than Conley. Conley, however, is my preference on DraftKings as he’s only $300 more than Clarkson.
Rudy Gobert could also see a slight uptick in volume and topped 40 DK points in each of the previous two games against Memphis over the last week.
For Memphis, Jonas Valanciunas is my top target. He’s been an elite per-minute producer over his last 10 games, averaging 1.32 DKP/min to go along with a 23.4% usage rate and 22.4% rebounding rate. If he can get 30 minutes, his ceiling is astronomical. Ja Morant is also a viable play, but I’d rather look elsewhere in this range at the guard position. With Grayson Allen questionable, we could see an expanded role for either Desmond Bane or De'Anthony Melton, both of whom would be viable. I would prefer whoever starts, if one does, as one of my top value options on the slate.
Raptors at Thunder preview
TOR -8, total: 223
The Thunder are once again set to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort, opening up plenty of backcourt minutes for Theo Maledon, Ty Jerome, Svi Mykhailiuk and Kenrich Williams. While all four offer some sort of salary relief, the only two that I have much interest in are Jerome and Mykhailiuk. Maledon feels too expensive and these two offer enough point-per-dollar upside that I’m okay with using them as lineup fillers if needed.
In the frontcourt, I am OK going right back to the well with Moses Brown after a Monday dud. While he only posted six points and nine rebounds, he still saw 30 minutes of action and should be in line for that amount of playing time or more on Wednesday. Given his upside of over 50 DraftKings points, he’s an elite mid-tier center, though more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings. Isaiah Roby and Aleksej Pokusevski are viable as well, with Poku being the preferred option having logged over 30 minutes in four straight games and topping 30 DraftKings points in two of his last four.
The Raptors find themselves in a viable spot here, as the Thunder have been a team giving up heaps of fantasy production. With Kyle Lowry’s minutes shakier than normal right now, I prefer going $500 up to Fred VanVleet on DraftKings. He’s also underpriced at the shooting guard position on FanDuel. While not a core play by any means, he’s one of the safest mid-tier targets on the slate with upside for more. Pascal Siakam is also a tad underpriced on DraftKings, making him a fine target, but not someone I would target at his current price on FanDuel.
OG Anunoby is the other Raptors player worth targeting, as he’s topped 32 DraftKings points in six consecutive games and hasn’t seen less than 28 minutes once over his last 10.
Knicks at Timberwolves preview
NYK -3.5, total: 218
The Knicks come into this game unsure whether they’ll have Derrick Rose on the court against the Wolves, which could open up some extra minutes in an exploitable matchup for both Elfrid Payton and Immanuel Quickley. Between the two, Quickley carries the higher ceiling but at $4,100, it’s hard to have absolutely zero interest in Payton in tournaments if Rose is out, assuming he would draw the start.
This would also mean more usage for RJ Barrett and Julius Randle, who comes into one of the best matchups of the day per advanced DvP:
Both are viable, but Randle is my preferred option by a significant margin. This is also a fine spot to target Nerlens Noel, who should continue to see 30 minutes with Mitchell Robinson out for the foreseeable future. He’s topped 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and given his defensive abilities, he doesn’t have to have an outstanding game from a points production standpoint to get you there. At only $4,900 on DraftKings, he’s an elite value play at the center position.
This is the exact opposite of a matchup for the Wolves, as the Knicks have been one of the best defensive units in basketball this season. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are the default options here, but neither is a core plays and frankly, neither is a player I would have a ton of exposure to in MME builds unless going with a full game-stack.
Kings at Spurs preview
SAS -2.5, total: 230.5
This was a game that we saw Monday, resulting in a 132-115 win for the Kings in a game that racked up points early and often. Three Kings players (De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Richaun Holmes) all posted 20 or more raw points while seven total players scored in double digits. While it was an all-around team effort, my attention is still only on a few here.
Fox, being the top target, has now posted a 32.2% usage rate, 25.1% assist rate, and 1.33 DKP/min over his last two weeks and honestly, feels a couple hundred dollars underpriced on DraftKings at $9,300, as his ceiling he’s shown is around 60 DraftKings points this season. Holmes and Haliburton are the other two that I have a strong interest in. Holmes has topped 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three and should garner zero ownership in the $7,000 range on DraftKings, while Haliburton has logged at least 32 minutes in seven of his last eight games. He gives you a massive discount off Fox if you want exposure to this backcourt and has a nice floor/ceiling combination for his $6,100 tag.
For the Spurs, I will continue to target both Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan at their respective prices in plus matchups. With the Kings being one of the worst transition defenses (and overall defenses) in the league this season, both players are in great spots to succeed. Between the two, my lean is Murray as he has a higher ceiling in terms of defensive peripheral production, especially facing off against Fox. He posted 43.5 DraftKings points in their last meeting and this is a performance that I feel confident to expect a repeat in.
Jakob Poeltl also had a massive game against the Kings Monday, posting a 17-point, 11-rebound double-double with a trio of blocks and a pair of assists. That game made it two consecutive games topping 38 DraftKings points and three straight games over 30 minutes of playing time. At $5,800, he’s worth a look in tournaments, as he should be incredibly low-owned.
Bucks at Lakers preview
MIL -9, total: 222
This was once an awaited matchup earlier in the season, but with LeBron James and Anthony Davis sidelined, this is a game that could get out of hand quickly.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always viable at a $10,500 price tag, but it comes down to whether you think he outscores the other studs on the slate. While he certainly has the potential, even in limited minutes, the potential gamescript here has me slotting him behind Luka Doncic and James Harden on this slate. The same can be said here about both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, who are viable mid-tier targets, just not ones I would prioritize over many of the players I listed earlier in this article.
The Lakers find themselves not only depleted, but in a difficult matchup as well. Because of this, it’s hard for me to love anyone here, but I understand the appeal of any of their trio in Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell. Over the last two weeks without the superstars, Schroder has led the team with a 26.7% usage rate and a team-leading 34.7% assist rate, while averaging 1.16 DKP/min. Harrell has posted the same per-minute production clip, only with a usage rate of 23.7% and a 16.0% rebounding rate. Kuzma’s production has been a bit more erratic, but he’s shown a new level of peripheral production, posting a 20.2% assist rate and 12.1% rebounding rate over this span. All three are viable, but not necessarily core or cash-game plays. If you think this game gets out of hand, then it would be smart to target Talen Horton-Tucker, who gets the brunt of his playing time in blowouts. He’s posted a usage rate over 21% over the last two weeks without the stars, but on the season as a whole, has averaged a 25.3% usage rate without them. There’s certainly upside here, but it’s a risky value play that hinges on a specific game script.
Andre Drummond is also expected to make his Lakers’ debut Wednesday. While his minutes are up in the air, there’s a strong chance that he takes over the starting center role and for under $8,000, he certainly has a ceiling being the per-minute producer that he is. This is far from a safe play, but worth a shot in GPPs if we get word he’s starting.
Bulls at Suns preview
PHO -7, total: 219
Wednesday’s nightcap is another somewhat unappealing game, as the Bulls head to Phoenix to take on one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, one that is coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Since the acquisition of Nikola Vucevic, both he and Zach LaVine have been coexisting well. Vucevic, himself, is posting 1.40 DKP/min with a 25.7% assist rate and 18.4% rebounding rate, while LaVine has maintained his usage rate north of 30% (30.3%). If LaVine suits up, both are fine GPP plays.
That is, however, a massive “if,” as LaVine’s ankle was dubbed “not great” and he was given the questionable tag. If he ends up sitting out, we should see a significant usage bump for not only Vucevic, but Coby White as well. White would be a viable play at only $5,200 on DraftKings, though this is not a favorable matchup.
This is a good spot for the Suns, but on the second leg of a back-to-back, I have my reservations. Of their big three, Devin Booker remains my favorite given his ceiling, while I actually prefer Deandre Ayton at his $6,600 price to Chris Paul at his $8,000 price tag. The back-to-back also has me speculating that Jae Crowder could see his minutes dialed back a touch, which makes me like Cam Johnson and Dario Saric quite a bit for salary relief. Saric just posted over 28 FanDuel points in only 18 minutes Thursday and is a great value power forward, while Cameron Johnson saw 20 minutes for the first time since returning from the COVID-19 list. If Crowder is dialed back, these two are the most likely beneficiaries in a plus matchup.
