Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This week wastes no time around the association, as Monday hits us with a massive 11-game NBA DFS slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards
IND -5, total: 233
This is the first time these teams have met since bubble play and a ton has changed – most notably, the absence of bubble-MVP TJ Warren. Even so, the Pacers are in a great spot to succeed here.
The obvious plays on the Pacers’ side are the duo of Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. The latter is an elite play, but his price is rather restrictive when you can take a $2,600 discount and get exposure through Brogdon. Speaking of Brogdon, he’s posted 35 or more DraftKings points in eight of his last 10 games. Clearly, the presence of Caris LeVert hasn’t deterred Brogdon, making him an elite play at $7,000 on DraftKings and even more so at $6,500 on FanDuel. LeVert himself is a fine GPP play, but he’s more volatile than the aforementioned two.
For the Wizards, Bradley Beal is listed as questionable with a hip injury. If he ends up sitting out, it would be hard to pass on Russell Westbrook as the top overall option on the slate. Even if Beal is active, Westbrook is a perfectly fine option at the top. Beal, himself, would be a worthwhile GPP play at his $9,100 price tag, but he’s had a level of volatility lately that makes him harder to trust than his aforementioned teammate.
As always, the only other Wizards player who I trust is Rui Hachimura, as he’s logged 34 or more minutes in eight straight games and hasn’t attempted less than 10 shots in a single one of those. With coach Scott Brooks openly trying to get Hachimura more involved, the intentionality behind his uptick in production keeps him on my radar.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics
BOS -3.5, total: 230.5
We’re seeing it. We’re finally seeing it. Zion Williamson has now topped 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games for the first time this season, averaging 38.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.0 stocks (steals plus blocks) in 37 minutes per game. There is no defense right now that can stop him, especially the Celtics’ defense that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. You don’t have to twist my arm to play him, go crazy with it.
Brandon Ingram is always a viable pivot off of Williamson in the right matchup, but I’m OK fading him here if you don’t have Williamson. I’d rather get exposure through Nickeil Alexander-Walker if Lonzo Ball is once again ruled out. He’s topped 32 DraftKings points in four consecutive games on the back of 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 stocks in 33.9 minutes per game. Josh Hart would also be a worthwhile play, as he’s seen at least 27 minutes in four consecutive games.
The Celtics find themselves in an elite spot here, as the Pelicans rank 28th in defensive efficiency. With Kemba Walker expected back on an island game and the potential for Evan Fournier to make his Boston debut, we could see a healthy rotation on Monday. Because of this, I feel most comfortable limiting my exposure to Jayson Tatum ($8,600) and Jaylen Brown ($8,000). Both feel a touch cheap on DraftKings and given their likelihood to attempt at least 20 shots here, they make for phenomenal cash-game plays.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -12, total: 240
We’re only three games into the slate, but it may be wise to consider this one of the best games to target on the slate.
The Timberwolves have been a putrid team from the standpoint of a fan, but they’ve provided enough value in DFS and come into one of the best matchups on the slate. Karl-Anthony Towns is fighting for the top overall center spot on the slate, as he faces a Brooklyn interior that ranks 22nd or worse against six of Towns’ seven traits, per aDvP:
If you want to opt for Towns as your top spend up, you won’t get any backlash from me. This could also be a great spot to get exposure to Anthony Edwards, though he may be a bit risky for cash given his inefficiency from the field. Without D'Angelo Russell this season, he’s posted a 28.4% usage rate and 1.01 DKP/min, giving him a heap of upside in this matchup.
This will be Malik Beasley’s second game since returning from his suspension, logging 30 minutes in his return. While he only shot 23.5%, the 17 total shot attempts speak volume (pun definitely intended) to his upside, making him one of my favorite small forward plays on FanDuel at only $5,600.
For the Nets, it’s hard to argue with James Harden as one of the top overall plays on the slate. Not that analytics are needed to justify this play, but he’s averaged 1.79 DKP/min over the last four weeks without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while posting a 38.3% usage rate and 57.7% assist rate. Even with Kyrie Irving coming back, his sub-$11,000 price tag is simply too cheap. If Irving himself is primed for a full workload, he makes sense for under $10,000 as well.
The only other Nets player who I have a passing interest in is Nicolas Claxton. While the log-jam of bigs certainly works against him, he’s still logged at least 22 minutes in six straight games. At only $4,200, you can do a lot worse for his price.
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
MIA -4, total: 207
While the last game we touched on serves as a gold-mine for DFS production, this game may as well be the exact opposite, as both teams rank within the top six in defensive efficiency and the bottom four in pace.
Even so, with Victor Oladipo and Kendrick Nunn already ruled out for the Heat, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic should command the lion’s share of the backcourt minutes and come in a touch cheap, as both are under $6,000. Dragic would be my lean for $400 less and the likelihood that he starts in place of Kendrick Nunn. Both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are great tournament plays, per usual, it just doesn’t feel like a spot where you need to get there.
The Knicks suffered a brutal loss when Mitchell Robinson fractured his foot last game and with Julius Randle listed as questionable, they could be incredibly thin in the frontcourt. Regardless of whether or not Randle plays, Nerlens Noel is an elite value play at $4,800 given the 30+ minutes he’s going to step into with his rebounding/stock upside. If Randle misses, you can add Taj Gibson to the value pool in the frontcourt, but he’s far less appealing in this matchup than Noel.
If Randle is out, we should continue to see Alec Burks as a primary option on offense. He’s logged 20 or more raw points in five straight games, making him a fine play in this scenario. Derrick Rose would also be an elite play at under $5,000 given his near-30% usage rate, as would RJ Barrett given his ability to stuff the stat sheet. If Randle is in, it knocks the stock of all three of those players in a difficult matchup and Randle himself would be a fine GPP play in large-field formats.
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons
TOR -3.5, total: 216
The Raptors come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after a loss to the Blazers in a game where Kyle Lowry sat out. With that being the case, it would make sense to see him suit up in this game as long as his foot soreness isn’t too serious. If that’s the case, he’s simply too cheap on FanDuel at $6,500. Fred VanVleet remains underpriced regardless of the status of Lowry, as $7,400 for a 24% usage rate, 25.9% assist rate and 1.08 FDP/min is a phenomenal bargain in a favorable matchup. Pascal Siakam is viable as well, but he’s third on my list here given his price.
With Dennis Smith Jr. ruled out for the Pistons on the other side of this game, we could see another spot start for Saben Lee, who’s priced at only $3,800 on DraftKings. If he’s confirmed as the starter, he’ll be an elite value play after playing 24 minutes last game and posting over 25 DraftKings points. Cory Joseph at $3,900 would be the pivot off of Lee if he becomes chalky, as he saw 29 minutes last game and posted 23.5 DraftKings points.
Outside of the two guards, however, it’s hard to get excited about Jerami Grant given the extreme volatility he’s seen in his peripheral production. Mason Plumlee is a bit more appealing against a weak interior, as he’s posted three double-doubles in his last four games and is relatively cheap ($6,300 on DraftKings).
Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets
MEM -7, total: 224.5
While this game could very well be a blowout given how poorly the Rockets have played over the better part of the season, it’s hard to not sprint to the combination of Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas here. Morant should absolutely thrive in this matchup, as the Rockets are one of the worst transition defenses in basketball and his $7,500 price tag leaves room for a ceiling relative to his salary.
Valanciunas is an elite play as well, but more so if Christian Wood ends up suiting up, as this would bode well for his playing time. Regardless, his $7,700 price tag is conducive to a ceiling game, as he’s averaged 1.45 DKP/min over the last two weeks with a 28.3% rebounding rate. This also sets up to be an interesting spot for Kyle Anderson, who’s posted 31 or more DK points in two of his last four games. At $5,500, there’s certainly ceiling potential here at incredibly low ownership.
On the other side of this game, the Rockets’ stock hinges on the availability of Christian Wood, who was a late scratch last game against the Timberwolves. If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with Kevin Porter Jr., who would once again see the brunt of the usage outside of John Wall. The latter would also be a viable play here assuming he’s in. Of the two, I prefer the savings on Porter Jr. given the abundance of guards on the slate.
If Wood is ruled out again, this would set up to be another smash spot for Kelly Olynyk, who has thrived when given the opportunity for an expanded role. He posted 34.5 DraftKings points in his first start with the Rockets’ last game in 25 minutes on the back of 16 points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals. His $900 price rise to $4,400 was simply not enough, making him an elite value with his PF/C eligibility if Wood is ruled out. If Wood is in, Olynyk would still be viable if he draws the start at the power forward.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DAL -10.5, total: 217.5
The Mavs have been without both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis for two consecutive games, but neither find themselves on the injury report for Monday. Doncic is always in play, especially under $11,000 in the current form he’s in, and in a favorable matchup, he’s one of the top three overall plays on the slate.
Porzingis should have his way with this frontcourt and while his $8,100 price tag on DraftKings is appealing, he’s $200 cheaper on FanDuel, making him a very strong power forward option. With both of these players back and healthy, there’s no need to look elsewhere on this team.
The Thunder are one of the more unappealing teams on the slate, especially with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort both out. The only player who’s in my player pool and has a legitimate shot at making my single-entry lineup is Moses Brown. One day after posting a 21-point, 23-rebound double-double against the Celtics, he was rewarded with a multi-year contract from the Thunder. He’s seen 30 or more minutes in three straight games and still feels too cheap at $6,500 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings. Hopefully, the price scares people off of him here because this is a great spot against a Dallas defense that is allowing a 64.5% field goal percentage in the restricted area this season.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -2.5, total: 228
Dejounte Murray’s price keeps falling, despite stringing together back-to-back 39.5-DraftKings-point games and now stepping into one of the best on-paper matchups he can get. At $7,100 on DraftKings, it’s hard not to love Murray here, as the Kings allow the most transition points per possession (1.24) in the league and the seventh-most transition points per game (20.5). If looking for a mid-tier point guard, Murray is my favorite option.
Outside of Murray, you can really get away with most of the Spurs’ starting lineup. DeMar DeRozan should continue to be the focal point, sporting a 28.6% usage rate and a 29.8% assist rate over the last two weeks. $7,900 is simply too cheap for him here. From there, Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson would be my targets, though I much prefer them in large-field GPPs given their volatility.
For the Kings, De'Aaron Fox is always viable, but with his price now up to $9,500 on DraftKings, it’s hard to stomach in a pretty tough individual matchup with Dejounte Murray. I would rather take the savings and opt for Tyrese Haliburton ($6,100). While his ceiling isn’t quite as high, his per-dollar upside is arguably higher because of how expensive Fox is. You can also get away with Richaun Holmes given his sheer upside, but there are so many other center options on the slate that I am more inclined to get to.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz
UTA -16, total: 220.5
Perhaps the most unattractive game on the slate from a DFS standpoint, this game has everything DFS players stay away from – a lower total (220.5), and this seems like a good chance to bet the under, and a massive spread (-16).
The only player that I have an interest in on the Cleveland side is Larry Nance Jr. While his $7,000 price tag may feel high and instill some sticker shock, he’s quietly posted 39 or more DraftKings points in three straight games, averaging 16.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 stocks in 31.8 minutes per game.
For the Jazz, you can get away with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, but given the game script, that seems unwise on an 11-game slate. Jordan Clarkson would be the most appealing option here, as he offers salary relief (especially on FanDuel) and should still see the court in a potential blowout.
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
CHI -2, total: 226.5
The new-look Bulls got crushed in Nikola Vucevic’s debut, but step right back into a good spot against a weak Warriors’ defense on Monday.
In that debut, Vucevic posted a 22.1% usage rate, down from his season average with Orlando, but still posted 1.19 DKP/min. Against such a weak interior, he is on my radar in GPPs. Zach LaVine maintained his offensive dominance with a 29.5% usage rate in that game, he simply had a down game posting only 0.81 DKP/min. In what I expect to be a bounce-back spot, he’s viable in tournaments as well. Outside of the two all-stars, I don’t have enough faith in the ancillary Bulls to trust them here.
The Warriors may have some good news on the horizon, as Stephen Curry is listed as questionable for this game after going through full workouts over the weekend. If active, that would knock the stock of Jordan Poole significantly and make Curry a worthwhile GPP play (if there is no listed minutes restriction). If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with both Poole and Andrew Wiggins, as both have posted usage rates over 25% (Wiggins at 30%) over the last two weeks without Curry.
Draymond Green also becomes more viable if Curry ends up active, as it gives him one more elite shooter to help him rack up assists and move the offense around. Plus, Curry’s presence works wonders for the pace of a game, something that helps Green thrive.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -2.5, total: 232
With all three of the stars in this game not listed on the injury report, the nightcap presents us with a star-studded game that could be one of many potential finals previews.
At under $11,000, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a very interesting spend-up. On paper, this is an incredibly tough matchup, yet most recently posted a 36/14/5 stat line with four blocks against the Clippers in their last meeting on February 28. In fact, since the beginning of the 2019-20 season, Giannis has averaged 33.7 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in three games against this team. Giannis my top overall spend-up considering the spread of this game relative to the other stars’ games and a star that it’s not impossible to pair with Harden, Irving, or Doncic with on FanDuel.
If fading Giannis, you can certainly pivot to Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton, as this is expected to be a wire-to-wire battle where the Bucks will need all the firepower they can get. Of the two, Middleton is my lean given his higher usage rate on offense.
For the Clippers, both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are, once again, far too cheap on DraftKings. Only $400 separates the two at under $9,000 and with both so cheap, it’s like splitting hairs when trying to choose one. While both elite plays, Leonard is my lean given George’s volatility lately and Leonard’s 1.31 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks.
Ivica Zubac is the other player who I want to target here, as he’s been great with Serge Ibaka out over the last two weeks. Over those seven games, he’s averaged 11.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 1.4 assists in 28.9 minutes, and given the size of Milwaukee, we should see him right around that 30-minute mark once again.
