Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA has just a three-game main slate Sunday and with the Orlando Magic suddenly changing the landscape of NBA DFS, this is a very intriguing slate, despite the size of it.
Let’s get after it, shall we?
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -1, total: 215.5
Just days after trading with each other at the deadline, these two teams will square off. Damian Lillard missed Portland’s last game with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for this contest. In his absence the other night, recently acquired Norman Powell immediately slid into the starting lineup, scoring 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes. Of course, CJ McCollum was the main beneficiary in Lillard’s absence, touching the ball 94 times, while averaging a gaudy 5.73 seconds per touch, which would be a top-five rate for the entire season. With Lillard off the floor this season, McCollum’s usage rate jumps by 4.7%, putting him at a massive 34.7% rate in the split, while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute. If Lillard is ruled out again, $8,000 on DraftKings isn’t anywhere near enough for McCollum. Meanwhile, Anfernee Simons would become a viable value play on such a small slate. He played 25 minutes with Lillard out last game. Portland saw center Jusuf Nurkic finally return to the lineup the other night and while everyone expected him to be limited, he still scored 23.5 fantasy points in 19 minutes. I’m not ready to roll him out there with full trust just yet but his return does make Enes Kanter even more of a GPP-only option.
Meanwhile, Gary Trent was dealt in the Powell deal and started his first game with the Raptors, logging 30 minutes. He didn’t do much and will likely be the fourth option on this team, which makes him far less appealing than when he was the second option in Portland when McCollum was sidelined. I really like the price tags on both Kyle Lowry ($7,500) and Fred VanVleet ($7,800) on DK in this game. For the season, Portland ranks 29th against dimers and 30th against primary ball handlers, according to our advanced DVP, which are both of VanVleet and Lowry’s archetypes. Finally, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are going to play 38 minutes in any competitive games, which keeps them firmly in play.
Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -4.5, total: 228.5
Denver also made some noise at the deadline, acquiring Aaron Gordon from the Magic. He’s yet to make his Nuggets debut but could do so Sunday night. If he is active, the Denver frontcourt outside of Nikola Jokic becomes extremely crowded with Gordon, Michael Porter, Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green. The Magic were using Gordon as a point forward for much of the season but that was mainly due to the injuries to their guards, so I don’t really see Denver doing that, especially when you have a point center in Jokic. Coming off a 65-fantasy point outing, I have zero clue why Jokic is just $10,400 on DK, but he is at least $500-$600 underpriced. Jamal Murray is also slightly underpriced at $7,700 on DK, as both he and Jokic continue to log huge minutes. It is extremely difficult not to love them here on this slate.
For Atlanta, Trae Young and Clint Capela set up pretty well here. Denver is surrendering the highest field goal percentage in the league from within four feet of the basket (68.6%). Meanwhile, 80% of Capela’s shot attempts this season have come at the rim, which is a top-20 rate in basketball. Then there is Young, who can certainly hurt you from beyond the arc but also does a lot of his work attacking the basket. In fact, his 19.4 drives per game are good for the fourth-most in the NBA, while 8.0 of his 25.7 points per game on the season are coming off drives. John Collins is coming off a huge game and his minutes have been back up as of late, making him a viable GPP play. He hasn’t been as consistent with Capela in the mix, but Collins has still shown those huge ceiling games from time to time. As for the rest of the wings, perhaps you could take a shot on Kevin Huerter or Danilo Gallinari if De'Andre Hunter is ruled out again but with nearly everyone healthy, they are beginning to eat away at each other’s minutes.
Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -7, total: 209.5
The rebuild in Orlando began Thursday night, as the Magic played their first game since trading away half of their roster. With Terrence Ross still out and Michael Carter-Williams a late scratch from the starting lineup, Orlando started Chasson Randle, James Ennis, Dwayne Bacon, Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch, while they only rolled out an eight-man rotation. MCW still played 28 minutes, so it is likely he rejoins the starting lineup, but the team played through Birch, who had 83 touches and 11 paint touches in the game. He went off for a career game, scoring 14 points to go along with 15 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and four steals. Carter-Williams led the team with a healthy 28.6% usage rate, but that number will likely come down if Ross is able to return to the court for this game. When teams roll out such tight rotations, it is definitely something we want to take advantage of and while the sites priced the Orlando players up, it is also only a three-game slate and you always want to load up on players playing huge minutes. Birch at $5,000 on DK would be my favorite option from this team, as he should dominate the glass. He saw 23 rebounding opportunities last game, which would rank top-three in basketball over the course of the season, converting just over 65% of them into boards.
For the Lakers, Dennis Schroder continues to be a fairly safe fantasy option with LeBron James and Anthony Davis sidelined. Over the last seven games, Schroder’s 93.3 touches per game rank fourth in all of basketball, while he’s also ninth in average time of possession per game during that span (7.2 minutes). Montrezl Harrell has also been very productive as of late and with both James and Davis off the floor this season, his rebounding rate is sitting at a strong 29%, while his usage rate climbs all the way up to right around 27%. They remain the two most trustworthy options, while Kyle Kuzma will definitely have his ceiling games now that he is in a much larger role.
