NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for March 20

March Madness is the talk of the town right now, and for good reason. However, we still have NBA action Saturday, with four interesting contests making up the main slate. Let’s take an individual look at each game and see what stands out for fantasy.

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Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -6.5, total: 231

The 76ers will remain without Joel Embiid, but they will also be missing shooting guard Seth Curry, who will be out the next two games with an ankle injury. With Embiid sidelined, we have finally seen Ben Simmons become more aggressive on the offensive end, attempting 14 and 16 field goals over the last two games. With Embiid and Curry off the court this season, Simmons’ usage rate doesn’t suddenly skyrocket but he is posting a very strong 27% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate, while averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute in the split. This is a great spot for Simmons, facing a fast-paced Kings team that struggles on the defensive end. No team in basketball is coughing up more points per possession off transition this season than Sacramento (1.24), while they are also allowing the highest field goal percentage off the play type (58.8%). This bodes extremely well for Simmons, who is averaging the eighth-most transition points per game (4.9), while his 28.9% frequency rate off the play type is the seventh-highest mark in the league. Those transition numbers also benefit Tobias Harris, who is tied with Simmons in transition points per game on the season (4.9), while he’s sporting a team-high 28.5% usage rate with Embiid and Curry off the floor. He and Simmons are expensive, but this is a four-game slate and it’s hard to find a better spot for players than this one.

Meanwhile, you could give someone like Furkan Korkmaz a look with Curry out. $4,600 isn’t a price that screams “must play” but he could walk into 25-30 minutes and his usage rate is pushing 23% with Embiid and Curry off the floor this season. Danny Green is the much safer bet for minutes and is basically the same price tag and is coming off a game where he attempted 15 shots. Both are in play, while Dwight Howard, despite still coming off the bench, remains viable at $6,000. He is sporting a massive 49% rebounding rate with Embiid off the floor this season and over his last five games, Howard is averaging a strong 18.8 rebounding chances per game, good for the eighth-most in the league during that span. 

For the Kings, this is a spot I used Buddy Hield in the past and it went well, as he went for 40.5 fantasy points. I like him again here, as the 76ers are surrendering the second-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season (5.9), while also allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (44.9%). Hield, meanwhile, is averaging 2.6 points per game off screens this year, good for the sixth-most in basketball. Meanwhile, De'Aaron Fox is expensive here, but the upside is certainly there, especially with Embiid out. Fox is averaging 18.2 drives per game on the season, the sixth-most in the NBA, so he could benefit from not having Embiid patrolling the paint. Finally, I am still perfectly fine with Tyrese Haliburton, who continues to start and play mid-30’s minutes with Marvin Bagley sidelined. His $5,700 price tag on DraftKings is perfectly fine.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -5.5, total: 219

The Warriors were without Stephen Curry Friday and it resulted in 40 real points from Andrew Wiggins. Curry is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s rematch with the Grizzlies, so at just $6,300 on DraftKings, Wiggins is still a very strong option. With Curry off the floor this season, Wiggins’ usage rate climbs by around six%, putting him at a strong 28.3% mark in the split. We also saw Jordan Poole enter the starting lineup and play 34 minutes, scoring 34 fantasy points. I’d expect him to start again and is a very solid option at $5,100 on DK. He is sporting a 26% usage rate with Curry off the floor this season, while averaging a solid 1.10 fantasy points per minute in the split. It was also encouraging to see Draymond Green record 13 assists with Curry out of the lineup, while he also hauled in 11 rebounds. You’d like to see him attempt more shots with Curry sidelined but the peripherals are always, always going to be there with Green. In a game where he didn’t make a single field goal, Green still scored over 40 fantasy points. That is impressive. 

Ja Morant has been under 30 fantasy points in each of his last three games, resulting in his price dropping all the way to $7,200 on DK. He has a decent combination of floor and ceiling at that price tag and the Warriors are still playing pretty fast this season. This is an interesting opportunity to buy-low, so to speak, on the uber-talented Morant. Jonas Valanciunas is still very much in play against a weak Warriors interior that is coughing up the most points per game off putbacks this season (7.3), while JoVal’s 3.7 putback points per game on the year are good for the third-most in all of basketball.

San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -9.5, total: 230.5

DeMar DeRozan returned to the Spurs lineup Friday and posted a solid stat line of 20 points, seven assists and one rebound. His assist numbers have been way up this season, which has helped mask his inconsistent rebounding totals. This is a massive pace-up spot for the Spurs and DeRozan continues to see plenty of usage, especially with LaMarcus Aldridge not returning to the lineup. Dejounte Murray, meanwhile, still has plenty of upside at his price, especially against a fast-paced team like Milwaukee. His rebounds have been strong all year long, as his 11.3 rebounding chances per game on the season are the second-most on the team behind Jakob Poeltl. Speaking of rebounds, how about Keldon Johnson? The rookie hauled in 21 boards against the Cavaliers on Friday, while adding 23 points, two assists and two blocks. Johnson is now back to his normal minutes and at $5,400 on DK, projects as the top play from this San Antonio team.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is easily the top star on this slate and it isn’t really close. Prioritizing him on such a small slate definitely makes sense, as he’s essentially a lock for 50-plus fantasy points. Meanwhile, the price tags on Khris Middleton ($7,500) and Jrue Holiday ($6,500) are very, very intriguing, despite how underwhelming Middleton has been as of late. Brook Lopez has been playing much better as of late and if he is going to keep playing huge minutes, a $5,000 price tag remains a bit too cheap.

Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -9.5, total: 232

Once again, I think both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are too cheap, especially George at $8,300. We’ve seen opposing teams and players get hot from beyond the arc against Charlotte’s zone-heavy defense, as 39.8% of the points scored against the Hornets this season have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in the NBA. They are also very bad against spot-up shooters, coughing up a league-leading 38.5 spot-up points per game. That could bode well for Marcus Morris, whose 5.9 spot-up points per game on the year are tied for the sixth-most in all of basketball. His minutes have been high as of late and if Serge Ibaka (back) sits out again, you should feel good about Morris’ minutes, especially since he’s recently been starting over Nicolas Batum. You’d also feel better about Ivica Zubac’s minutes, who has started each of the last two games, posting consecutive 32.75-point outings. With Ibaka off the floor this season, Zubac is averaging a fantasy point per minute, while sporting a healthy 34% rebounding rate.

For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is perfectly fine at $8,100, though he’s been a bit more inconsistent since Devonte’ Graham returned to the lineup. Gordon Hayward has also shown less of a ceiling as of late but he still projects as a safe option at his $7,100 price tag. However, despite his strong play as of late, I don’t see myself paying nearly $7,000 for P.J. Washington on this slate or in this spot.