Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a two-game slate to get our feet wet with the second half of the NBA season, the league wasted no time hitting us with a Behemoth of a slate, scheduling 11 total games for Thursday, March 11.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -4.5, total: 224
After missing just about a month of basketball, Devonte' Graham is expected to return for the Hornets, muddying their backcourt a bit. With LaMelo Ball confirmed as a starter moving forward, it would make sense to see Graham come off of the bench given the offensive stretch that Terry Rozier has put together. Of the three, Ball is the only playable option for me on an 11-game slate and at $9,000, he’s best left for tournaments.
Outside of him, the Hornets are priced up to a point where they’re easy to fade. Cody Zeller, however, is still under $5,000 and draws a matchup with a Pistons team that ranks dead last in the NBA against rebounders, per advanced DvP.
For the Pistons, both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee feel a touch cheap. Grant leads the NBA with 6.9 spot-up points per game, allowing 39.8 spot-up points per game (worst in the NBA) and provides a ceiling of over 50 DraftKings points for under $8,000. Plumlee brings triple-double upside into a matchup against a Hornets defense that ranks 23rd against skilled centers and 25th against rebounders.
Delon Wright could be a solid cash play if he’s a full-go, but if he’s out, there’s merit to Dennis Smith Jr., who’s topped 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -2.5, total: 232
Blake Griffin and Kevin Durant are out for this game, leaving James Harden and Kyrie Irving to continue to shoulder the load for the Nets offense. Over the last two weeks, Harden has posted a 30.6% usage rate, 42.9% assist rate and 1.58 DKP/min, while Irving isn’t far behind with his 29.1% usage rate, 28.9% assist rate, and 1.35 DKP/min clip. The latter provides a nice discount, especially on FanDuel, but both are entirely viable in this matchup.
You can also get away with DeAndre Jordan for $4,900 on FanDuel if looking to get different at the center position. The status of Jeff Green should affect his minutes, but Boston typically roles out a rather large frontcourt with Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson sharing the court quite often.
For the Celtics, it’ll be interesting to see what type of minutes restriction Marcus Smart is on. At $6,000 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel, there’s certainly upside in a pace-up spot against two individual superstars for a ceiling game if we can count on 30+ minutes. This is something to monitor throughout the day. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are viable in this matchup, as there’s literally nobody on the Brooklyn side that can slow either of these two down. My preference is Tatum on FanDuel for under $9,000 while I prefer to defer to Brown for $8,100 on DraftKings.
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
ATL -3, total: 225.5
Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby remain out, which should continue to thrust Kyle Lowry into a do-it-all role, as he’s posted an assist rate north of 50% over the last two weeks with these three out. He’s also posted a 22.9% usage rate and 1.30 DKP/min in this instance, giving him a ton of upside, even for $8,600 on DraftKings and $8,500 on FanDuel.
If I don’t get to Lowry, I want to make a point to get to Norman Powell. He’s posted a 27.4% usage rate without that trio over the last two weeks while adding a 12.5% assist rate and 1.13 DKP/min, proving to be the biggest offensive beneficiary with one or multiple studs out. I’m hoping there’s a sense of sticker-shock among the masses with his price jump, as he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate. Chris Boucher is the only other Raptors player I’d consider and while 25+ minutes seems to be a reliable bet, I’d still reserve him for tournaments given the volatility.
Because I have an interest in multiple Raptors, getting an Atlanta run-back would be a good idea if rostering both Powell and Lowry, or pairing one of them with Boucher.
Trae Young at under $10,000 is always in play, but I’d default to Clint Capela for $7,900 here against a weak frontcourt, or John Collins for $900 less.
Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat
MIA -8, total: 214.5
The Orlando Magic will be without Evan Fournier, but could potentially be getting Aaron Gordon back after a long absence. While his potential limitations would make it tough to warrant playing him, his sheer presence would dampen the appeal of Terrence Ross and Michael Carter-Williams at their elevated prices, especially given his increased usage and assist rates this season. If he’s out, both of them can be considered in tournaments, but are far too volatile relative to their prices for cash consideration.
Nikola Vucevic is a viable option given the matchup without Bam Adebayo, but his price is too hard to stomach given the fact that he’s only $400 cheaper than Luka Doncic on DraftKings. I much prefer him on FanDuel but either way, he’s far from a priority.
For the Heat, Bam Adebayo remains out, which cements Kelly Olynyk as my top overall value option on the slate. He showcased his upside last game with Adebayo out, posting 18 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and a steal in just under 37 minutes. He’s drastically underpriced on FanDuel at $4,500, making him my preferred center option, while his $5,100 tag on DraftKings makes him a priority in two-center builds. Adebayo’s absence also strengthens the floor/ceiling combination for Jimmy Butler, who sports a 28.7% usage rate, 45.5% assist rate, 12.1% rebounding rate and 1.54 DKP/min with him off the floor this season. At what should be low ownership given his price, Butler is an elite option.
You can get away with both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro given the discounts on their prices, but it’s easier to write off Kendrick Nunn, who’s already seen a sharp decrease in minutes since the aforementioned two returned to the rotation.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -3.5, total: 227.5
The Sixers are going to be extremely depleted in this game, as both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are working through the league’s health and safety protocols. This leaves a massive amount of touches and usage on the table for Tobias Harris, who should be one of the safest plays on the slate at $8,100 on DraftKings in this matchup. Because I’m so high on him at that price, his $6,900 price on FanDuel makes him a borderline lock in all formats, and I use that term sparingly.
Things get interesting outside of Harris, as we could see Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Furkan Korkmaz and Dwight Howard all see extended run with the absence of the two stars. Of the four, Milton is my favorite whether he starts or not. Without the two stars this season, he’s posted a 30.7% usage rate and 1.11 DKP/min. He should command the lion’s share of the touches in the backcourt and his ownership should only get lower if he comes off of the bench. Howard would be my secondary option here, as he’s likely to draw the start for Embiid. He posts almost 1.2 DKP/min with them out, but with other pay-down centers like Kelly Olynyk on the slate, it’s hard for me to endorse him as the only salary-saving option at the position.
With Simmons and Embiid out, this becomes a much more approachable matchup for the Bulls, but I still only have interest in Zach LaVine. He posted a 31.1% usage rate, 23.5% assist rate, and 1.28 DKP/min in the first half of the season and should have no problem carving up this secondary defense. His ownership should also be low given the plethora of options in the $9k range on DraftKings.
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -11, total: 223
While this should operate as a pace-up spot for the Knicks, every game should be considered a pace-up spot considering the fact that they rank dead last in the NBA in pace (98.2).
With Derrick Rose out, the only players that I have (minimal) interest in for tournaments are Immanuel Quickley and Julius Randle. Quickley’s minutes are still too volatile for small-field tournaments or cash games, but he’s still posting a usage rate over 28% with Rose out, giving him upside at his $5,300 price. Taking a high-usage player like Rose out of the equation will also naturally help Randle, who ranks top-15 in the NBA in touches per game this season (81.9).
For the Bucks, they’re harder to endorse here as well given the slow, defensive matchup with the Knicks as well as the fact that Jrue Holiday is back in the rotation. With that said, Giannis Antetokounmpo is always a top option and remains one of my favorite spend-ups on Thursday. He’s averaged 28.8 points, 12 rebounds, and 5.5 assists over his last four games against the Knicks and should be in line for that production as a floor on Thursday. If not playing Giannis, you can always hedge Milwaukee exposure by playing Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -8, total: 240.5
If there was ever a matchup for Zion Williamson to continue his torrid stretch, this is the one. Over his last five games, Willamson has averaged 28.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.6 stocks per game. As you can see, the peripherals are finally there and they’ve unlocked a new ceiling for the superstar sophomore. His $9,300 price still feels a touch cheap against a porous defense, making him one of my favorite overall plays on the slate.
You can never go wrong with Brandon Ingram in a favorable matchup, but with Zion’s leaps forward, Ingram has naturally taken a back seat. I would rather opt for Lonzo Ball, who’s transitioned from a past-first point guard to a spot-up shooter, attempting at least five threes in each of his last 10 games.
For the Timberwolves, it’s really Karl-Anthony Towns or bust. This is not an easy matchup with Williamson and Steven Adams, but Towns is one of the most offensively-gifted big men in basketball, making him a viable tournament option. If you really want Timberwolves exposure outside of Towns, you can get away with Anthony Edwards for $6,700, as he sports a 32.7% usage rate this season without D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DAL -5.5, total: 221
The Mavs enter this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means we could see Kristaps Porzingis rest, as he’s been hit-or-miss on back-to-backs this season. If he ends up sitting out, we would see a lot more Maxi Kleber and James Johnson in the frontcourt while Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. would pick up some extra shots.
The matchup is a favorable one, cementing Doncic as a strong play under $11,000, but unless Porzingis is out, he is not a priority. If Porzingis ends up playing, he makes for a viable play as well against a weak Thunder frontcourt.
The Thunder side of this game is equally as unexciting as the Mavs side, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is really the only piece I have interest in. He leads the NBA in drives per game (25.1), which bodes well against a team that ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed in the restricted area. This also makes Al Horford an interesting mid-tier option at center, but the upside is severely capped with the Thunder rotation almost at full health.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -7, total: 231
I have no idea what’s going on at DraftKings, but both Kawhi Leonard ($8,900) and Paul George ($8,500) are way too cheap in a pace-up matchup that should stay close. Both are viable here given their usage and peripheral rates, but my lean is Leonard given how thin the small forward position is.
Outside of those two, it’s easy to fade the rest of the Clippers unless you want to game-log chase Patrick Beverley, who’s posted 25 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games and could be tasked with a few extra minutes opposite of Stephen Curry on Thursday.
Speaking of Curry, he makes for a perfectly fine play, I simply have interest in spending up elsewhere, especially considering the matchup. If rostering Warriors, however, he’s easily the top option. You can also get away with Draymond Green at his elevated price if you expect this game to stay close. He should remain the lead distributor on the team and could see an uptick in minutes, as his defense is going to be needed to combat Leonard and George.
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers
PHO -4.5, total: 226.5
The Blazers are typically a night-cap to target, but Thursday’s slate is a bit different, as the Suns don’t typically provide an appealing game environment in terms of DFS. You can still get away with Damian Lillard, but if spending nearly $11,000, I’d prefer a star in a better matchup like Doncic.
Enes Kanter is also in play on FanDuel, as he remains too cheap. The matchup with the Suns is not a super advantageous one, but anytime that he’s matched up with a more traditional center, I feel better about his minutes. That becomes the case on Thursday against Deandre Ayton. He saw 28 minutes in their last meeting on February 22 and posted 15 rebounds, giving him enough upside in tournaments.
For the Suns, you can get away with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton given the matchup, but figuring out which one will have a ceiling game is like pulling a needle in a haystack. I prefer to defer to Chris Paul, who’s entirely too cheap at $7,800. He should be in line for 32+ minutes against Lillard, who ranks 76th out of 85 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus this season. He should have ample opportunity for defensive peripherals and is one of the safest plays on the slate, especially in cash games, where he should come at minimal ownership.
Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -4.5, total: 228.5
The last game on the slate should be one of the more action-packed games. The issue, however, is the fact that all of the Kings are incredibly expensive on DraftKings.
Even so, it’s hard to ignore the spot De'Aaron Fox finds himself in. The Rockets are allowing the highest transition frequency in the NBA (18.4%), the most transition points per game (23.3), and the most transition possessions per game (20.8). If there’s any player who thrives in transition, it’s Fox. He’s expensive on DraftKings but worth the price.
Harrison Barnes is an intriguing option on FanDuel at $6,900, as he’s topped 40 FanDuel points in three of his last five games and should be in line to play nearly 40 minutes. Since he’s a touch pricey on DraftKings, I have more interest in Richaun Holmes as a secondary Kings piece. The Rockets rank 17th against crafty finishers and 23rd against rebounders, giving him enough upside against Justin Patton to warrant consideration.
For the Rockets, both John Wall and Victor Oladipo are equally priced on DraftKings and come into a great spot. The Kings are allowing the eighth-most transition points per game (20.7) on the season and both Wall and Oladipo are sporting transition frequency rates over 15%. Between the two, my lean is Oladipo given his volume (20+ field goal attempts in four straight games), but you can’t go wrong with either in this matchup.
Outside of the backcourt, however, this isn’t a team I have a ton of interest in even in the great matchup strictly because of other plays on the slate.
