Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The last NBA DFS slate of the workweek presents us with 10 total games and a ton of mispriced players on DraftKings.
With so many games on the slate, it’s important to narrow down which games are truly the best to target, and which are appropriate to write off. This will be apparent in the game-by-game breakdown, but Vegas totals are also included to help make those important decisions.
Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
IND -3.5, total: 219.5
After seeing this exact matchup play out Wednesday, it’s impossible to write off Domantas Sabonis for $9,200, who triple-doubled. He remains top-three in the NBA in touches per game but is not priced as such, making him a phenomenal play at what should be lower ownership.
Malcolm Brogdon remains viable as well, as he and Sabonis correlate well enough where a ceiling game from one doesn’t negate production from another. His price on FanDuel ($8,300) makes him one of the more appealing mid-range point guards on the slate. Jeremy Lamb should also be considered if he’s deemed a starter again. While he only saw 20 minutes on Wednesday, he’ll continue to see an uptick in volume until T.J. Warren comes back, making him a fine value play. Myles Turner is also in an intriguing bounce-back spot, as his $7,800 price on FanDuel still doesn’t reflect his production this season aside from his dud last time out.
There are only two players I have my eyes on for Charlotte Friday and they’re both price plays. The first is Gordon Hayward. I don’t know what he did to the DraftKings pricing guys, but $7,000 is insulting. He’s averaged over 5.5x that price this season in terms of production and remains the number one option in this offense. The second is Cody Zeller. After being eased into action following his absence, he saw over 29 minutes in his last game (against the same Pacers) and posted 10 points and 14 rebounds. At only $4,000, it’s hard to find production like that, making him a viable value play for the second consecutive slate.
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards
ATL -4.5, total: 231.5
Right off of the bat, it’s easy to assume this game will (and should) garner the most attention on the slate, given the 231.5 consensus total and the lack of defense that these teams play.
Trae Young ($9,100) comes in as a massive misprice on DraftKings, having averaged 57.4 DK points per game over his last four contests. It also helps that the Wizards rank 27th against primary ball handlers, per advanced DvP, solidifying Young as one of the top plays on the slate.
Outside of Young, De'Andre Hunter and John Collins are my two favorite options with their prices baked into the equation. Hunter has averaged 21.8 raw points per game over his last four games, while Collins’ price has yet to catch up to his adjustments at the power forward position. Clint Capela is definitely viable on both sites, but given the number of centers that I like, I don’t know if I’ll personally get there. This may be a popular train of thought, however, making him an elite tournament play.
Russell Westbrook is also cheap ($9,000) and should be viable as long as he remains at or above that 28-minute range, given the fact that his usage rate throughout the season resembled more of the Westbrook from Oklahoma City, not Houston. Bradley Beal is viable regardless of the status of Westbrook, as he leads the entire NBA in usage rate and should come in at a lower price because Westbrook is active.
Deni Avdija is out, which could lead to some more minutes for Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura. Without Thomas Bryant, this could lead to a lot more Hachimura for only $4,900 on DraftKings, making him a worthwhile value option even if we only expect 25-26 minutes.
Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
MIL -7, total: 228.5
Until Giannis Antetokounmpo rises above the $11,000 price tag, he’s going to continue to be an easy play. While there’s always the potential for him to play three quarters due to a blowout, he’s proven the ability to get there in roughly 27-28 minutes. If you chose to forego Giannis, it would make sense to hedge a lineup with Khris Middleton for $8,400, who’s been arguably the most productive and consistent Bucks player this season.
There’s a strong chance that Lonzo Ball sits, which could lead to more production for Nickeil Alexander-Walker for only $4,200, as he sees a 24.2% usage rate and 18.5% assist rate with Ball out. If this becomes the case, expect Alexander-Walker to become a very popular value play.
Outside of Alexander-Walker, both Brandon Ingram ($8,000) and Zion Williamson ($7,600) feel a tad cheap. Williamson’s peripherals have left a lot to be desired, as his rebounding chances per game are less than the likes of Josh Hart on the season. That leads me to prefer Ingram for a touch more, as his usage rate and peripheral rates are incrementally higher and a bit more stable.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
CLE -1, total: 207.5
A 10-game slate will present a few games that fail to garner interest and as of now, this is the one, given the absurdly low total.
With that said, Andre Drummond has been absolutely smashing over the last four games since the Jarrett Allen trade. While he’s failed to top 30 minutes in that span, 18.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.6 stocks in only 25.2 minutes per game. His $8,600 price seems to bake in the volatility with his playing time, making him an elite tournament play.
Both Darius Garland ($5,000) and Collin Sexton ($6,700) are far too cheap on DraftKings and should also garner some attention on a 10-game slate, especially considering the fact that Sexton is a virtual lock for 20 raw points night in and night out.
The Knicks are the team in this game that generate virtually zero interest for me. You can get away with RJ Barrett and Julius Randle at their prices given their role in the offense, but on a 10-game slate, there’s not a need to go here.
Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -5.5, total: 229
Speaking of underpriced, the Raptors players are quite literally all underpriced. Chris Boucher has seen his price drop to $6,100 after a heap of duds, but against the worst defense in the league (in terms of defensive efficiency), Boucher has a ton of upside in tournaments.
Getting (at least) one of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet or Pascal Siakam is going to be imperative to me on this slate given the matchup, as none of them are more expensive than $7,500. All three average at least 1.04 DK points per minute and should see 35-plus minutes, locking them into a productive game against a team that struggles in quite literally every facet defensively. Of the three, my priority would be Siakam, then Lowry, and then VanVleet.
If OG Anunoby sits out again, we should see Norman Powell draw another start. In his seven games as a starter this season, he’s averaged 20.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.
If you want to find a runback option from the Kings, Marvin Bagley and De'Aaron Fox are likely your best bets (albeit at drastically different prices). Bagley has finally looked comfortable on the floor, posting a 22.9% usage rate and 1.08 FPPM over the last two weeks. Fox is expensive, but over that same span, has posted a 30.4% usage rate, 35.7% assist rate, and 1.29 FPPM. You can also look to Buddy Hield as a run-back option and while volatile, he flashed his upside last game and remains reasonable at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PHI -7.5, total: 225.5
The status of Joel Embiid in this game is pivotal to watch, as he would easily become one of the best overall plays on the slate at his price in this matchup. Given the fact that he’s questionable, however, the rest of the Sixers find themselves drastically underpriced, especially on DraftKings.
Tobias Harris ($6,800) sees a 27% usage rate and over 1.2 DK points per minute without Embiid, while Ben Simmons ($7,700) sees a 38% assist rate, 16.8% rebounding rate, and posts 1.11 FPPM in that scenario over the last two weeks. It also helps that the Wolves are allowing the second-most transition points per game, catering to Simmons’ wheelhouse.
While Tony Bradley has been seeing more involvement lately, Dwight Howard is still too cheap in the scenario that Embiid sits, as he’s produced 1.19 DK points per minute and a 25.6% rebounding rate with Embiid out over that same span mentioned above.
Philadelphia isn’t a team I actively try to target, but if you’re game-stacking this game, my preferred options would be Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards (if D'Angelo Russell is out). With Russell and Towns out, Beasley holds a 27.8% usage rate and posts 1.11 FPPM. He’s been rather under-owned on the last two slates, providing optimism that we could see the same on Friday. Edwards would be my choice if looking to save salary, as he’s posted a 30.2% usage rate without Russell and Towns this season and finally had a breakout game in 30 minutes Wednesday against the Warriors.
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
BKN -8.5, total: 229
We finally saw the ceiling of the Brooklyn stars Wednesday, as they combined for 89 points. While their production will obviously siphon off of each other, both Kevin Durant ($9,900) and Kyrie Irving ($8,700) feel far too cheap. The issue, however, is that Trae Young is sitting only $400 more than Irving on DraftKings. While he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate, Irving could be an elite pivot in tournaments that should garner little-to-no ownership.
As for the Thunder, with Al Horford back, it’s hard to endorse the frontcourt after relying on Isaiah Roby for value for the better part of the last two weeks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is never not in play, especially against a team that has struggled mightily around the rim. He should be able to slash and get whatever he wants, making him a fine tournament target, there are simply other players around his price range that I prefer more.
If you need value, Luguentz Dort is a fine option at $4,400 because of his minutes stability (30-plus) and his three-point potential.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic
ORL -2, total: 212.5
Once again, we’re presented with a Clippers game sans Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley. The difference, however, is the fact that it’s a 10-game slate and we aren’t necessarily forced into these plays like we were on a three and a four-game slate. This will lead me to fade this team for the most part. With that said, if pressing for Clippers exposure, Reggie Jackson still hasn’t been priced up appropriately on FanDuel, as he’s played massive minutes and produces a FanDuel point per minute with those three out.
Terance Mann is also a fine play given his peripheral upside, especially if you’re in the camp that Lou Williams sees less minutes on the second half of a back-to-back.
On Orlando, you really only need to focus on Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. Gordon should come in low owned after a massive dud at high ownership, making him an elite GPP play given his rise in assist rate sans Markelle Fultz.
Vucevic could also come in lower owned than he has lately, but I do prefer other centers around his price range (specifically Embiid if active). Fournier is probably my favorite Magic play from a point-per-dollar standpoint. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a 28.4% usage rate and a gaudy 27.3% assist rate en route to 1.22 DK points per minute. At $6,400, he’s squarely in play as an uber-safe option with upside.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
DEN -4.5, total: 222.5
Dejounte Murray priced at $6,100 is yet another misprice, especially considering the fact that he’s shown his triple-double upside on multiple occasions this season. With Derrick White out, he’s locked into 30-plus minutes in an exploitable matchup not only with Jamal Murray, but an entire Denver defensive unit who struggles against slashing guards at the rim.
DeMar DeRozan also feels too cheap here as he leads the team in assist rate (29.3%) while holding a 23.9% usage rate and 1.17 DK points per minute. Being the slasher that he is, he, like Murray, should be able to exploit the weaknesses in this Denver defense around the rim.
Nikola Jokic is yet another completely mispriced player at only $10,100 and may not carry the ownership that he should at this price. He’s top two in the NBA in touches per game and should be able to have his way with the Spurs, like he does against just about every team in the league.
Outside of him, however, it’s hard to buy into this Nuggets team. Jamal Murray is priced attractively at $6,900, but given the mid-tier plays previously discussed, it’s easy to pivot away from his volatility. The same can be said about Michael Porter.
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
UTA -4.5, total: 220.5
Rudy Gobert attempted 20 shots last game against the Mavericks and while Donovan Mitchell was out, this can be considered a direct product of how poor Dallas’ defense is around the rim. At $7,500 after two consecutive ceiling games, he makes for an easy play in two-center builds. Whether or not Mitchell plays, Gobert remains a phenomenal play and one that I want to prioritize.
If Mitchell sits, we should continue to see a ton of usage funnel to Jordan Clarkson, who saw a 33.5% usage rate and 1.436 FPPM without him last game. His price has risen on DraftKings, but at $5,800 on FanDuel, he makes for an easy SG2 play. If Mitchell plays, however, that’ll significantly knock the stock of Clarkson relative to his price. Mitchell’s potential absence would also lead to Joe Ingles being an elite value, posting a 34.8% assist rate and 1.35 FPPM last game.
Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis don’t need analysis to convince you to play them; they just don’t come in as priority plays on the Friday slate given the abundance of options around their respective prices. With that said, their ownership should remain low, making them elite tournament plays, while Luka remains viable in cash games given his floor/ceiling combination.
