Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Saturday presents us with a unique NBA slate for DFS, as only four of the total 14 teams in action are coming off of rest, whereas the other 10 teams are coming into the slate on the second leg of a back-to-back. This obviously could impact rotations, so these hypothetical scenarios will be addressed game by game.
At the time of writing, no Vegas lines were posted, so they are not included in the Saturday breakdown.
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Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
Pace: MIA (13th), BKN (5th)
Defensive rating: MIA (22nd), BKN (21st)
After sitting out Friday, it would make sense to see Kevin Durant suit up for Saturday’s game. In that case, we can look back to the debut of the big three, where Durant held a 28.1% usage rate, compared to 31.8% for Kyrie Irving and 18.3% for James Harden. All three of them also averaged over a fantasy point per minute, with Durant leading that category at 1.54 FPPM. It would make sense for all of these to normalize and end up closer together (especially Harden). All three of these studs are viable against the Heat, but not necessarily priority plays unless one or more than one of them are out.
On the Heat side of the ball, the viability of the backcourt will continue to hang on the status of Tyler Herro. If he remains out, both Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn become viable mid-tier plays, with Nunn catering more to GPPs. This would also be a massive benefit for Bam Adebayo, who’s averaged 1.44 DK points per minute this season without Herro and Jimmy Butler. Against a Nets team that lost their rim protection in the Harden trade, he should have his way early and often around the basket against a team that just allowed 134 points in the paint over their last two games, the most in a two-game span over the last 25 seasons.
With Herro out, we could continue to see Gabe Vincent in the starting lineup as well, who’s posted a respectable 25.9% usage rate without Butler and Herro this season. At near minimum price, there are certainly worse value plays on the slate.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons
Pace: PHI (4th), DET (25th)
Defensive rating: PHI (5th), DET (25th)
Both these teams are coming off Friday games, so we could certainly see a few players rest here. For the Pistons, the two most likely to rest are Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose. With Killian Hayes out for the year, though, there may be a higher likelihood that Rose suits up, given the lack of point guard depth for the Pistons. In the case that he sits, however, Delon Wright would quickly become an elite value play as one of the only options at point guard.
If Griffin ends up sitting, it would open up more playing time for Josh Jackson, Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey. Grant would be the obvious top choice here, but Jackson quietly holds a 24.1% usage rate in this scenario while Bey averages 0.82 FPPM, a more than serviceable number at his price. If Griffin sits and Rose plays, Rose would become one of the best point-per-dollar options, averaging 1.25 FPPM and a 31.1% usage rate without Griffin this season.
For the Sixers, it’s still a possibility Joel Embiid could sit on the second leg of a back-to-back. We’ve seen this multiple times this season, as both Ben Simmons (+7.8% assist rate) and Tobias Harris (+3.3% usage rate, +9.2% assist rate) see production bumps, while Shake Milton (+5% usage rate) sees the team-high boost in usage. The direct replacement for Embiid in these scenarios has been Dwight Howard, who’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute with a 24% rebounding rate. All four would be viable if Embiid sits, with my personal order of preference being Howard, Harris, Simmons, Milton. If Embiid is in, however, he makes for one of the best center plays on the slate against a Pistons defense that profiles terribly against his player traits, as shown below from our advanced DvP:
New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Pace: NOP (26th), MIN (7th)
Defensive rating: NOP (24th), MIN (26th)
A pace-up spot against a bottom-five defense in the league? Yes, please. This matchup caters right to the strengths of both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, who stand atop the Pelicans in terms of usage rate and per-minute production. Now that Ingram’s price has come back down to $8,100 on DraftKings, there’s a legitimate decision to make between him and Williamson. Both are viable, but Ingram presents the safer floor/ceiling combination, while Williamson is better suited for tournaments with his peripheral production lagging as of late.
This is also an interesting spot to target an underpriced Lonzo Ball ($5,700 on DraftKings), as he should thrive in the pace-up environment against a team that ranks 27th in the NBA against primary ball handlers. At what should be low ownership, he’s a great pivot option in tournaments. Eric Bledsoe can be approached with the same mentality, though he’s a much more volatile player and his ceiling isn’t nearly as high.
Minnesota isn’t a team to target unless you’re looking for a runback in a game stack, especially against a slow-paced Pelicans team. D'Angelo Russell continues to be the beaming light (barely) in an anemic offense, averaging over 21 points per game and posting a 31.2% usage rate with Karl-Anthony Towns out. The return of Ricky Rubio will siphon some touches, but not enough to warrant a complete fade. Malik Beasley is the only other Timberwolves player I would consider, especially on FanDuel at his mid-$6k range price on a site that forces you to roster two small forwards.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls
Pace: LAL (17th), CHI (2nd)
Defensive rating: LAL (1st), CHI (28th)
If there’s one game on the slate that has an uber-high chance of getting out of hand, it’s the one between the No. 1 defense and the No. 28 defense.
Because of how lopsided the matchup is, plus the fact that Chicago is on the second-leg of a back-to-back, I really don’t have any interest in the Bulls players. A case can be made for Lauri Markkanen and Daniel Gafford, who could see extended playing time and usage if Wendell Carter sits out again, but outside of them, I have no interest, even in their offensive catalyst Zach LaVine outside of large-field tournaments, only because he posted 38 points in a back-and-forth affair in their last meeting.
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The Lakers side presents much of the same. If a game gets out of hand, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be the first two players to get subbed out of the game. While both are underpriced, this is a risk that isn’t necessary to take on a seven-game slate in cash games. That said, the last game between these two teams came down to the wire, so running one of either LeBron James, who’s fresh off of his first 30-point game of the season, or Anthony Davis may make sense in a tournament if you expect this game to script the same way again.
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
Pace: HOU (9th), DAL (22nd)
Defensive rating: HOU (14th), DAL (6th)
The Rockets head into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after pulling off a win without star big Christian Wood, who remains “very doubtful” for Saturday, with John Wall out as well. This makes it easy to run it back with DeMarcus Cousins, whose price only rose to $5,100. Not that you need analysis when he’s this cheap, but the Mavs have allowed the third-highest field goal percentage within nine feet of the basket this season.
This also makes Victor Oladipo, Jae'Sean Tate and Eric Gordon viable pieces as well. While Oladipo’s efficiency has been frustrating since his debut as a Rocket, his 38.9% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM clip give him more than enough upside at his price. Both Tate and Gordon should operate as viable value fillers, as Gordon should continue to provide instant offense (33.4% usage rate without Wood, Wall and Harden), while Tate provides a heap of peripheral upside while getting minutes at just about every position.
With so many viable options on the Rockets’ side of the ball, it makes sense to run this back with one, or both of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Even with Porzingis in the fold over the last week, Doncic has held a 30.4% usage rate, 51% assist rate and 1.56 FPPM. Porzingis is on his heels, posting a 26.3% usage rate and 1.25 FPPM over the last week. As long as this team remains short-handed, these two will get every opportunity to produce that they want.
Jalen Brunson remains viable if starting strictly given how cheap he is, but he’s only averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute over the last week, a predictable number when sharing the court with Doncic and Porzingis.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
Pace: DEN (24th), PHO (28th)
Defensive rating: DEN (23rd), PHO (10th)
Following the unplanned theme of this article, these are another two teams coming off a Friday game.
The Suns are not typically a team I choose to attack in DFS, but Nikola Jokic is immune to these types of rules. Michael Porter’s return should take away a handful of touches from the league-leader, but he’s still averaging 1.65 DK points per minute this season with an absurd 43.1% assist rate. While not a priority spend, he’s a phenomenal spend-up if you want to differentiate your lineup.
Outside of Jokic, I have a hard time trusting this team against the Phoenix defense. Jamal Murray has shown much more volatility than he did in the bubble, averaging under a fantasy point per minute, plus draws Chris Paul defense. He’s viable if stacking with Jokic, but he’s not at all a safe cash game play on his own.
On the flip side, Phoenix is not a team that’s been targeted a lot this season, but that changes a bit against Denver’s putrid defense. All three of Deandre Ayton ($7,700), Devin Booker ($7,500) and Chris Paul ($7,100) are cheap enough to warrant consideration in cash games. Cam Johnson is the other Phoenix player to target, as he recently entered the starting lineup and has been stealing some minutes from Jae Crowder. At $4,400, all you need is 22-25 minutes from Johnson, who contributes in just about every statistical category. With Dario Saric out as well, this seems like a surpassable number.
Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz
Pace: GS (3rd), UTA (23rd)
Defensive rating: GS (16th), UTA (7th)
The Jazz are a stout defensive unit, but not necessarily at the caliber they used to be. That makes this an enticing spot to target a lower-owned Stephen Curry at under $10,000, as the Jazz rank in the middle-third of the league against scorers (13th) and crafty finishers (18th). Curry has also logged at least 24 points in seven of his last eight games against the Jazz, while also topping 30 in two of his last three.
Kelly Oubre remains cheap and has seen at least 30 minutes in four straight games after Steve Kerr mentioned getting him more run with the second unit and his production has followed suit, topping 30 FanDuel points in two of his last three. He makes for a great value option at a thin small forward position.
Speaking of cheap, James Wiseman has yet to crack $5,000 on FanDuel, even after posting at least 29 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. There’s certainly risk for foul trouble against Rudy Gobert, but he’s cheap enough to consider in tournaments given the upside that he’s been flashing.
The pace-up nature of this game provides a massive fantasy boost to the Jazz side, making Donovan Mitchell one of my favorite higher-mid-tier plays on the slate. His 32.1% usage rate leads the team while his 24.7% assist rate trails only Mike Conley. Speaking of Conley, his $6,600 price tag on DraftKings is finally at a point worth considering, especially after he rounded back into form in 31 minutes last game, posting 20 points, six assists and a trio of steals.
Rudy Gobert continues to be too cheap and there isn’t much analysis needed for him at his price. He’s $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel and has posted at least 10 rebounds in 10 straight games, falling below 35 fantasy points only once in his last five games.
Joe Ingles has yet to play 20 minutes since his return, but he’s topped 24 FD points in both games and still sits at only $4,500. That’s criminally cheap given the matchup. His teammate, Bojan Bogdanovic, is only $600 more at the same position if you desire a bit more security in terms of playing time.
