Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With the Super Bowl behind us, all eyes in the sports world should (hopefully) turn their attention to the NBA, which presents us with an eight-game NBA DFS slate on Monday.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets
HOU -3, 223 total
Christian Wood remains out and DeMarcus Cousins remains too cheap. Without Wood, he’s averaging just under 30 minutes per game as a starter this season with a 24.8% usage rate, 21.4% assist rate, 21.0% rebounding rate and averages 1.35 DKP/min this season. Bake in the fact that Charlotte is bottom-10 in the league against six out of his seven player traits and you have yourself the top point-per-dollar center of the slate.
Looking in the backcourt, John Wall makes the most sense, especially cheaper than Victor Oladipo, considering his 34.9% usage rate without Wood this season. Eric Gordon also remains viable and his usage rate (27.1%) without Wood is less than one percent behind Oladipo’s but comes at a massive discount.
For Charlotte, the viability of this backcourt hinges on the availability of Devonte' Graham, as LaMelo Ball’s price tag is now steep enough where I’d be scared off with a healthy backcourt because we have yet to see how their new rotation will shake out with all three healthy. If Graham is out, however, Ball becomes a fine tournament option. My preference, however, would fall to Terry Rozier at a significant discount. While he doesn’t have the peripheral upside that Ball comes with, he’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute without Graham this season and would be a lock for 32+ minutes, making him a massive bargain.
No matter the status of Graham, however, my favorite Hornets option is Gordon Hayward, who’s averaged 22.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5 assists over his last four games. His price (particularly on FanDuel) is far from indicative of this production, making him a very strong play at the small forward spot.
Cody Zeller has been playing excellent basketball as of late, but the return of P.J. Washington has hampered his minutes upside, seeing only 41 total minutes over his last two games. With the price increase and this factored in, he’s an easy fade on this slate.
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -2.5, 237 total
While quite possibly a terrible game to watch from the standpoint of a casual NBA fan, this game has fireworks potential from a DFS perspective.
Being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Wizards, it would make sense to see Russell Westbrook rest. The caveat, however, is the fact that Scott Brooks said that it’s possible he plays, which would mark the first time this season he plays the second leg of a back-to-back. If he does, however, he becomes arguably the best point-per-dollar play on the slate at $8,600. If he sits, it’s an easy move to a $9,000 Bradley Beal, who holds the highest usage rate in the entire NBA this season and only sees that number climb with Westbrook out.
If Westbrook sits, it would also be hard to not love one of either Ish Smith or Raul Neto, with the latter providing a bit of a price discount. Of the two, my preference would lie with whoever starts and if this season has been any indication, Neto seems like the likely bet. The absence of Westbrook would also open up more shots and rebounding opportunities for Deni Avdija, who’s cheap enough to use as a lineup filler.
The Bulls side has some intriguing mini-stack/run-back options, with Zach LaVine being the obvious one. LaVine has been scorching as of late, averaging 32.5 points, six assists and 5.5 rebounds over his last two games. His price, however, is harder to stomach knowing that both Westbrook and Beal are within a few hundred dollars.
Outside of Westbrook, both Denzel Valentine and Patrick Williams are cheap enough to go back to, especially with Lauri Markkanen already ruled out. Both started last game and outperformed their sub-$5k salaries, making them great value pieces on a slate that doesn’t have many in general.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies
TOR -2, 223 total
This is one of the games on the slate that I may struggle to have a piece of, as its overall DFS prospects are not wildly high. Memphis does, however, play at a faster pace with Ja Morant back in the lineup, which bodes well for the Raptors big three in Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam. Of the three, Lowry is my favorite option considering the discount off of VanVleet and the individual matchup with Morant heightening the ceiling for peripheral production.
Chris Boucher remains cheap enough to roster in tournaments, but a lot of my interest in Boucher is dependent on whether or not Jonas Valanciunas starts. He came off of the bench in his first game back and if that were the case again, it would be a massive hit to the value of Boucher, who doesn’t have nearly enough size to combat or compete with Valanciunas down low. If he starts, however, Boucher would be one of my favorite tournament options of the slate. If, in the off-chance, Boucher starts, he would be one of the top overall options on the slate.
If Aron Baynes continues to start, he carries some value at under $4,000 for those of you wishing to punt center. His minutes should shoot back up a bit given the matchup, and he’s shown the ability to produce over a fantasy point per minute, making him a viable value play if punting the position.
Memphis is a rather cut-and-dry team for me on this slate, even with De'Anthony Melton out. Ja Morant’s price is appealing enough to consider in tournaments, but his minutes have been capped as a result of a handful of blowouts over the last four to five games. That could very well be a risk on Monday, as well, which is why I’m most comfortable reserving him for GPPs.
Outside of him, however, there isn’t anyone on the Grizzlies who I feel comfortable rostering, especially if Jonas Valanciunas continues to be eased back into the rotation at his price.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -9, 225.5 total
Minnesota continues to deploy one of the worst defensive units in basketball, making both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis phenomenal targets on this slate. The question is whether or not you want to pay all the way up for Luka or not. If your answer is no, then it makes sense to get your exposure to the Mavericks via Porzingis, who still feels too cheap under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Out of the ancillary pieces of the Mavericks, Dorian Finney-Smith is one of the best options, especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint. He should be locked into 30+ minutes in an elite matchup and may get another incremental boost if James Johnson were to sit out.
For the Timberwolves, my only interest here will come if D'Angelo Russell is ruled out. In that case, both Malik Beasley (27.6% usage rate, 1.06 DKP/min without Russell) and Anthony Edwards (29.5% usage rate without Russell) become phenomenal mid-tier targets. Edwards, however, is a strong play on FanDuel where he’s listed as a shooting guard, compared to DraftKings who has him listed as a power forward.
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
GSW +1.5, 233.5 total
At the rate he’s playing, Stephen Curry is putting together a legitimate case for MVP if the Warriors can sneak into a top-five seed in the West. On this slate, he’s likely to go overlooked. That, to me, is a mistake, as the Spurs are running at a faster pace with a worse defense than we’ve become accustomed to over the last handful of seasons. They also rank bottom-eight in the league against all five of Curry’s traits per aDvP (dimer, primary ball-handler, scorer, crafty finisher, and superstar).
If I'm not getting my Warriors exposure through Curry, it’s going to be through Draymond Green, especially if Eric Paschall is ruled out again. With Paschall, James Wiseman, and Kevon Looney out this season, Green has posted a 35% assist rate and 10.8% rebounding rate while averaging 1.08 DKP/min. For that production, he’s still too cheap.
The potential absence of Paschall would also continue to give more minutes to Juan Toscano-Anderson, who would be a viable play at $4,500 considering how many minutes he’s played recently.
On the Spurs side, it’s hard to not love DeMar DeRozan at $7,700. With both LaMarcus Aldridge and Lonnie Walker out this season, he’s posted a 28.5% usage rate, 36.9% assist rate and 1.34 DKP/min. Against one of the fastest-paced teams in basketball, he has incredibly high ceiling potential.
Outside of DeRozan, the only other two Spurs who I have interest in are Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Murray, contrary to what we saw last season, has been getting 30+ minutes consistently with White back in the lineup. It’s not often that you get a triple-double threat for under $7,000 on DraftKings, either. White should be a beneficiary of Walker’s absence and will continue to play a ton at the off-guard position. With Walker and Aldridge out, White has posted a 21.9% usage rate and 25.8% assist rate for an incredibly reasonable price tag.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -7, 213.5 total
This is the other game that I have virtually no interest in from a DFS perspective. Both of these teams rank in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency while operating as two of the bottom-five teams in pace of play. It’s safe to say that this isn’t a conducive game environment for fantasy production.
The one exception here is Andre Drummond. While minutes were the original obstacle to overcome after the Cavs traded for Jarrett Allen, Drummond has now seen 30 or more minutes in three of his last four games. On top of that, he has a 32% usage rate on the season, which is an absolute diamond in the rough when you consider the nature of big men in today’s NBA, while averaging 1.50 DKP/minute, making him an elite play at only $8,200, regardless of matchup.
For the Suns, there’s merit to playing both Devin Booker ($7,400) and Deandre Ayton ($6,900) simply because they’re far too cheap when you factor in their ceilings. The issue, however, is the frequency that they’re hitting their ceilings this season is exponentially lower than it was last season.
Cam Johnson and Frank Kaminsky are both viable value options with Jae Crowder out once again. Kaminsky has been drawing the starts at power forward and while not going out and logging starters minutes, he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration at his price tag.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets
MIL -4, 234 total
With the Anthony Davis news and so many viable mid-tier targets on this slate, there’s a very strong chance that both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic go overlooked here. While I will never argue against playing Jokic, regardless of opponent, my preference in this game is Antetokounmpo. Denver has gotten brutalized at the rim this season, obviously where Antetokounmpo flourishes, and given the fact that this game should stay close, we could see him approach 36-38 minutes. For reference, Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.4 stocks per-36 minutes this season.
I feel like a broken record here, but if you aren’t getting exposure to Giannis, it would make sense to target Khris Middleton, especially at his suppressed price. He’s been rather underwhelming as of late, but a competitive game environment is all he needs to get back to the 40+ DK point threshold.
For the Nuggets, the status of Jamal Murray will have a ton of implications on this team. Last game with him out, we saw them start Monte Morris, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap and Jokic. Morris would immediately become a priority value play if Murray is out, as he can safely be projected for 33+ minutes at a cheap tag.
This would also be a massive boost to Jokic, who saw over 120 touches last game without him. That’s also almost 20 more touches than he averages on the season, a category in which he leads the NBA. Both Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. would receive incremental bumps as well, with Barton being a safer cash option while Porter possesses the higher ceiling for GPPs.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -10, 216 total
With early news on Monday that Anthony Davis is expected to sit out as he nurses a leg issue, we should see heightened ownership on both LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma across the industry. On the season with Davis out, LeBron leads the team with a 34.3% usage rate, 42.6% assist rate and averages 1.47 DKP/min, vaulting him to the top of the spend-up list. Whether or not you play LeBron shouldn’t affect your view on Kuzma, who has a 20.9% usage rate and averaged 0.95 DKP/min with Davis out. With 30+ minutes almost a lock, he’s arguably the best value options on the slate.
You can get away with targeting Montrezl Harrell (+1.2% bump in usage without Davis) or another value option like Talen Horton-Tucker (+1.5% bump in usage, +2.0% bump in assist rate without Davis), but it feels unnecessary to go beyond the top two options on this team with a full slate on deck.
The absence of Davis should also help the Thunder in this matchup in terms of both keeping the game close and producing around the rim. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a perfectly viable play at $8,100, as he checks off just about every box we want aside from the matchup. While I personally will probably not get to him on this slate, I have no qualms if you want to lock him in.
Outside of SGA, both Darius Bazley and Al Horford should receive a meaningful boost without Davis, especially considering the fact that both Isaiah Roby and Mike Muscala have been ruled out. Of the two, Horford remains the safer option and has demonstrated a massive ceiling, making him a viable center play for $6,300 on DraftKings.
