NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 2

Tuesday offers a six-game DFS slate in the NBA that honestly isn’t anywhere close to my favorite of the season, but it is intriguing, especially when you have the Nets at full strength.

Per usual, make sure you are monitoring news throughout the day as any slate can drastically change in a heartbeat.

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Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic

TOR -6, total: 215

After losing Jonathan Isaac last year, the Magic have watched Markelle Fultz suffer a season-ending torn ACL, and now Aaron Gordon is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a severe ankle sprain. This is a massive loss, as Gordon had become the point forward for this team with Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams out of the lineup. Since Fultz suffered his injury, Gordon’s touches per game, assist points created per game and assist rate all climbed substantially. However, Gordon is now out, which opens up the door for the rest of this Orlando team to do more.

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way. Even if the Magic were at full strength and every player was available, Nikola Vucevic’s $8,200 price tag on DraftKings would still be entirely too cheap. But you add the fact that Gordon is out, and all bets are off. With Gordon and Fultz off the floor this season, Vucevic is sporting a 32.6% usage rate and 34% rebounding rate, while averaging a strong 1.34 fantasy points per minute. This matchup with the Raptors isn’t elite or anything but it isn’t one that you have to necessarily fear. Vucevic just scored nearly 46 fantasy points against this team over the weekend, while Toronto is also coughing up the third-highest field goal percentage in basketball to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll on the season (56.5%). That bodes extremely well for Vucevic, who is second in the NBA in points per game as the roll man (6.0) and I think we see Orlando run an insane amount of pick and roll with Vucevic and rookie Cole Anthony in this game. Anthony is the second-best option from Orlando Tuesday, as he’s really their only true ball-handler that they have left. With Fultz and Gordon off the floor, Anthony’s usage rate jumps up to a solid 25.2%, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. The ball has also been in his hands quite a bit so far during his rookie season, as Anthony is averaging 5.83 seconds per touch, which is a top-five number in the league among qualified players. At $5,500 on DraftKings, Anthony is one of my favorite plays on the board and should be in line for arguably the most touches he’s seen all year long.

Meanwhile, Gary Clark likely enters the starting lineup with Gordon out, which could make him a dull yet viable value option. Clark’s usage rate with Fultz and Gordon on the bench is under 9%, as he literally just stands in the corner and spots up for three. However, the Raptors do actually allow the fifth-most spot-up points per game on the season (33.4). If Clark can hit some threes and walk into some rebounds in 25-27 minutes, he should please you at his price tag.

For the Raptors, no one really stands out as a core play. Pascal Siakam is perfectly fine at $7,700 on DraftKings and has scored at least 30 real points in each of his last two games. He always plays huge minutes in close games but will continue to do more as long as OG Anunoby and Norman Powell are sidelined. If both players are ruled out once again, you could look to Terence Davis or even Yuta Watanabe, who has been productive off the bench over the last two games. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are both in that low $7,000 price range where they will rarely kill you, though apparently VanVleet didn’t get the memo in his last game, as he finished with fewer than 10 fantasy points.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets

LAC -2, total: 242.5

This game is pretty simple because both of these teams are pretty top-heavy for fantasy.

Of course, we know Brooklyn relies on their three stars, and all three of them will be available here. James Harden missed Sunday’s game against the Wizards but is no longer on the injury report. That makes Brooklyn a bit tougher to attack, though the price tags on Kyrie Irving ($8,900) and Kevin Durant ($10,100) are much more appealing than Harden’s ($10,900). The Clippers are obviously a very good defense and if choosing between the two, I prefer Irving, who won’t have to see coverage from Patrick Beverley, while Durant will have to work for his buckets against Kawhi Leonard. Yes, Durant is a walking bucket and is as unguardable as anyone in the history of the league, but give me Kyrie at under $9,000.

For the Clippers, it is essentially the same story. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are fantastic options against a Nets defense that, if the season ended today, would have the worst defensive rating in the history of the NBA. Leonard and George are both hovering around a 29% usage rate mark on the season, while averaging 1.34 and 1.28 fantasy points per minute, respectively. The Nets don’t have the players to guard this duo, but especially George if you assume Durant tries to slow down Leonard. Brooklyn is also coughing up the eighth-most points per game off isolation this season (6.7), while Leonard is averaging 3.9 isolation points per game this year, good for the sixth-most in basketball. He is also sporting a 19.1% frequency rate off the play type, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards

WAS -2, total: 240.5

Feel free to target a handful of players from this contest, as it features a massive total and two defenses that are struggling this season.

Portland is coming off the front end of a back-to-back but because Milwaukee ran them out of the gym, the starters all played limited minutes, which helps for this matchup. Per usual, the Blazers start with Damian Lillard, who over his last seven games, is averaging over 91 touches and 9.7 minutes of possession per game, while also averaging 6.40 seconds per touch. This is as good of a matchup as you can find, as the Wizards are surrendering the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (22.3), while Lillard is averaging 15.1 points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick and roll, the most in basketball. The Wizards are also 22nd in the league against superstars, which Lillard certainly profiles as. I also really like Enes Kanter, who double-doubled in limited minutes on Monday night and his price has now dipped back below $7,000. He is still averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute while posting an awesome 46% rebounding rate with Jusuf Nurkic off the floor this season. Washington, meanwhile, is coughing up a 54.3% field goal percentage to the post, good for the fifth-highest mark in basketball.

Lillard and Kanter are the clear core plays on this team but there are some secondary pieces here. Anfernee Simons has logged at least 27 minutes in each of his last four games, while sporting a solid 23.5% usage rate with both CJ McCollum and Nurkic off the floor this season. He is also averaging close to a fantasy point per minute in the split and is still very affordable in a great matchup at $4,300. Despite Gary Trent starting and playing huge minutes right now, I actually would rather save some salary and play Simons than pay up to $6,000 for Trent.

For the Wizards, both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are stellar plays, especially since both players are a bit underpriced. Westbrook appears to be off his minutes limit, as he logged 35 minutes and went for 73.5 fantasy points the other night. Assuming he is playing his usual allotment of minutes, $9,100 on DraftKings is too cheap for Westbrook, who is averaging nearly 14 rebounding chances per game this year, while converting almost 69% of those opportunities. Washington’s frontcourt has been essentially letting Russ grab boards, while they continue to be without Thomas Bryant. Portland also ranks 24th against dimers and 27th against primary ball handlers on the season, making this a great spot for Westbrook. Likewise, Beal is too cheap on DraftKings, as he comes in under $10,000. I think people think you can’t pay this price tag for Beal when Westbrook is active, but this is still a player that is averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Russ on the floor this season, while posting a healthy 34% usage rate.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers

IND -5, total: 222.5

Keep an eye on Ja Morant here, as he left Monday night’s game for a bit with an injury. He did return but there is an outside shot that he misses this game. If that is the case, Tyus Jones likely enters the starting lineup and in eight starts this season, Jones is averaging right around 10 points per game to go along with 6.9 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.9 steals per contest. He also has a 28% assist rate with both Morant and Jonas Valanciunas off the floor, while averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute. De'Anthony Melton would also get a boost, who has now scored 35 and 40 fantasy points over the last two games. The absence of Grayson Allen has helped Melton go from a DNP to a key cog in this Memphis offense. Meanwhile, Xavier Tillman is coming off a double-double, as he continues to start for Valanciunas. He is sporting a solid 23% rebounding rate with JoVal off the floor this season, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. His price has come up and this is a brutal matchup but Tillman being available as a power forward on DraftKings is very helpful.

Malcolm Brogdon is too cheap at $7,900 on DraftKings. I understand that he had a bit of a rough spell about a week ago, but this is still an awesome fantasy player that ranks third in the NBA in touches per game (95.5), while his 7.8 minutes of possession per contest are good for the fifth-most in basketball. The same argument can be made for Domantas Sabonis, who is under $9,000 on DraftKings for the first time in a while. Sure, he is coming off a down game but that was against a strong Philadelphia defensive unit. Sabonis still trails only Nikola Jokic in touches per game on the season (100.0) and this is a favorable matchup, as the Grizzlies have struggled to defend the pick and roll. Memphis is coughing up a league-worst 1.36 points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll, while also allowing a 63.3% field goal percentage off the play type, which is also the worst mark in the league. Sabonis, meanwhile, is averaging 4.3 such points per game on the year, the sixth-most in the NBA. Brogdon and Sabonis are so tough to stop in the pick and roll and I think they correlate very well in this spot.

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors

BOS -2.5, total: 226

I absolutely love this spot for Jaylen Brown. For starters, I think his $7,800 price tag on DraftKings is too cheap and while Jayson Tatum is obviously back for the Celtics, Brown is still sporting a solid 27% usage rate with Tatum on the floor this season, while averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute, which is right behind Tatum’s mark of 1.29. Brown is averaging an awesome 19.6 shot attempts per game on the year and this is a fantastic pace-up spot for Boston, facing a Golden State team that ranks second in the league in pace. That bodes extremely well for Brown, who trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo in transition points per game on the season (7.9), while shooting an impressive 66.7% off the play type. Brown is not only my favorite player from the Celtics, but he is my top overall play from this game.

Of course, you can certainly play Tatum, who has attempted 21, 25 and 18 shots in his first three games back. He is still going to dominate the usage, especially with Kemba Walker remaining limited for the foreseeable future. Boston is also without Marcus Smart, which could make Walker at least intriguing in tournaments at $6,700, especially since he’s sporting a 30% usage rate since making his season debut.

Golden State, meanwhile, really isn’t on my radar here. Stephen Curry is essentially always in play, but he isn’t a core option for me on this slate, though the matchup is certainly enhanced with Smart out of the lineup. The Warriors will be without rookie center James Wiseman for the next two weeks or so but that doesn’t necessarily mean Kevon Looney becomes a smash value play. Yes, he logged 23 minutes last game, but he also played the entire fourth quarter of a game that was a blowout. I don’t think the Warriors are going to be blowing out the Celtics here, which makes Looney a viable value option but only in tournaments. Golden State will likely have to use both Draymond Green and Eric Paschall as small ball centers in this game, as they simply don’t have anyone else to play the position outside of Looney. Green is under $5,000 on DraftKings but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, there really isn’t much of a ceiling.

Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz

UTA -12.5, total: 218

This is obviously a strong spot for the Jazz, facing a weak Pistons team. Rudy Gobert is coming off his worst game in a while, but a $7,200 price tag in this matchup is tough to ignore. The Pistons are coughing up 6.7 points per game off putbacks this season, the ninth-most in the NBA, while Gobert’s 3.4 putback points per game are good for the fourth-most in basketball. He also unsurprisingly ranks second in all of basketball in rebounding chances per game (23.0) and while we know he’s grabbing double-digit boards in this game, I think he could have a solid scoring output, too. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is a player I rarely get right in DFS. And while I’m not sure if he’ll have the huge game, at $7,00, I am certainly willing to find out. The Pistons rank 21st against dimers, per advanced DvP, but also rank 29th against primary ball handlers and 27th against crafty finishers. Outside of that, Jordan Clarkson is only in play if your thought process is that the Jazz, the hottest team in basketball, dominate the Pistons here, leading to more minutes from the Utah bench.

Once again, it is Jerami Grant or bust for the Pistons. This is a brutal matchup but Grant’s $7,000 price tag on DraftKings is the lowest it has been in quite some time.