Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The end of the workweek is upon us and for many of us, so is payday, as we’ve reached the final weekday of the month. To make things even better, we have a nine-game DFS slate to close out the week, providing a nice opportunity to multiply our recent paychecks.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
BOS -3, total: 218.5
There may not be a team running worse right now than the Celtics and frankly, it’s hard to feel bad for them, as they’ve been playing terrible basketball. This matchup isn’t one that instills a ton of confidence, either.
Kemba Walker should return to this game, which siphons some usage away from Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, but both are still strong plays at their respective prices, but neither are core plays on this slate. As odd as it may sound, the most appealing (dollar for dollar) play might be Tristan Thompson at $4,700. He’s seen at least 22 minutes in six straight games and has failed to finish below 23 DK points while topping 30 in two of his last three. With Daniel Theis seeing fewer and fewer minutes, Thompson could continue this stretch at a nice price.
I have a bit more interest in the Pacers here, as the Celtics defense has been an absolute sieve as of late. Malcolm Brogdon in particular stands out as my favorite option. On top of a 26.7% usage rate and 28.2% assist rate, he steps into a matchup with Kemba Walker, who ranks 60th out of 83 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus. Given his discount off Sabonis, he’s my top play from the Pacers.
Speaking of Sabonis, he should have no problem picking this defense apart, it’s simply a matter of whether you feel comfortable paying all the way up for him on a full slate.
Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -7, total: 220
The Rockets finally have a healthy rotation outside of Christian Wood now that Victor Oladipo and Eric Gordon are back, making the spread of this game rather surprising. With Wood and DeMarcus Cousins (who was recently released) off the floor since the James Harden trade, John Wall holds a 34.9% usage rate with a 38.5% assist rate, while Oladipo and Gordon both sit above a 27% usage rate. This Toronto defense is nothing to actively avoid, making all three intriguing options, with Oladipo being my preference assuming Wall sees Kyle Lowry on defense.
For the Raptors, this team is a bit less appealing with Lowry back and active, but he himself is probably the most appealing options at only $7,000 on DraftKings. He’s fresh off of a 49.25-point performance and comes into a matchup against a defense that ranks 28th against dimers and 15th against primary ball-handlers, per advanced DvP, presenting some opportunities to exploit for Lowry. You can also get away with Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, as we should continue to see them operate as catalysts here. Siakam in particular could see more minutes at center if forced to go small with Houston playing a lot of PJ Tucker.
This could also lead to more minutes for Chris Boucher, giving him some nice tournament upside at $5,600. He’s far from a safe play and far from a lock for 20-plus minutes, but if you think he sees more time, this is a matchup he can smash.
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls
PHX -5.5, total: 228
This is a game that comes off as very one-sided from a DFS perspective, as the Suns are stepping into a massive pace-up spot against a weak defense, while the Bulls are stepping into quite the opposite.
Because of the pace-up spot, it’s hard not to like the Suns at their prices. Chris Paul ($7,500) comes in as my favorite, especially considering the fact that he’s averaged 41 DK points per game over his last five games. He correlates well with one of either Devin Booker (27 points per game over his last five games) or Deandre Ayton, but I would advise against playing the latter two in a lineup together. Outside of the big three, it’s hard to figure out where the production on this team will come from. With Dario Saric questionable, we could potentially look to Cameron Johnson at only $3,500, as he’s posted 20-plus DK points in three of his last four games and saw 30 minutes in their last game against Charlotte. He would see an impactful uptick should Saric be unable to play.
For the Bulls, it remains Zach LaVine or bust for me, especially in a matchup with one of the better overall defensive units in the league. LaVine, however, has proven himself as matchup-proof and has been on another planet this month, averaging 31.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 48% from three during February.
Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons
SAC -1.5, total: 224
Even with the Kings on the second end of a back-to-back, this game presents us with plenty of DFS appeal given how awful the two teams are defensively.
For the Pistons, Saddiq Bey is listed as questionable, which would open up more minutes on the wing for the likes of Josh Jackson and Jerami Grant. Delon Wright is also still out, so we should continue to see Dennis Smith start at point guard with Saben Lee coming in with the second unit. The appeal of Lee, however, has been the fact that he’s consistently been closing games with the starting unit, giving him more minutes security than Smith. Over his last three games, he’s seen at least 22 minutes and scored 28 or more DK points in all of them and at $4,300, he’s an elite value in a pace-up spot against a brutal defense.
Regardless of the status of Bey, both Josh Jackson (team-high 30.8% usage rate over last two weeks with injured players out) and Jerami Grant (26.5% usage rate, 23.5% assist rate over the last two weeks) are elite plays given the matchup. Grant, in particular, has an astronomical ceiling, as the Kings rank 28th against skilled centers and 30th against both scorers and crafty finishers, per advanced DvP. Mason Plumlee is also an elite tournament play, as he has legitimate triple-double upside against a defense that ranks 30th against rebounders on top of the 28th against skilled centers ranking that was previously mentioned.
With so much interest in the Pistons (odd to repeat back to yourself, I know), it would make sense to have interest in the Kings as well. De'Aaron Fox at $7,700 makes a ton of sense here and has rounded back into form over his last two games, averaging 28 points, 9.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds per game. If you want backcourt exposure but choose to fade Fox, Tyrese Haliburton is still a strong play at $6,600. Over his last four games, he’s posted a 21.5% usage rate, 25% assist rate, and 1.23 DKP/min.
Detroit has also been an exploitable team in the paint, surrendering the sixth-highest field goal percentage in the paint (non-restricted area) at 44.3%, which caters to Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes, making them attractive tournament options.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies
LAC -8, total: 226
These two teams played a mere 24 hours ago, and the result was far from what the masses expected, as the Grizzlies won by 28. Both Paul George (13 points on 3-12 shooting in 28.1 minutes) and Kawhi Leonard (17 points on 6-14 shooting in 31.6 minutes) had disappointing games and ultimately saw the blowout lead to a slight reduction in minutes. This could bode well for them on the second leg of a back-to-back, especially if both play, ensuring a full workload.
If one sits out, however, it’s an easy flowchart to follow. Is George out? Yes? Play Kawhi. Is Kawhi out? Yes? Play George. Simple. The rest of the Clippers team is easy to pass on unless one or both of the stars are rested in this game. In that case, we would see Lou Williams and Marcus Morris step up and soak up a lot of the usage, making them viable in this scenario.
For the Grizzlies, as well as they played Thursday, I still don’t have much interest in them Friday, as it shouldn’t be overlooked just how hard it is to handle the same team twice in a two-day span, especially a team like the Clippers. If I go anywhere here, it’ll be back to the well with Jonas Valanciunas after his 16-point, 15-rebound double-double. He only played 25 minutes Thursday, which bodes well for his workload Friday, giving him enough upside at $6,800 to warrant consideration.
Ja Morant is also cheap at $7,100, but guards against the Clippers are never a spot I go out of my way to attack, so I’d rather take the savings with Valanciunas to get my Memphis exposure. A case can also be made for Dillon Brooks at only $5,200 given his tendency to shoot, as he’s averaging over 15 field goal attempts per game. At $5,200, he has the upside to get you there with raw points alone.
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
UTA -7, total: 217.5
There is literally no stopping the Jazz right now as they continue their scorched-earth pace through the NBA and the Heat don’t have a high chance at cooling them down (get it?). This matchup, however, caters much more to the NBA fan than it does the DFS player, as both of these teams play at a slower pace with good defense.
Even so, it’s hard to completely rule out Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert at their prices. The matchups are far from ideal, but both have proven that their current price tags on DraftKings are far too cheap given their ceilings, especially Gobert at $7,200. His matchup would get exponentially more appealing if Bam Adebayo is ruled out as well. Mike Conley also feels a touch cheap, especially considering how much Kendrick Nunn we think he could see on the defensive side, as this is a matchup worth trying to exploit.
The Heat side is contingent on two key pieces of news — Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. If one or both of them are ruled out, Jimmy Butler would get a nice bump in rates, but even if they’re active, he’s still posted a 26.3% usage rate, 39.9% assist rate, 13.8% rebounding rate, and 1.38 DKP/min over the last two weeks.
The potential absence of Adebayo would also open up minutes for Kelly Olynyk and while the matchup is hard to buy into, he’s still averaged roughly a fantasy point per minute (0.96) over the last two seasons without Adebayo, while posting a 15.5% assist rate and 12.8% rebounding rate.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
ATL -4.5, total: 223.5
Trae Young continues to come in under $10,000 on DraftKings and it really doesn’t make sense. He’s topped 50 DK points in five straight games, averaging 33.4 points, 10.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds over that span and the Thunder are not a team that are likely to slow him down. He’s a phenomenal tournament play at what should be low ownership.
Both John Collins and Clint Capela are also great options for Hawks exposure, as the Thunder frontcourt has allowed the third-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area this season (67.5%) giving both a ton of upside. Collins is ridiculously cheap ($6,400 on DraftKings) for his ceiling. There’s also still merit to Kevin Huerter on FanDuel as he typically makes for a safe SG2 option, especially if Cam Reddish is ruled out. This would also open up more minutes for Danilo Gallinari who looked like prime Larry Bird against the Celtics last game, scoring 38 points off the bench on 10-12 from three. While that outcome was clearly his top-0.1%, he still has some merit at $5,000 in tournaments if Reddish is ruled out.
For the Thunder, this is an enticing pace-up spot where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander checks all of the boxes we want: a close spread, high usage and peripheral rates, great recent form and a matchup with one of the worst defensive point guards in basketball. He’s perfectly in play at $8,800 on DraftKings, but at $8,000 on FanDuel, he comes in as my favorite shooting guard on the slate.
Outside of SGA, however, this is a rather unappealing Thunder team unless we see Al Horford as a surprise inactive and Isaiah Roby starts (which is unlikely since the Thunder didn’t play Thursday). Luguentz Dort is still cheap enough to warrant consideration as a value filler given the matchup, but his floor remains low, even for $4,800.
Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -6, total: 233
This is a matchup that we saw a mere six days ago, resulting in a 102-100 win for the Hornets. That game, however, was a bit of an oddity. Stephen Curry was ruled out after lock with an illness, while LaMelo Ball and Draymond Green each missed portions of the game to nurse injuries.
Ahead of this game, however, the injury report doesn’t hold any surprises, as Devonte' Graham has already been ruled out. The one question mark is the status of Cody Zeller, who’s currently listed as questionable. If he sits out, we would likely see a handful of extra center minutes for P.J. Washington, especially against a Warriors team that is no stranger to going small with Green at the five. If that becomes the case, Washington has a ton of appeal.
LaMelo Ball also remains viable, even at $8,700, as this is a pace-up spot for one of the better transition point guards in the NBA. He’s topped 40 DK points in three of his last four games, with the outlier being this same game last week. Expect a bounceback Friday.
For the third game in a row, I’ll be avoiding Terry Rozier like the plague. His efficiency is starting to normalize a bit (sub-50% in three of his last four games) and he’s been priced up to $8,400 after failing to top 25 DK points in back-to-back games. Sure, this is a viable matchup, but at his price, he needs to get 50-plus DK points to really make an impact. If that’s what beats me on this slate, so be it, but I’ll be looking elsewhere.
I’d be more inclined to save a boatload of salary and go for Malik Monk, who has posted 29-plus DK points in three of his last four games, or opt for Gordon Hayward, whose $6,700 price tag is extremely appealing and mitigates a bit of the floor that he’s demonstrated on occasion this season.
The Warriors are an equally appealing team, as Curry and Green check in as elite plays on this slate. Curry has topped 50 DK points in three of his last four games while Green has topped 45 DK points in two of his last three games against the Hornets where he saw 30 or more minutes.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -5.5, total: 222
While the Lakers got blown out against the Jazz last game led to LeBron James playing only 28 minutes, this could’ve been the best thing to happen for us relative to this game. LeBron now comes into this game on a full day of rest and almost half of a workload in his last game, giving him an even better chance at taking full advantage of Portland’s defense (or lack thereof). He should also benefit from the hopeful return of Dennis Schroder, who should take some pressure off James on the offensive end.
Outside of those two, it’s hard to endorse the ancillary pieces. Talen Horton-Tucker should return to his bench role with Schroder back in the fold, capping his upside severely, while Kyle Kuzma has shown virtually no ceiling to justify paying over $6,000 for him.
For the Blazers, the absence of Anthony Davis should work wonders around the rim for Enes Kanter, who ranks seventh in the NBA in rebounding rate (20.7%) and fourth in rebounding chances per game (20.4). This should also help Damian Lillard around the rim, as he ranks top-12 in the NBA in drives per game (15.6) and sixth overall in points per game off drives (9.8).
If you want to stack this game for a late-night hammer, you can also get away with Robert Covington ($6,000) and Gary Trent ($5,700). Covington will likely do a lot of defending on James when he’s within the three-point arc, giving him a heightened ceiling for defensive peripherals, while Trent has been minutes and volume-hog in the absence of CJ McCollum.
