NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 10

Following suit with what has been a rather balanced week in terms of NBA slates, Wednesday’s DFS slate presents us with nine total games and a handful of teams on the second leg of back-to-backs.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.

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Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards

TOR -5.5, total: 232.5

There’s egregious pricing, and then there’s whatever the hell DraftKings is doing with Russell Westbrook. Priced at $8,400, Westbrook may be one of the biggest bargains of the entire season, as you’re getting a 30.5% usage rate, 42.6% assist rate, and 1.38 DKP/min for almost a $2,000 discount. Regardless of the opponent, Westbrook is a core play for me at this price.

Bradley Beal is also cheap enough to warrant consideration, although not quite as enticing as Westbrook. Even with him active, he has the highest usage rate in the NBA (36.9%) and should be relied upon heavily if Washington wants to keep this close. If you want a piece of the Wizards but choose to fade Westbrook, Beal is the easy choice.

As always, if a team if playing the Wizards, I am going to want a piece of the action. Kyle Lowry stands out as my favorite out of the big three between him, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam. This is especially true on FanDuel, where he’s a whole $1,700 cheaper than VanVleet and $1,800 cheaper than Siakam. All three are viable, but give me the savings so I can spend elsewhere.

My favorite Raptor on the evening is Chris Boucher, and it feels good to finally have the confidence to play him. Over his last three games, Boucher’s minutes have come back up (29.5 per game) and he’s averaged 19.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game. Giving him at least 20 minutes in this matchup is a goldmine, but adding in the fact that there’s an increased chance for blowout run makes it even better. At his price, he’s my top overall Toronto asset. 

Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -4, total: 232

A repeat of a game that we saw just last week, Luka Doncic steps into a phenomenal spot once again after posting a 27-point, 14-assist, 8-rebound line against Trae Young in their last meeting. Both he and Kristaps Porzingis (29% usage rate, 1.47 DKP/min over the last week) are elite options in this spot, it’s just a matter of whether or not you can get there with so many other elite targets on the slate.

Outside of those two, it’s slim pickings for the Mavs. Dorian Finney-Smith is a viable value option on a slate that is currently starved for legitimate value, as he has 35-minute upside in a pace-up spot, but his ceiling isn’t necessarily attractive for taking down a GPP.

For the Hawks, Trae Young is always in play, though Dallas has been much more susceptible to frontcourt production this season than they have against backcourt production. For this reason, if I am targeting Hawks players, it’ll be Clint Capela and John Collins. The Mavericks are giving up a top-five field goal percentage at the rim and baking that in with the shot-blocking upside that comes with these two against Doncic (the league leader in drives per game), they both make for great plays in a game-stack here.

If pressing for an off-guard here, Kevin Huerter feels safer than Cam Reddish, but neither feel like necessities on a loaded nine-game slate.

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -2, total: 235

At this point, if a team is playing against the Nets, you want to target them. It also helps when their prices are discounted to the point that we see with Malcolm Brogdon ($7,400), Domantas Sabonis ($8,600) and Myles Turner ($6,000). Getting at least one of these three is going to be imperative, as Brooklyn has now allowed 120 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games and have struggled mightily in the paint.

For the Nets, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden should continue to get a bump in usage and peripheral rates without Durant (assuming both play on the second leg of a back-to-back). If one sits, the other becomes an elite play, but if both play, neither of them need to be considered locks outside of a game-stack. If game-stacking, Irving is my preferred target simply due to the discount as it’s easier to fit him alongside the plethora of mid-to-high tier players that have already been mentioned.

As for the ancillary pieces, Justin Holiday ($5,500) and Jeremy Lamb ($5,400) are viable at their prices given the matchup, while there’s potential for Bruce Brown ($4,400) to see an increased role if Harden or Irving potentially sit out. If that becomes the case, he would be a viable value play.

Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -4, total: 224

LaMelo Ball’s price continues to go up, but so do his numbers, as he’s averaged 1.34 DKP/min over the last week with a 28.1% usage rate, 26.8% assist rate, and 9.9% rebounding rate. While there are plenty of options in this range to pay up for, Ball may be one of the lower owned ones.

Gordon Hayward also feels a touch cheap at $7,700 given his 25.4% usage rate and 1.20 DKP/min clip over that same week, but he’s far from a priority.

For the Grizzlies, it’s hard to ignore the spot for Jonas Valanciunas after a 27-point, 20-rebound game in 34 minutes last game, as Charlotte ranks 23rd against rim protectors, 23rd against skilled centers, and 29th against rebounders per FTN’s advanced DvP.

Ja Morant at $7,300 is a targetable price assuming he can see a repeat of the 37 minutes he saw last game, while Desmond Bane is the lone value play ($4,100) that stands out here as he drew the start for Brandon Clarke last game. Charlotte struggles from deep, which is exactly where Bane thrives.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

LAC -10.5, total: 222.5

Paul George has been ruled out for the next pair of games as he nurses a foot injury, which slots Kawhi Leonard into the top-play-of-the-slate discussion at only $9,400. Over the last two seasons, Leonard has posted a 35.5% usage rate, 26.2% assist rate, 12.1% rebounding rate and 1.56 DKP/min with George out, making this an easy call Wednesday.

Outside of Leonard, it’s really tough to peg where the production will come from for the Clippers team. Terance Mann saw 26 minutes last game after the head coach said that he wants to get him more involved and could see a similar workload once again with George out. Out of him, Lou Williams, Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard, Mann is my favorite.

For the Timberwolves, their viability is completely contingent on whether D'Angelo Russell plays. If he sits, you can take a shot on Malik Beasley, who holds a 28.2% usage rate with him off of the floor. This would also open up shots for rookie Anthony Edwards (29% usage rate sans Russell), but it’s hard to peg who I would prioritize until we forecast who Kawhi Leonard would be guarding, as that would make them an easy fade compared to the other.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls

NOP -3, total: 231

The Pelicans have run at a sloth-like pace under Stan Van Gundy this season, but this is a matchup where that’s bound to change, which caters directly to Zion Williamson. While his rebounding upside remains capped as long as Steven Adams is on the court, he thrives in transition and still carries a 27.6% usage rate. If you choose to fade Williamson, Brandon Ingram is a phenomenal pivot, as he has a 27.7% usage rate and 21% assist rate. Both are averaging 1.17 DKP/min or higher, making them great targets at their prices.

Lonzo Ball ($6,600) has seen his price climb but has averaged 17.3 points, seven rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game over his last four games. Against a Bulls team that loves to run in transition, Ball is a perfectly viable play once again. Josh Hart is also only $4,300 coming off a massive 20-point, 17-rebound double-double on Tuesday. While he saw 40 minutes and could be scaled back on the second leg of a back-to-back, he could be a viable value at $4,300 in a pace-up spot.

On the Bulls side, it’s hard to target this team against what has been a respectable defensive unit and has the tendency to slow the game down. If needing to choose one, Zach LaVine continues to make the most sense, although I can’t justify him over the others in his price range that have previously been hit on.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -9.5, total: 219

Andre Drummond is once again too cheap, regardless of matchup. Since the trade involving Jarrett Allen (Jan. 14), Drummond has averaged 1.52 DKP/min with a 31.3% usage rate and 28% rebounding rate. At $8,200, he makes for one of my favorite low-owned centers on the slate, as the odds people target him in a matchup with Nikola Jokic are incredibly low.

Outside of Drummond, Collin Sexton makes some sense at $7,000 flat, as he’s held a 29.4% usage rate in the same span noted above. This is also an exploitable matchup, as Denver still ranks 25th in defensive efficiency as a whole.

For the Nuggets, Jokic is quite literally never a bad play, there are simply better per-dollar options elsewhere that allow for more flexible roster construction. He’s put together an MVP-caliber season, however, posting a 30.5% usage rate, 38% assist rate, 18.6% rebounding rate, and 1.61 DKP/min, making him an elite play in general, just one that doesn’t cater to my personal preference in terms of lineup construction on this slate.

Will Barton and Michael Porter remain cheap enough to warrant consideration with Gary Harris and PJ Dozier still out, but both carry ridiculously low floors, making them better suited for GPPs.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -11.5, total: 219

Anthony Davis is listed as questionable. If he misses his second consecutive game, we can confidently fire up LeBron James once again. He posted 74.5 DK points last game in the same scenario and has averaged 58 DK points per game over his last five games.

This would also allow us to target Kyle Kuzma, who would also see blowout run with or without Davis active. If Davis is in, however, we can feel free to fade the Lakers (and game) as a whole.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been ruled out, as have Theo Maledon and George Hill, which leaves Hamidou Diallo as the lone guard left in the rotation. At $6,500, there may be some initial sticker-shock in this matchup, but given the responsibility, he’ll take on, it’s justified. $4,400 for Luguentz Dort is also an appealing price given the lack of depth in the backcourt, making him one of the more appealing value plays on the slate by default.

Al Horford is also an intriguing option at $6,200 if Anthony Davis is out. He’s attempted 39 total shots over his last two games and that number will certainly go up in a game without Gilgeous-Alexander. While he’s best left for GPPs considering the fact that Myles Turner and Chris Boucher are in the same price tier, he’s demonstrated a 50-point fantasy ceiling, making him a great play if Davis is out.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns

MIL -4.5, total: 226.5

Jrue Holiday remains out as he works through the health and safety protocols, which should continue to open up more usage for Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. While Antetokounmpo is never a bad play, especially in what should be a close and competitive game, Middleton checks in as my favorite Bucks player. He posted 29 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds in the last game without Holiday and should be in line for a similar role in 35-plus minutes for under $8,000. If you are scripting this to be a competitive game but choose to fade Giannis, it makes sense to get Middleton exposure.

Giannis’ $10,600 price tag makes him my favorite option between him, Jokic and Doncic, considering the slight discount. If spending all the way up, he’s my pick.

Bryn Forbes is an interesting play at $3,800, as he drew the spot-start for Holiday last game. He has the ability to get you there strictly off of raw points at his price, so any added peripherals can operate as a pleasant bonus.

For the Suns, the status of Chris Paul is wildly important, as his absence led to ceiling games for both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, who remain too cheap. While the blowout potential would grow sans Paul, both Booker and Ayton would be far too cheap.

This would also justify E'Twaun Moore at his sub-$4,000 price once again, as he drew the start for an absent Chris Paul last game. If Paul plays, however, he’s easy to fade.