Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After Monday’s five-game NBA DFS slate that lost a handful of star players, we move onto Tuesday’s 10-game slate that could also be short some superstar players. Because we are still so early in the season, it is a bit difficult to separate the signal from the noise with a handful of players and teams but the more we watch and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.
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New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -3.5; total: 217
The Cavs are off to a nice 3-0 start, but they might be without Kevin Love for a bit. Love aggravated his calf injury and lasted just nine minutes against the 76ers Sunday night. He has already been ruled out for this game. Larry Nance is always someone that is worth a look when Love is out, but he is priced up to $6,300 on DraftKings, forcing you to make a decision. He still has upside at that price tag, however. In nearly 90 minutes of court time without Love already this season, Nance is sporting a 28% rebounding rate and 15% assist rate, while averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute. In 10 games as a starter a season ago, Nance averaged a strong 14.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game in just under 36 minutes of action. And of course, Andre Drummond sets up as a very strong play, as he has a usage rate north of 35% in 54 minutes with Love off the floor this season, while also posting a 50% rebounding rate and 1.62 fantasy points per minute. Through three games, Drummond is averaging a whopping 21.7 rebounding chances per game, while converting nearly 68% of those opportunities. With Kevin Porter and Isaac Okoro also ruled out again, Nance and Drummond should have to play massive minutes in this game.
I once again have no issues with Darius Garland, who is still just $5,900 on DraftKings. He looks much more comfortable so far in his sophomore season and is playing the role of facilitator in this offense, as he is averaging 22 assist points created per game, a top-10 mark in the league here in the early-going.
New York, meanwhile, is coming off an upset win over the Bucks and Julius Randle was obviously a huge reason why. The veteran power forward torched Milwaukee to the tune of 29 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists. Randle has now played 35, 35 and 37 minutes in Tom Thibodeau’s system, which isn’t too surprising but is certainly welcome. He is sporting a 27.4% usage rate, while averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute. Their offense is absolutely running through Randle, who is averaging a gaudy 96.3 touches per game through the first three games, as well as 8.0 post-ups per game. Those numbers would rank second and sixth in basketball last season. The price tag is elevated but so is Randle’s role and usage on this team, while a matchup against Cleveland is nothing to fear.
Looking elsewhere on New York, Elfrid Payton struggled in his first two games but bounced back against Milwaukee, scoring over 43 fantasy points. His poor play in the first two games resulted in limited minutes but he climbed back up to 29 on Sunday. With Austin Rivers, Dennis Smith and Immanuel Quickley all out again, Payton should play around 30 minutes with upside for more. And if Alec Burks (ankle) can’t suit up, you could legitimately consider six or seven players from this team, as they’d be incredibly short-handed.
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
IND -1.5; total: 221
These teams met Sunday night and with no injury changes, the analysis is essentially the same as it was then.
Domantas Sabonis wasn’t as good against Boston the other night, but he still scored over 41 fantasy points, while also playing 41 minutes. Through the first three games, Sabonis is averaging a whopping 103.7 touches per game, good for the third-most in the NBA. He is also sixth in the league in rebounding chances per contest (20.3), giving him plenty of double-double (or even triple-double) upside. If you ask me, Sabonis’ price tag is still a bit too low and I’ll be attacking it once again against a Boston interior defense that is improved this season but still vulnerable. I also like T.J. Warren’s $5,900 price tag on DraftKings, especially now that we’ve seen him play more minutes. He logged 38 minutes last game, which is a good sign that his foot injury is a thing of the past. Warren will likely be one of the first players pulled from the game in a blowout, but this contest features the closest spread on the slate.
Finally, Malcolm Brogdon remains a very safe play each night. He’s locked into 35 or 36 minutes and currently ranks sixth in the NBA in time of possession per game (7.3 minutes) after averaging 6.8 minutes of possession per game a season ago.
For the Celtics, it is either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, as the young duo is dominating the usage for Boston this season. With Gordon Hayward gone and Kemba Walker sidelined, there just isn’t anyone else on this team to demand touches, resulting in Tatum and Brown sporting usage rates of 33.8 and 31 percent. Tatum’s touches per game, meanwhile, are up by about 30 so far this season.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -1.5; total: 219.5
Joel Embiid sat out Sunday night but will be back in the lineup for this game. And guess what? He is under $10,000 on DraftKings, meaning I’ll have plenty of interest, especially since this matchup against Toronto isn’t anywhere near as tough without Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons is under $9,000 and the floor is always there with him because of how many different stats he accumulates. Finally, it isn’t a terrible matchup for Tobias Harris, who is averaging 6.0 spot-up points per game so far this season, while the Raptors allowed the most points per game to spot-up shooters a season ago. The problem is that his price came up after his productive game over the weekend with Embiid sidelined.
Fred VanVleet is my favorite player from the Raptors, as he draws the best individual matchup. VanVleet is coming off a very strong game and, like Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam, will play 35-37 minutes in any competitive contest. Aron Baynes, meanwhile, is a risky option, especially with the way Chris Boucher is playing, but with Embiid on the other side, Baynes could get back to that 26- to 28-minute mark. Boucher was outstanding in Toronto’s last game, allowing him to close out the game and play the entire fourth quarter.
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons
GSW -3.5; total: 222.5
Detroit is coming off the front end of a back-to-back where they rested both Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose. I’d expect both players to return to the lineup for this game, which really limits my interest in the Pistons for fantasy. Griffin is under $7,000 on DraftKings and actually gets a pretty enticing matchup against the Warriors, who have been forced to start Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson at power forward with Draymond Green out. Golden State is surrendering 11 points per game to the roll man out of pick-and-roll sets so far this season, which is the most in the NBA thus far, so we could see Blake be involved in that part of the game here.
Stephen Curry is firmly in play again at $9,600 on DraftKings, especially considering he is now playing the fourth quarter, which is a nice bonus. Curry went off for 56 fantasy points against the Bulls in his last game and is still offering the same type of upside, as he’s attempted 35 three-pointers in the first three games of the season. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre is off to a brutal start, shooting 7-of-40 from the field. However, his price has come down and he’ll be forced to play plenty of minutes. He is also averaging seven rebounds per game, benefiting from Green’s absence, so if the shot starts falling, Oubre could smash his current price tag.
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
WAS -4; total: 223.5
After resting over the weekend, Russell Westbrook is back for the Wizards. He is $9,700 on DK, a price tag that I believe is $1,000 too cheap when you consider that we are essentially seeing Oklahoma City Westbrook so far with Washington. Through two games, Westbrook has recorded two triple-doubles, while sporting a healthy 35.1% usage rate, a top-10 number in the league. Meanwhile, he is also averaging 18.5 rebounding chances per game, which puts him inside the top-12 in basketball. Keep in mind that in his three-year stretch averaging a triple-double, Westbrook averaged 17.1 rebounding opportunities per game. His 19.5 potential assists per game also trail only James Harden so we really are seeing OKC usage from Russ in Washington. Having said all of that, I will gladly play him at a too-cheap price tag, especially against an awful Bulls defense that is currently allowing the highest field goal percentage off isolations in the NBA.
With Westbrook back, I likely won’t play Bradley Beal very much at an elevated price tag, though it is worth noting that his 36% usage rate is slightly higher than it was a season ago. The same likely goes for Thomas Bryant, who had a very strong game last time out but that was without Westbrook. He only has a 20% rebounding rate with Westbrook on the floor, while Russ’ is at 36 percent.
For the Bulls, we have to see if Lauri Markkanen suits up. He is questionable to play with a calf injury. With Thaddeus Young listed as probable, he should make his season debut and could immediately play 25-27 minutes, making him a very viable value play at just $3,700. Young averaged a respectable 0.93 fantasy points per minute with Markkanen off the floor last season, while his rebound rate jumped to a solid 20% mark. Rookie Patrick Williams has been starting and although Young will be back, his playing time could remain the same if Markkanen sits, keeping him in play.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
MIL -5.5; total: 222.5
Jimmy Butler aggravated his ankle injury on Christmas Day and is listed as doubtful to play in this contest. This is very notable and makes the Heat a lot more interesting for fantasy purposes. With Butler off the court last season, Goran Dragic’s usage rate jumped up by 3%, putting him at a 28.6% clip. He also posted a 19% assist rate and averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Butler sidelined. Meanwhile, Tyler Herro, who has already been running a ton of point guard this season, saw a near three% usage bump, hovering at a 25% clip. Once Butler left the game over the weekend, Dragic immediately ran the Miami offense, while finishing with a 29% usage rate. It is hard not to like him tonight, while Herro is firmly in play, too. This is also a very appealing pace-up spot for Miami, which is exactly what we want for fantasy.
However, I still want to play Bam Adebayo, who averaged 1.31 fantasy points per minute with Butler on the bench last season. His assist rate also jumped up to 19%, while his rebounding rate was fantastic at 32 percent. There is a very nice combination of floor and ceiling at his $8,000 price tag. Finally, you could do worse than Andre Iguodala at $3,700 on DraftKings with Butler out. He played 26 minutes last game and doesn’t have to do much at that price.
No one really stands out for Milwaukee, meanwhile. You can always play Giannis Antetokounmpo, and I’ll have exposure, especially since other elite studs like Luka Doncic, James Harden and Anthony Davis aren’t on the slate. However, he hasn’t been shooting the ball very well, while Adebayo is an elite rim protector. Butler being out also helps Khris Middleton.
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
ORL -5; total: 219.5
This definitely isn’t my favorite game on the slate, as it features two teams that typically play relatively slow, though they both rank inside the top-10 in pace so far this season. Nikola Vucevic is really fairly priced, but I’d much rather play centers like Sabonis, Adebayo or Drummond, all of whom are priced right around Vucevic. As for the rest of the Magic, Aaron Gordon’s minutes are still likely to be capped around the 30-minute mark, which hurts his upside, though continuing to play the power forward position helps his overall fantasy production, for sure.
For Oklahoma City, Al Horford and Darius Bazley are both power forward eligible on DK, though the latter has been the safer bet for rebounds. He’s hauled in 11 and 10 boards over the first two games so if I am going to play one of the two, it would likely be Bazley, especially since his minutes are safer as the Thunder continue to take a longer look at their younger players.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -3; total: 222.5
Once again, I just want to keep playing both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, who are playing so many minutes under Stan Van Gundy. Ingram has played 37, 37 and 35 minutes, while Zion has played 38 minutes in each of the last two games. Ingram leads the team with a 31.6% usage rate, while attempting 19.6 shots per game. The Suns were a poor isolation defense last season, surrendering a league-worst 8.8 such points per contest, as well as the seventh-highest field goal percentage to the play type (42.6%). However, if choosing between the two, I’m leaning toward Williamson, mainly because the Suns don’t have anyone to slow him down. Dario Saric, Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson don’t really stand a chance, while Zion is getting to his spot with ease, averaging 5.3 points per game off cuts so far this season. The Suns don’t offer much rim protection and in 2019, they surrendered 50 paint points per game.
The minutes haven’t been incredible, but I really like Chris Paul’s $7,100 price tag on DraftKings. He is averaging 7.1 minutes of possession per game thus far, as well as nearly 84 touches per game. Mikal Bridges is locked into huge minutes, which is nothing new, but his price is a bit high for someone who sees inconsistent offensive usage. His shot was falling last game and he is averaging 6.7 transition points per contest, while the Pelicans were a putrid transition defense a season ago, coughing up the third-most points per possession (1.16), as well as the second-highest field goal percentage (56%). Finally, Devin Booker is doing more off the ball this season, which has hurt his upside, as he’s yet to reach 40 fantasy points in a game. However, a monster game is on the horizon and I want to be on Booker when it happens.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -9; total: 229.5
Karl-Anthony Towns is nursing a wrist injury that will keep him out for this game. KAT missed Sunday’s game against the Lakers and as a result, Minnesota inserted Naz Reid into the starting lineup. Reid led the team with a 24% rebounding rate with Towns off the floor a season ago and he was pretty productive in 28 minutes against the Lakers, scoring 11 points to go along with five rebounds, four assists and two steals. D'Angelo Russell, meanwhile, sported a 29% usage rate without Towns during his time with Minnesota last season, while his usage rate the other night with KAT out was around 26 percent. Russell is a player who loves to score off the pick-and-roll, while often getting to the mid range. 28% of his shot attempts last year came from the free throw line, while the Clippers are currently allowing a 51.3% field goal percentage from that part of the floor, the fourth-worst rate in basketball.
Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is still questionable with his mouth laceration, though the Clippers stated it is all about comfort and not so much actually being hurt. I’m guessing Leonard plays, but if he doesn’t, you basically know what to do. With Leonard off the floor a season ago, Paul George’s usage rate jumped up to 33.4%, a solid 3.4% bump. He also averaged 1.47 fantasy points per minute. Lou Williams’ usage rate also hovered around 33% with Leonard off the floor and his current price tag on DraftKings is one of the lowest I’ve seen for him in a long time. Luke Kennard started in place of Leonard Sunday afternoon and if he sits again, you can safely go back to him against a Minnesota defense that is one of the worst in all of basketball.
Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings
DEN -2.5; total: 223.5
Denver is coming off the front end of a back-to-back, meaning the Nuggets could rest one or two players. If they were to rest anyone, it would probably be Gary Harris, who has had serious injury concerns over the course of his career. Nikola Jokic is off to a scorching start in 2020, recording a triple-double in two of his first three games. He is once again among the league leaders in touches per game and while some may worry about his minutes here, it is worth noting that in 10 games with zero days rest last year, Jokic still averaged 34 minutes per game. Jamal Murray, meanwhile, has been shooting the ball much better as of late and is still just $7,000 on DK. If Denver rests a veteran like Paull Millsap in this game, Michael Porter would certainly see a boost.
