Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s time again to look at our favorite NBA DFS plays of the day. There may be football Sunday, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy a nice evening of basketball, right?
This is an interesting slate, as at least one team is coming off the front end of a back-to-back in each game, meaning you really need to make sure you are on top of news to see which veterans may have the day off. That news will drastically change the landscape of an entire slate.
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Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards
WAS -1; total: 228
This is a rematch of Saturday night’s contest, meaning it is the second end of a back-to-back for both teams. It is more noteworthy for the Wizards because it’s possible that Russell Westbrook rests for this game. Head coach Scott Brooks stated in the preseason that Westbrook would rest in back-to-back sets this season, though it isn’t a lock that he sits Sunday evening. Of course, if he does, Bradley Beal would benefit in a huge way. Beal sported a 34.5% usage rate a season ago (sixth) on essentially the exact same Wizards team minus Westbrook, so you’d expect the ball to be in his hands quite a bit in this one. In a limited sample size this season, Beal’s usage rate is hovering around 40% with Westbrook off the court. With Beal possibly running the show, matchup really doesn’t matter but it is also worth noting that the Wizards used Beal a ton off screens last year, as he averaged 3.1 points per game off screens in 2019 (sixth-most), while the Magic surrendered 5.9 points per game off screens, tied for the fifth-most in the NBA.
Meanwhile, it’s also possible (and perhaps likely) that Davis Bertans also rests. He has been limited to 20 minutes in each of the first two games of the season and could very well get the night off here. If that is the case, Washington will be very short-handed, as Rui Hachimura is already unavailable for a while. Rookie Deni Avdija has been starting and logged 28 minutes in the opener and while the usage hasn’t been anything crazy, perhaps that goes up if Westbrook doesn’t suit up.
I always start with Nikola Vucevic when breaking down the Magic. As I discussed this past week, he has one of the safest floors in fantasy, reaching the 40-point mark in around 71% of his games a season ago. He scored just over 39 DK points in a tough matchup with the Heat Wednesday night but rebounded nicely against this same Wizards team Saturday. $8,300 on DK is a price I’d look to exploit in this spot, especially with Washington allowing a league-high field goal percentage to the roll man out of pick and roll sets a season ago (59%), as well as the most points per possession to the play type (1.24). Vucevic, meanwhile, finished third in the NBA in such points per game in 2019 (5.8).
Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon’s minutes have been limited a bit to start the season. He was held to 26 minutes in the opener and although that number climbed during Orlando’s second game, it is possible he remains limited or sits entirely on the second end of the back-to-back. With James Ennis already out, Terrence Ross played 29 minutes Wednesday and 28 Saturday. At $4,700, I’ll have some interest, especially if Gordon is out or limited again. The Wizards coughed up the most points per possession off screens last season (1.07), while Ross averaged more points per game off screens than any player in basketball (4.3).
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets
BKN -8; total: 226
It’s early, but the Nets look terrifyingly good right now.
Until they get priced to an egregious point, both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are seemingly in play each night. The only concern is that the Nets could easily run away with their third straight game, limiting the minutes a bit for the two superstars. Both did play 33 minutes against the Celtics on Christmas Day, but Durant didn’t even step onto the floor in the fourth quarter. Irving, meanwhile, played the entire third quarter and around five minutes of the final frame. Irving is slightly cheaper and seems to have a somewhat safer projection for minutes, which makes me favor him if choosing between the two. For what it is worth, according to our advanced DVP, the Hornets ranked dead last in basketball against superstars a season ago … and they face two of them Sunday night.
I’m not really interested in anyone else from the Nets, however. If choosing one player, it would be Joe Harris, who is now below $5,000 on DraftKings. He is going to get plenty of open looks in this offense, which will result in a lot of spot-ups. The Hornets surrendered the second-most points per game to spot-up shooters last year (30.4), while also ranking 25th against shooters, per our advanced DVP. This is also a great spot for centers, but DeAndre Jordan and Jarrett Allen are both eating away at each other’s minutes and production, while both are too expensive to roster in a timeshare.
Only two players from Charlotte interest me. Bismack Biyombo entered the starting lineup Saturday with Cody Zeller out and was fairly productive, scoring five points in 30 minutes, while adding nine rebounds and four assists. He is still just $3,800 on DK for this game and with Brooklyn having either Allen or Jordan on the floor at all times, Charlotte will need Biyombo to combat that size. In 29 games as a starter last season, Biyombo averaged 8.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 3.1 offensive rebounds per game. Then there is P.J. Washington, who played some small ball five for the Hornets Saturday night, ultimately finishing the game with 18 points, eight boards and an assist in 29 minutes. Zeller’s absence should allow him to pick him some extra minutes at the five, which will also add to his rebounding potential.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -5; total: 228
The Pelicans got terrific production from their two stars on Christmas Day. Brandon Ingram went for 28 points, while Zion Williamson was all over the floor, scoring 32 points and adding 14 rebounds. Head coach Stan Van Gundy is running an extremely tight rotation right now, as Ingram and Zion played 37 and 38 minutes, respectively. Meanwhile, the Pelicans only really used eight players, with six players logging at least 28 minutes. Ingram has played 37 minutes in both games this season and makes for a very strong play again. The ball is in his hands a lot, as he’s sporting a 29.2% usage rate, while also averaging seven isolation possessions per game through two outings. Both Ingram and Williamson have nice price tags given the minutes they are going to see. The Spurs also ranked 23rd against skilled centers a season ago, which is one of Zion’s archetypes.
For the Spurs, I still like chasing Dejounte Murray’s upside, especially in games where San Antonio will play faster-paced teams who also often play sloppy. Murray’s minutes have been much more trustworthy with Bryn Forbes out of town and Derrick White still banged up, as he’s been starting and played 31 minutes in their opening game of the season. The Spurs themselves are also playing faster so far this season, too, which bodes well for Murray. Lonnie Walker is also just $5,000 on DraftKings and is locked into strong minutes at the moment.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PHI -6; total: 218.5
This is the second end of a back-to-back for both teams, so we’ll have to keep an eye on news, as some players could rest or see limited minutes. Andre Drummond is at a comfortable price, and we could see Kevin Love potentially rest in this game, but Drummond has not had a great track record against Joel Embiid during the course of their careers. In fact, in seven career games against Embiid, Drummond is averaging just over 41 DK points per game, while recording fewer than 30 points in two of those contests. We know Embiid is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but he also induces a ton of fouls, as he was fouled on over 19% of his shot attempts a season ago, one of the higher marks in basketball. Meanwhile, if Love does sit, Larry Nance has been priced up to the point where you really don’t have to play him in this spot. If I am using anyone from the Cavs in this game, it is Darius Garland, who is just $5,900 on DraftKings, a price tag that is a bit too low. Garland has been great through two games this season, averaging 21.5 points, nine assists and 5.5 rebounds per game. The second-year player looks a lot more comfortable and more engaged and while Collin Sexton has been the more aggressive scorer, Garland has been collecting the peripherals and offers a $1,200 discount. With Matthew Dellavedova and Kevin Porter likely out again for this game, Garland’s minutes should remain solidified.
Embiid is under $10,000 on DraftKings and in a good matchup, meaning I have interest. He’s been very good through two games and faces a Cavaliers defensive unit that surrendered a 66.5% field goal percentage at the rim last year, the third-worst rate in basketball. Ben Simmons is a fine play at his price tag and the floor is massive but if spending up, I prefer Embiid.
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks
MIL -11; total: 223.5
The Bucks are nearly 12-point favorites in this game, which means you have to decide what you want to do with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s really fairly priced, but he hasn’t been shooting the ball very well to start the season and could be capped at around 31 minutes for this game. Khris Middleton has been Milwaukee’s best player in the early going but is nearly $8,000 on DraftKings. I’m not saying playing one of these Milwaukee studs is a bad idea but if you do it, I’d do it in tournaments and run it back with someone from the other side of this game.
Julius Randle seems to have an awesome floor, but if you play Giannis or Middleton, I’d run it back with Randle and look for the ceiling. He’s played 34 and 35 minutes in his first two games under new head coach Tom Thibodeau and his minutes should remain solidified with rookie Obi Toppin out for the next 7-10 days. With Toppin out, both Reggie Bullock and Kevin Knox make for viable value plays, though I prefer Bullock who is $400 cheaper and remained in the starting lineup Saturday night.
Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls
GSW -3; total: 227.5
There is a lot to like about this game, and it’s one you can certainly stack up. The Warriors have been destroyed in each of their first two games and as a result, Stephen Curry has played a total of zero fourth-quarter minutes. Expect that to change Sunday night, as the Warriors are three-point road favorites against a weak Bulls team. Through two games, Curry is sporting a usage rate north of 33%, while averaging a healthy 84 touches per game, despite not even stepping on the floor in the fourth quarter yet. I’ll have plenty of exposure to Curry in this plus matchup against the Bulls.
Meanwhile, Draymond Green, who has missed the first two games of the year, could make his debut Sunday. I probably won’t look to him on this slate, but it would obviously impact someone like Eric Paschall. James Wiseman is an interesting GPP option, especially if you are stacking this game up. He’s done a lot of his damage in the fourth quarter of blowouts so far this season but has also shown serious promise, while the rookie has not been shy. The Bulls are a good matchup for opposing centers, as they surrendered the seventh-highest field goal percentage at the rim last year at 65.6%, while also coughing up the fourth-most putback points per contest (7.0).
For the Bulls, Zach LaVine profiles pretty well here. He leads the NBA with a 39.8% usage rate but hasn’t reached 30 minutes in a game yet because Chicago has also been getting blown out left and right. Again, this game figures to be much more competitive and fast-paced games are great for a player like LaVine, who averaged 4.5 transition points per game last season, while shooting around 62% from the field when out on the break. The Warriors allowed a healthy 1.14 points per possession in transition last year (9th-most) and their defense looks really bad through two games here in 2020. He has a massive ceiling in tournaments in this spot.
As for the rest of Chicago, Wendell Carter is in a strong spot, but he’s struggled through two games, shooting just 4-for-15 from the field. At $5,000 on DK, he is cheap enough to continue taking a shot on, as he still offers rebounding and shot-blocking potential.
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
BOS -2; total: 221
I’ve played Domantas Sabonis in both games this season and I’ll do it again Sunday night. At $8,400 on DraftKings, he is much too cheap and is coming off a terrific triple-double Saturday, scoring 22 points with 10 boards and 11 assists. After ranking inside of the top-seven in both touches (88.0) and rebounding chances (20.4) last year, Sabonis is inside the top-seven once again in 2020, giving him a great combination of floor and ceiling. The Celtics interior defense, despite now starting both Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis, can still be had, while Sabonis offers so many peripherals. Regardless of what his stat line Saturday night would have looked like, this is a misprice for one of the best players in fantasy basketball. Malcolm Brogdon’s price, meanwhile, has come up, though he remains such a high-floor option.
With Gordon Hayward gone and Kemba Walker still sidelined, the Celtics are clearly missing players who can make plays with the ball in their hand. As a result, Jaylen Brown leads the team with a healthy 36.1% usage rate, a top-10 mark in the league, while Jayson Tatum is right behind him at 33.9%. Marcus Smart, Theis and Thompson are all low-usage players joining Brown and Tatum in the starting five, guaranteeing the two young stars with plenty of touches and shot attempts. In fact, through the first two games, Brown has attempted 25 and 24 shots, while Tatum has attempted 50 total. Sheesh. Tatum is also averaging 84.5 touches per game through two games, a number that was 68.1 a season ago. With the amount of offensive responsibility Brown and Tatum have right now, both are viable GPP plays on every slate, despite this being a tougher matchup with the Pacers.
If I’m rostering any other member of the Celtics, it’ll probably be Jeff Teague, though I’ll be doing it reluctantly. After a strong game Wednesday night, Teague was the opposite on Christmas Day, failing to score in 21 minutes. He is still coming off the bench but has plenty of usage with Walker out and his price is still cheap enough that he could fit comfortably into some of your lineups.
Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings
PHO -3.5; total: 226.5
Deandre Ayton is off to a bit of a slow start this season, though his poor outing in the opening game was due to foul trouble. He nearly double-doubled Saturday night, but I have GPP interest in him again here. The Kings allowed the second-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll last season at 1.21, as well as the third-highest field goal percentage off the play type (57.3%). That is important for Ayton, as the Suns are using him a lot more in the pick-and-roll this season alongside Chris Paul. That means the two correlate fairly well and are viable as a stack in DFS lineups, though just make sure the veteran Paul doesn’t get the day off after playing Saturday night, too. Devin Booker, meanwhile, has as much upside as anyone on this slate but it is tough for me to pay nearly $10,000 for him right now. His usage rate is still over 30% with Paul but his ball-handling duties and assist potential have dropped, as he’s playing more off the ball this season.
De'Aaron Fox has scored 20-plus points in both games to open the season and is priced fairly at $8,100 on DraftKings. He faces the same Suns team Sunday that he just got for 24 points, four rebounds and seven assists and I view him as a very strong play once again. In 2019, Phoenix allowed a 41.8% field goal percentage on short mid-range shots, which are essentially field goal attempts from around the free throw line. That was the fifth-highest rate in the NBA. Look for Fox to try to do his damage from that part of the floor, as around 30% of his shots from a season ago came from the free throw line distance. I also really, really like this spot for Buddy Hield, who is a more trustworthy fantasy option now that Bogdan Bogdanovic is in Atlanta. Last year, the two would often split minutes and if Hield got off to a slow start, Bogdan would take his playing time. Hield wasn’t great Saturday night but he’s now attempted 29 field goals in two games and gets a rematch with a Suns team that coughed up the fourth-most points per game off screens last year (6.0), as well as the fifth-most points per possession off the play type (1.05). Hield, meanwhile, ranked sixth in points per game off screens last season (3.1) and it also helps that the Suns rank 26th against the scorer trait, per our advanced DVP. I will be going back to the well Sunday night.
Finally, in tournaments or game stacks, I like taking a shot on Marvin Bagley. Again, only in GPPs, as his minutes are tough to trust. He logged 27 minutes in the opener before fouling out, but his minutes dropped to 20 Saturday night. However, he still double-doubled (13-11) and is such a high usage player. Phoenix doesn’t have a power forward that can match him and if he can get back to that 25- to 28-minute range, he could have a very nice game.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -11; total: 225.5
Keep an eye on Karl-Anthony Towns, as the All-Star center left Saturday night’s game with a wrist injury. He did return to the game and it doesn’t seem serious, but obviously it’s worth make sure he’s fine. Still, I’m not crazy about Minnesota in this spot against a very capable Lakers defense, though KAT is priced fairly and likely won’t be as popular as he normally is.
The Lakers, meanwhile, are all at really, really nice price tags. Anthony Davis is just $10,200 on DraftKings, while both Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell are $6,100. Harrell is coming off the bench but is playing starter’s minutes, logging over 30 in both of his first two games with the Lakers. Schroder, meanwhile, is starting and producing. The Lakers play Portland Monday night, so it is entirely possible that Frank Vogel decides to rest one of LeBron James or Davis, both of whom have been a bit banged up to begin the season. Vogel already said he wanted to keep James around the 32-minute mark to start the regular season and while LeBron is always in play, it is worth noting that Schroder starting definitely takes a lot more usage and touches away from him compared to last year.
