Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The workweek kicks off with a nine-game NBA DFS slate on Monday that has both a handful of injuries already reported and a handful that we are still waiting on. Given the nature of late-season NBA DFS, it’s pivotal to keep up with as much news throughout the day as possible, as the injury report has the potential to balloon as the day goes on.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. If totals are not posted at the time of writing (sometimes the night prior to slate), they will be marked “n/a”.
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Cavaliers at Pistons preview
CLE -3, total: 213
The first injury report of the evening is a good one, as Jerami Grant, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Cory Joseph, and Mason Plumlee have all been ruled out for the Pistons. Obviously, there will be a plethora of value from the Detroit side, but it’s figuring out who the worthwhile options are that’s important.
The best starting point is Isaiah Stewart, despite his elevated price. Over his last pair of games, he’s averaged 17.0 points, 16.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 28.0 minutes per game. If the playing time continues, the ceiling will continue to be astronomical, making him one of the best per-dollar players on the slate. These absences also thrust Hamidou Diallo ($4,200), Saddiq Bey ($5,300), Josh Jackson ($5,100) and Saben Lee ($3,500) into the conversation. Of the four, I prefer Bey and Jackson the most given the security in their playing time and likely spots within the starting lineup. I want to make a point to get one of these two in every lineup.
For the Cavs, both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are viable options at their respective prices, especially if this game is expected to stay close. Sexton may be the more reliable asset, but Garland is an elite pivot who saves you a couple hundred dollars. Jarrett Allen is also an intriguing option given his per-minute production against a depleted frontcourt. If stacking three or four Pistons, it makes sense to run it back with one of these three.
Bulls at Celtics preview
BOS -6, total: 221.5
The Bulls will continue to play without Zach LaVine as he works through the COVID protocols, which should result in Coby White receiving his third consecutive start. Over his two starts since LaVine went down, he’s averaged 17.5 points, 8.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds in 33.1 minutes per game. His price is high enough on DraftKings where he isn’t a must, but he’s still far too cheap at $4,700 on FanDuel.
Nikola Vucevic is the only other Bulls player who I have interest in on the nine-game slate, having averaged 24.5 points, 10.5 boards, and 5.5 assists over the last two without LaVine, sporting a 28.7% usage rate, 28.2% assist rate and 16.9% rebounding rate over that span.
I’ve hit on it before, but the Bulls defense without LaVine does not improve, making them an even better matchup to attack. With Jaylen Brown questionable once again with an illness, we could see another massive game after posting over 60 DraftKings points in Brown’s latest absence. Marcus Smart (1.11 DKP/min) and Kemba Walker (1.18 DKP/min) both performed well enough without Brown last game as well and understanding that there’s a higher ceiling than they demonstrated makes them great plays once again if he sits out. Tristan Thompson is also viable as long as Robert Williams remains out, as he’s cheap enough even when you factor in the floor we saw last game.
Warriors at Sixers preview
PHI -9, total: 226
While Stephen Curry sustained an ankle injury on Saturday, early signs point to it being nothing to worry about in regards to his status for Monday. If that becomes the case, it’ll be hard to ignore him up top, having posted at least 63 DraftKings points in three of his last four games while making at least 10 threes in all of those three contests. In the surprise scenario of him being inactive, Jordan Poole would become a viable value at $4,500, though not one I would prefer over the Pistons options given the defense of the Sixers.
Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green continue to be the ancillary pieces I want to target, but Green has more appeal with Curry active than inactive. Wiggins, on the other hand, would see a massive uptick in volume if Curry sat, though that would likely be accompanied by a heap of Ben Simmons defense.
This is an extremely exploitable matchup for Philadelphia, though my interest really lies with Joel Embiid and only Joel Embiid. He’s rounded into form over his last four games, averaging 34.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.0 stocks (steals plus blocks) in 30.4 minutes per game and should be able to score and rebound at will against this under-sized Warriors frontcourt. Of the two studs in this game, he is my preference. I get the appeal of Ben Simmons here, as the Warriors run one of the faster paces in the league with Curry active, but he hasn’t shown a slate-breaking ceiling much at all lately, making him nothing more than a “fine” play at $7,800. If Tobias Harris and Seth Curry are out, we can look to Furkan Korkmaz for salary relief again, but his $4,800 price tag is the absolute most I would be willing to spend on him.
Thunder at Wizards preview
WAS -10.5, total: 230
While the Thunder are already set to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford, the second leg of the back-to-back could result in absences for more rotation players, as it wouldn’t be the first time that this has happened with them this season.
Since we don’t have that news yet, we will approach as if everyone that’s currently expected to be active, is. Against a porous Washington defense, we can look right to Luguentz Dort, yes, even at $7,000. He’s attempted 66 total shots over his last three games and has been absolutely scorching from three, making this a spot to grab him while he’s hot. Darius Bazley and Alexsei Pokusevski are the others who garner interest given their playing time relative to their salaries. Between the two, Bazley is the more enticing option after posting 16 points, eight rebounds and a block in 33 minutes on Sunday. Moses Brown makes sense in tournaments given his sheer upside, but his inconsistencies over the last couple of weeks make him far too risky for cash and single-entry formats.
For the Wizards, I will continue to go back to Russell Westbrook as the top overall play on the slate until he fails me. His floor is 45-50 DraftKings points right now with a legitimate ceiling of over 80. $11,000 is arguably $1,000 too cheap considering the stretch he’s put together (eight triple-doubles over his last 10 games), making him my top overall play of the slate. If fading Westbrook, Bradley Beal makes sense at a depressed price, especially at $8,500 on FanDuel. Unless one of these two rests, I won’t be putting my trust in the ancillary pieces on a full 10-game slate like I would on a slate half the size.
Rockets at Heat preview
MIA -9.5, total: 217
John Wall should make a return on Monday after sitting out on Sunday for rest, but even so, the Rockets are 10-point dogs against the Heat. Given the difficulty of the matchup, I have a hard time targeting anyone on the Rockets. If pressing to target any of them, Wall would be my pick.
For the Heat, however, this is a beautiful matchup despite being on the second leg of a back-to-back for them as well. If Jimmy Butler is forced to miss his second consecutive game, this would thrust Goran Dragic into consideration as one of the best value plays on the slate at $4,800. He posted 41 DK points in the same scenario on Sunday and comes into this game facing a similarly exploitable matchup. Both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro would, of course, be viable as well, but I would rather get my Heat exposure by saving salary given the high chance of a blowout in this game and the potential of ceilings being capped for the more expensive pieces. The same can be said for Butler if he’s active.
Spurs at Pacers preview
SAS -1, total: 232
After seeing a plethora of Spurs players rest in their last game, they come into this game with a clean injury report, giving us the chance to approach them as normal. Normally on full slates, there are only three Spurs who made their way into my player pool — DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Between those three, Murray is my favorite at only $7,300 given his upside on both sides of the ball. Poeltl has flashed his potential lately, but the return of Myles Turner on the other side of the game worries me in terms of his offensive upside a bit. The rest of the Spurs’ rotation is a literal crapshoot, making it unwise to target them on a 10-game slate.
The Pacers come in with a relatively clean injury report as well, minus the ambiguity of the status of Doug McDermott and the extended absence of T.J. Warren. Given that both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis rank in the top 20 in the NBA in touches per game, they’re one of my favorite duos to pair in tournaments slate-in and slate-out, especially given how well they correlate. They’re also both viable individual plays. Sabonis, in particular, feels far too cheap at $8,700 on FanDuel.
If looking to pivot off of those two, Caris LeVert has flashed a nice ceiling over 50 DraftKings points lately, but it’s hard for me to pull the trigger on him in single-entry formats given his price on a 10-game slate. Outside of those three, I have a hard time getting to any other Pacers given how deep their rotation is and how much usage the main three taken up.
Suns at Bucks preview
MIL -3, total: 233.5
While this game is one that should garner a ton of interest from the standpoint of a fan, the presence of two great defensive units has me a bit worried in terms of DFS.
You can never write Giannis Antetokoumpo off of a slate, especially when you factor in his last game against the Suns this season (47/11/5). In a competitive game environment with a tight spread, he’s one of the top overall plays on the slate and shouldn’t come with an overwhelming amount of ownership. Given the matchup, I don’t feel the need to hedge my lineups without Giannis with either Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday, but if playing one, Middleton is my lean.
Brook Lopez is only $5,000 and given the putrid defense of Deandre Ayton, he certainly has a ceiling. He’s posted at least 37 DK points in two of his last three games, making him a viable tournament option.
If looking for Suns exposure, my default would be Devin Booker given the Bucks’ defensive struggle with three-point shooters. With Chris Paul tied up with Jrue Holiday and Deandre Ayton likely running into Lopez and Giannis a lot in the post, Booker could find himself getting even more looks than usual. For that same reason, I do have interest in Jae Crowder, as this same Bucks team really struggled to defend him behind the arc in last season’s playoff series against the Heat.
Grizzlies at Nuggets preview
DEN -6.5, total: 227
The Grizzlies come into this game short-handed, as Jonas Valanciunas has been ruled out with a concussion, while the trio of Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks and DeAnthony Melton all remain questionable with Jaren Jackson Jr. listed as doubtful. With so many injuries on the wing and in the frontcourt, there is certainly some value to attack here.
Xavier Tillman is my starting point, as he should likely draw the start for Valanciunas and no longer has to compete with Gorgui Dieng for minutes. If Clarke sits out, that’s only more incentive to load up on Tillman at $3,400, who also offers power forward and center eligibility on DraftKings. Kyle Anderson is my second option here. $6,200 isn’t necessarily a massive value, but he’s demonstrated the ability to 6x on this price tag with relative ease, making him one of my favorite mid-tier targets on the slate. If Brooks and Melton sit out, it’ll be hard not to love both Grayson Allen and Desmond Bane. Allen is easily playing some of the best basketball of his career, scoring over 20 points in two of his last three games while seeing at least 32 minutes in three of his last four.
Ja Morant is obviously viable here, but at his price, there are simply other options that come with more stable floors and higher ceilings that I have an interest in. If Brooks is out, however, I would have more interest in Morant as that would force more volume his way.
The Nuggets are down two of their three point guards on the other side of this game, which means it’s Facundo Campazzo time. While we all pray that FTN’s own Kawhisenberg keeps his pants on throughout the entirety of this game, Campazzo is an elite option at $4,700. While Will Barton and PJ Dozier should see an uptick in ball-handling duties, Campazzo is staring at 30+ minutes and should be able to produce enough to pay off his price tag. The latter two players are also viable, with Barton being the obvious safe choice.
Both Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. are elite options here as well. Over the last week, Jokic has averaged 1.75 DKP/min without Murray, with a 42% assist rate and 22.6% rebounding rate. If looking to get different with your spend-up, he’s the best option. Porter Jr. has also posted 1.14 DKP/min over that span and is finally seeing 30+ minutes with regularity, giving him immense tournament upside.
Jazz at Lakers preview
UTA -6, total: 214.5
The night-cap is a bit less enticing on Monday given the low total and absence of the superstars, but this should still provide some value to take advantage of.
With Donovan Mitchell out, Mike Conley should see a massive uptick in touches, having posted a 23.6% usage rate, 32.2% assist rate, and 1.13 DKP/min with Mitchell off of the court this season. Jordan Clarkson sees a team-high 31.3% usage rate in this scenario, making both of them elite plays with Conley being the cash-game preference. If the injury report takes a turn for the worst and Conley is ruled out (currently probable), Clarkson and Joe Ingles become two core plays on the slate.
Rudy Gobert is a viable center option and should definitely pick up a few additional shots, but the absence of Mitchell is a bit more incremental for Gobert than it is for the wings or backcourt players here.
For the Lakers, I still have little interest in targeting this team, especially in a difficult matchup. If you think Andre Drummond sees another 30 minutes, then he makes for an elite tournament option at only $7,100 and frankly, that seems like a likely scenario given the matchup with a traditional center in Gobert.
Outside of Drummond, you can get away with Dennis Schroder and Kyle Kuzma in tournaments, but their floors are still low and the inconsistencies make them difficult to trust. If choosing between the two, Schroder is my lean.
