Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There are six total games across the NBA Saturday, with five of them being on the NBA DFS main slate, which will be the focus of this article.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Pistons at Wizards preview
WAS -5, total: 228.5
It’s always odd to consider the highest-priced player on the slate underpriced, but at $10,900, Russell Westbrook certainly is exactly that. Even after posting 60 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games and at least 68 in three consecutive games, DraftKings decided to lower his price $100. At $10,900, I don’t care what the matchup is given his recent form, so a matchup with the Pistons only helps his case. He’s easily the top option on the slate.
With it being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Wizards, there is an outside shot that either he or Bradley Beal sits out. As long as Westbrook is active, he’s the top play on the slate. If he is out, Beal immediately becomes an elite play at a rather affordable price, as he’s posted a 40.6% usage rate with Westbrook off the court this season. The rest of the Wizards pieces are easy to fade unless a star is out. If so, we can look to Rui Hachimura, who would soak up a lot of the vacated volume, and Davis Bertans (assuming he returns from his personal leave that held him out Friday).
The Pistons also find themselves on the second leg of a back-to-back and should see Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee return from resting. If they do, both are elite options against a porous defense. If Plumlee remains out, we can go right back to the well with Isaiah Stewart, who posted 16 points and 21 rebounds in a spot-start on Friday. If Grant sits, we can go back to Josh Jackson and Saddiq Bey on the wings.
While I expect both of them back, there’s still a chance that Cory Joseph sits out, as he was bothered by an ankle issue, while both Dennis Smith and Hamidou Diallo could miss again with knee issues. If this becomes the case, Saben Lee, Frank Jackson and Killian Hayes would be the only healthy guards. While it’s still a bit of a rotating door, Hayes would be the ideal target, as he’s getting 25-plus minutes and priced at only $3,400. Because he’s returning from a lengthy absence, however, there’s the potential for him to sit on the back-to-back as well, which would open the door for both Lee and Jackson to be elite value options in a plus matchup.
Cavaliers at Bulls preview
CHI -1.5, total: 213
The Bulls played their first game without Zach LaVine — who is going through the health and safety protocols — Friday and while they didn’t come away with a win, there are a couple of players worth targeting in terms of DFS.
With Tomas Satoransky also out, Coby White rejoined the starting lineup and posted 27 points, seven assists and five rebounds with a 26.8% usage rate. Regardless of whether Satoransky plays Saturday or not, White is an elite value option and a borderline lock on FanDuel in single-entry formats given his $4,500 price tag. Nikola Vucevic was also a massive beneficiary of LaVine’s absence, sporting a 38.9% usage rate, 30.0% rebounding rate, and 21.2% assist rate en route to a 24-point, 14-rebound double-double. At $9,800, he’s an elite center play with the understanding that we should continue to see the rates that we became accustomed to in Orlando.
Outside of those two, it’s hard to call any Bulls players elite plays, but Thaddeus Young would be the next closest after posting a 33.5% usage rate and 1.36 DKP/min in 22 minutes on Friday. He’s best suited for tournaments given his lack of secure minutes, but the efficiency is rock-solid. Garrett Temple is also still worth consideration given his $3,000 price tag and 25 minutes that he saw Friday.
For the Cavs, we can continue to look to Collin Sexton as a reliable scoring threat and Darius Garland as a cheaper pivot here against an exploitable backcourt. Kevin Love is also worth a look, as he should be back to a normal workload after seeing only 22 minutes on the second leg of the Cavs back-to-back on Thursday. For $6,500, he offers a nice upside against the Bulls.
Jarrett Allen is the only other Cavs’ player worth mentioning strictly as an upside play, though I far prefer Vucevic on the other side of this game. If looking into the $7,000-range at center, however, it’s hard to argue that any of them carry a higher ceiling than Allen.
Warriors at Celtics preview
BOS -5, total: 227.5
The Celtics come into this game as favorites after their win Thursday night against the Lakers and should once again be without Robert Williams and Evan Fournier. In Williams’ absence, Tristan Thompson stepped into the starting lineup and logged 25 minutes, posting 14 points, six rebounds and five assists. He was well on his way to more playing time too, but the game got out of hand early in the fourth quarter and prevented him from getting another rotation. With a similar workload expected again Saturday, he’s going to be one of the centers that I have the most interest in from a per-dollar perspective.
If looking elsewhere on the Celtics, I will continue to default to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, with my lean being Brown as he continues to come with a significant discount. His strength in the transition game should work wonders against a defense that runs a quick pace, making him an elite play in all formats. Kemba Walker is also worth consideration, having posted a 21.8% usage rate and 29.1% assist rate over the last two weeks.
For the Warriors, there is a chance that they will be getting Kelly Oubre back after a four-game absence, but either way, I would not have a ton of interest there. All this would do is knock the value of Kent Bazemore and Juan Toscano-Anderson, the latter of which is an interesting punt if Oubre remains out. If I am going anywhere here, it will continue to be the combination of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry is an elite pivot off a chalkier Westbrook, having posted 1.66 DKP/min over his last two weeks. Green is always a viable mini-stack and should be considered an elite play in himself, as he’s seen significant production boosts with James Wiseman out.
If you think Curry has a down game with Marcus Smart smothering him, Andrew Wiggins would make sense as the one to benefit the most. Plus, he typically comes in as the lowest owned of the aforementioned trio of Warriors.
Grizzlies at Bucks preview
MIL -8.5, total: 237
On a five-game slate, this is the only game with a total of over 230, making it important to try and get at least one piece. With Giannis Antetokounmpo back in action, he should rival Westbrook for the top-play spot, but I simply have more faith in Westbrook, even at elevated ownership. Giannis is still only one game removed from a lengthy absence and while he should still get a ton of minutes in this game if it stays close, he’s best suited for GPPs until we see him round back into form.
Both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are viable, but their prices have gotten to a point where they’re hard to fully endorse in a single-entry lineup with Giannis back. Middleton, however, is a viable option at small forward on FanDuel given the lack of depth at the position and the slight discount you get ($7,800) compared to his price on DraftKings ($8,400). If you think this game blows out, it makes sense to consider Bobby Portis, even at his elevated price. Pat Connaughton would be my route to value here, as he should continue to see around 25 minutes per game with Donte DiVincenzo out with a sprained toe. While he doesn’t have a massive amount of upside, he provides enough at a cheap price if you simply want inexpensive exposure to this game.
The Grizzlies are a fine team to target here, though the matchup with the Bucks is exponentially more difficult with Giannis active. Regardless, I like the idea of a Jonas Valanciunas bounceback here. Unless the Bucks run a lot of Giannis at the five, he should see a full allotment of minutes given the size of Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, while also having heightened potential for blocks given how much the Bucks big three drives to the rim. He had a down game Friday but still managed to squeak out over 32 DraftKings points. If that’s a floor at his price, I feel quite good about using him.
Ja Morant is still viable here, but I struggle to target guards against Jrue Holiday, making him a large-field tournament option for me at best. Dillon Brooks is the other piece I have interest in here and while it feels a bit chasey after his 32-point outburst Friday, it makes sense given the matchup, as the Bucks give up some of the most production in the league from beyond the arc, an area where Brooks can excel if given the chance.
Spurs at Suns preview
PHO -9, total: 228.5
Just like any other slate this season, I have very little interest in targeting offenses against the Suns. That puts the Spurs at the bottom of my list among the teams on the slate, which makes sense when also considering how frustrating Gregg Popovich’s rotations have been this season.
If pressing for Spurs exposure, I would start with the duo of Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan. Not only do they carry the highest ceilings on the team, but Murray in particular is way too cheap at only $7,100. He’s seen at least 32 minutes in four of his last five games and is fresh off of a 13/11/10 triple-double, proving he doesn’t need a massive scoring output to get you there. This should instill confidence going into a matchup with Chris Paul. Jakob Poeltl also makes a bit of sense, as he should see a full allotment of minutes in a matchup with a traditional center and has some additional upside on the offensive end given Deandre Ayton’s struggles defensively.
For the Suns, I will continue to target Paul in cash games, as he comes with one of the most stable floors in the entire league. In tournaments, I am fine getting to either Devin Booker or Ayton, though would avoid the pairing as they have proven to negatively correlate this season. Between the two, my lean is Ayton given the discount and his recent form. Over his last seven games, he’s averaged 20.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.7 stocks and 1.0 assists per game. He’s a steal at $6,800.
