NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/21)

The NBA regular season is winding down, but we still have a handful of strong slates left, starting with Monday’s nine games. As it stands, there isn’t a ton of value on this slate, but be sure to keep tabs on the news throughout the day.

Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 21 | NBA DFS First Look

New Orleans Pelicans @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -6, total: 233.5
Pace: NOP (22nd), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Ingram remains out for the Pelicans, while Devonte’ Graham (hip) is listed as questionable.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -5.5, total: 227
Pace: LAL (4th), CLE (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is once again listed as questionable for Los Angeles.
• Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade remain out for Cleveland.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons

DET -7.5, total: 222.5
Pace: POR (17th), DET (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anfernee Simons could return for this game, but he could also miss the rest of the season.
• Jerami Grant has been ruled out for the Pistons. Meanwhile, Hamidou Diallo is also out, while Kelly Olynyk and Cory Joseph are listed as questionable.

Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets

UTA -1.5, total: 232.5
Pace: UTA (19th), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Mike Conley sat out on Sunday, but I expect him to be active on Monday. Bojan Bogdanovic (calf) has missed the last four games for Utah.
• LaMarcus Aldridge will remain sidelined, while Kyrie Irving won’t play with Brooklyn at home.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers

MIA -1.5, total: 215.5
Pace: MIA (25th), PHI (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler (ankle) is listed as questionable for Miami. Gabe Vincent has been ruled out.
• This is the second end of a back-to-back for Philadelphia. Keep an eye on Joel Embiid and James Harden.

Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -3.5, total: 223.5
Pace: TOR (27th), CHI (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet rested on Sunday and should be back in the lineup on Monday. Malachi Flynn and OG Anunoby remain out for Toronto.

Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets

WAS -5, total: 233.5
Pace: WAS (20th), HOU (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Kuzma is expected to play in this game for Washington. 
• Eric Gordon (illness) has missed the last few games. He’ll likely be listed as questionable for Monday.

Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder

BOS -14.5, total: 215.5
Pace: BOS (26th), OKC (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable for Oklahoma City, while Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort and Ty Jerome remain out. 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -3.5, total: 229.5
Pace: MIN (1st), DAL (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Karl-Anthony Towns (forearm) is listed as questionable for Minnesota, while Jaden McDaniels is out with a high ankle sprain.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Darius Garland vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Garland has been playing terrific basketball all year long but especially as of late. The all-star point guard is averaging 24 points, 10.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 46.2 fantasy points per game over his last six contests, while recording double-digit assists in seven of his last 10 games. Now he gets an awesome matchup with the lowly Lakers, who are coughing up the most points (24.75) and sixth-most assists per game (9.0) to opposing point guards on the season. Los Angeles is allowing the seventh-worst field-goal percentage at the rim (66.2%) and really miss Anthony Davis in the middle. That could help Garland, who is averaging 17.2 drives per game this year, good for the eighth-most in basketball. Garland’s floor and ceiling combination is so appealing, as he ranks eighth in the league in touches per game (85.2), fourth in time of possession per game (7.7 minutes) and sixth in potential assists per game (15.6). Look for him to stay productive against a Los Angeles team that has been decimated by opposing point guards all year long.

Kristaps Porzingis vs. Houston Rockets

Porzingis hasn’t logged massive minutes since making his Washington debut, but they might be on the horizon. He’s been under 30 minutes in each of his last two games, but foul trouble played a factor in both contests, especially last game when he picked up three fouls during the third quarter. That led to him sitting on the bench from the six-minute mark of the third quarter until the eight-minute mark of the fourth quarter. There is plenty of potential here on Monday, while the usage has been strong. In fact, over the last two weeks, Porzingis is sporting a healthy 30.4% usage rate, while averaging 1.37 fantasy points per minute during that span. He faces a Rockets team that allows the most real points per game to opposing centers this season (26.9), while also coughing up the second-most points per game to the post (6.4).

Saddiq Bey vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Bey has put together consecutive stellar outings, of course highlighted by his career-best 51-point performance against the Magic. He’s been one of the most underrated players in basketball for most of the season and is in a tremendous spot today against an awful Portland team. And with Detroit missing Jerami Grant and potentially more players for this game, Bey should see more usage. Bey’s usage rate climbs by 1.1% with Grant off the floor this season, and he averages a fantasy point per minute in the split. He is also averaging a healthy 5.4 spot-up points per game over the course of the season, a top-20 number in basketball. That bodes well for him in this matchup, as Portland is allowing the second-most spot-up points per game (31.3) and second-worst field-goal percentage (40.9%) off the play type.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Kris Dunn vs. DET- Dunn has been playing a large role for the depleted Trail Blazers. Over his last three games, he has logged 24, 26 and 28 minutes, scoring 26.2, 24.5 and 31.2 fantasy points during that span. Assuming Portland is once again without Anfernee Simons and Eric Bledsoe, Dunn will project as one of the top value plays of the slate.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings Optimal Lineup

Jordan Poole (38.75)
Davion Mitchell (46.75)
Otto Porter (43)
Danilo Gallinari (39.25)
Isaiah Roby (39)
Donovan Mitchell (59)
Wendell Carter Jr. (58.5)
Jonas Valanciunas (50)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Davion Mitchell (43.1)
Jordan Clarkson (38.2)
Devin Booker (46.9)
Donovan Mitchell (54.6)
Otto Porter (40.7)
Danilo Gallinari (37.5)
Domantas Sabonis (45.4)
Wendell Carter Jr. (55.2)
Jonas Valanciunas (47.4)