NBA DFS Preview – First Look (2/25)

After seeing the NBA return with a strong seven-game DFS slate Thursday, we have a nine-game slate Friday. This slate is absolutely loaded and while a handful of players are out of the lineup, we also have the return (and debuts) of some star players.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for February 25 | NBA DFS First Look

Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets

TOR -2.5, total: 226
Pace: TOR (23rd), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet is listed as questionable for Toronto.
• For Charlotte, Gordon Hayward will remain sidelined, while Cody Martin is listed as questionable.

San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards

SAS -3, total: 223.5
Pace: SAS (3rd), WAS (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Kristaps Porzingis (knee) still won’t make his Washington debut Friday. Meanwhile, Thomas Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers

IND -7, total: 221
Pace: OKC (18th), IND (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malcolm Brogdon and Isaiah Jackson are listed as probable for Indiana, while Chris Duarte is questionable.
• Luguentz Dort sat out Thursday’s game with a shoulder injury. We’ll see if he can return for Friday’s game.

Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic

ORL -4, total: 232.5
Pace: HOU (1st), ORL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

MIA -5.5, total: 211
Pace: MIA (28th), NYK (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kemba Walker will be out of New York’s rotation for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett was a full participant at practice and is listed as questionable (ankle). 
• Derrick Rose is listed as doubtful. 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

PHI -3, total: 228.5
Pace: PHI (27th), MIN (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• James Harden will make his 76ers debut Friday. 

Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz

UTA -5.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DAL (30th), UTA (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Reggie Bullock is listed as questionable with a hip injury.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -7, total: 227.5
Pace: NOP (20th), PHX (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker started at point guard in Phoenix’s first game without Chris Paul Thursday. Cameron Johnson entered the starting lineup.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -1.5, total: 221.5
Pace: LAC (11th), LAL (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Davis will miss the next four weeks or so with an ankle injury. Carmelo Anthony (hamstring) is listed as probable.
• Norman Powell is without a timetable for a return.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

LeBron James vs. Los Angeles Clippers

James is listed as questionable, but after logging 36 minutes in the All-Star game, I fully expect him to play, especially with Anthony Davis sidelined for the next four weeks. With Davis off the floor over the course of the season, LeBron is sporting a 32.8% usage rate to go along with a 22% rebounding rate and 17% assist rate. James is also averaging a gaudy 1.55 fantasy points per minute in the split and when Davis was out of the lineup earlier in the year, we saw James play a lot more center, which made him an even better fantasy producer. In games Davis has been inactive this season, James is averaging just over 58 DraftKings points and 58.2 FanDuel points per game. His rebounds per game jump from 7.9 to 8.9, while also averaging about 3.6 more points per contest with Davis out of the lineup.

Jakob Poeltl vs. Washington Wizards

The last time Poeltl had a matchup against a team that struggles against centers, he went off for over 50 fantasy points against the Thunder. I love this spot for him on Friday, facing a weak Washington frontcourt that could also be without Thomas Bryant. The Wizards are coughing up the sixth-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll (8.1), while also allowing the third-most points per possession (1.20) and third-worst field goal percentage (56.3%) off the play type. Poeltl, meanwhile, is averaging 4.5 points per game as the roll man this season, tied for the sixth-most in all of basketball, while also shooting 62% off the play type and averaging 1.16 points per possession.

Cole Anthony vs. Houston Rockets

Anthony has definitely been a bit up-and-down when Jalen Suggs has been in the lineup but there is still a ceiling, especially in this matchup. Anthony leads the Magic in transition points per game (3.9), which bodes very well against a Rockets team that is allowing the most transition points per game this season (24.4). Houston is also coughing up the sixth-highest field goal percentage (54.8%) and highest frequency rate (18.3%) off the play type. And as you can see, the Rockets also rank bottom-10 against both primary ball-handlers and crafty finishers.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Alec Burks vs. MIA — With Derrick Rose doubtful and Kemba Walker no longer part of the rotation (again), Burks will likely start at point guard Friday. Burks is averaging about 0.90 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor this season, which is solid, though nothing special. Still, the minutes should be there as a starter, especially if RJ Barrett can’t return to the lineup just yet.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings Optimal Lineup

D’Angelo Russell, 54.5
Bogdan Bogdanovic, 43.25
Hamidou Diallo, 34.5
Danilo Gallinari, 37.75
Domantas Sabonis, 62.5
Will Barton, 44.25
Cameron Johnson, 37.0
Devin Booker, 61.25

FanDuel Optimal Lineup

Cade Cunningham, 38.4
D’Angelo Russell, 51.9
Will Barton, 42.5
Devin Booker, 63.0
Cameron Johnson, 35.3
Jae Crowder, 40.0
Domantas Sabonis, 59.3
Jaren Jackson, 49.7
Clint Capela, 40.4