NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/28)

Per usual, analyzing an NBA DFS slate is very, very stressful this time of the year. Be sure to pay attention to news throughout the day, while also pairing all of the content at FTN with the amazing NBA Optimizer.

Let’s take an early look at Tuesday’s eight-game slate. 

NBA Vegas Data for December 28 | NBA DFS First Look

Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic

MIL -12.5, total: 214.5
Pace: MIL (5th), ORL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Cole Anthony aggravated his ankle injury and will miss his second straight game for the Magic. Meanwhile, Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, Terrence Ross and Mychal Mulder remain in the health and safety protocols.
• Outside of Brook Lopez (back), Milwaukee is finally healthy.

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

MIA -6.5, total: 208.5
Pace: WAS (24th), MIA (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Montrezl Harrell and Aaron Holiday have been placed in the league’s health and safety protocols, while Bradley Beal is questionable to return.
• For Miami, Kyle Lowry is now in the health and safety protocols, while center Dewayne Dedmon is out 1-2 weeks with an MCL sprain. Jimmy Butler, however, is back in the lineup.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors

PHI -6.5, total: 211
Pace: PHI (29th), TOR (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• The entire Toronto team is still depleted, though a few players could finally return Tuesday. Keep an eye on this team throughout the day.
• For Philadelphia, Andre Drummond, Shake Milton and Danny Green remain in the health and safety protocols.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets

LAL -5, total: 228.5
Pace: LAL (1st), HOU (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Rockets played the front end of a back-to-back Monday, and although Kevin Porter and Jalen Green were active, they did not play. Look for both players to play in some capacity Tuesday.
• Both Jae’Sean Tate and Garrison Mathews have entered the health and safety protocols.

New York Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NYK -5, total: 212
Pace: NYK (25th), MIN (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Naz Reid and Jarred Vanderbilt are in the health and safety protocols for Minnesota. Patrick Beverley cleared protocols but sat out Monday (conditioning).

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans

CLE -6, total: 214.5
Pace: CLE (14th), NOP (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Cedi Osman are in the health and safety protocols for Cleveland, while Isaac Okoro (conditioning) is questionable.
• For New Orleans, Brandon Ingram (Achilles) is listed as doubtful, while Jonas Valanciunas is probable after missing two games with an illness. Finally, Josh Hart is questionable with an ankle sprain.

Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -7, total: 217.5
Pace: DEN (20th), GSW (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green has entered the health and safety protocols, while Jordan Poole will remain sidelined for the Warriors.
• Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -5.5, total: 219.5
Pace: OKC (9th), SAC (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Davion Mitchell will miss his sixth consecutive game for the Kings.
• Darius Bazley, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski were placed in the health and safety protocols for the Thunder.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

The Houston Rockets are allowing 23.0 transition points per game this season

That is the highest number in the NBA, and it is nothing new for the Rockets, who allowed the most transition points in basketball last season, too. This game between the Lakers and Rockets features two top-five teams in terms of pace and the matchup is fantastic for both LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging more transition points per game this season than James (7.0), while LeBron is shooting an absurd 67.8% from the field off the play type. Westbrook, meanwhile, is averaging a healthy 4.2 transition points per game, while sporting a 20% frequency rate in transition.

Devonte’ Graham sees a 3.6% bump in usage with Brandon Ingram and Nickeil Alexander-Walker off the floor

Ingram is listed as doubtful with an Achilles injury, while Alexander-Walker remains in the health and safety protocols. The ball should be in Graham’s hands a lot more Tuesday, especially if Josh Hart, who is questionable with an ankle injury, also sits. With both Ingram and Alexander-Walker off the floor this season, Graham is sporting a healthy 24.7% usage rate and 24% assist rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. 

Omer Yurtseven is sporting a 39% rebounding rate with both Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon off the floor

Yurtseven’s minutes have climbed in the absence of Adebayo and he’s recorded at least 10 rebounds in each of his last five games. However, with Dedmon now sidelined for the next 1-2 weeks, Yurtseven will likely continue to start at center. In Miami’s last game, we saw him post a strong double-double, scoring 16 points to go along with 15 rebounds. He saw a healthy 23 rebounding chances during that game, while converting an impressive 65.2% of those opportunities. And with both Adebayo and Dedmon off the court this season, Yurtseven is flirting with a 40% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute in the split.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

RJ Hampton vs. MIL — Hampton came off the bench last game but still logged 32 minutes, scoring nearly 30 fantasy points. Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs remain out and with both players off the floor, Hampton is sporting a solid 22% usage rate.

Kevon Looney vs. DEN — Looney played 28 minutes against the Suns on Christmas and that was with Draymond Green active. Green will be out and when he’s off the floor this season, Looney is sporting a 25% rebounding rate. Facing Nikola Jokic, Looney could flirt with 30 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Jaylen Nowell (45.5)
Desmond Bane (49.5)
Nassir Little (48.0)
Josh Green (32.5)
Nikola Vucevic (67.75)
Payton Pritchard (46.5)
Kristaps Porzingis (62.25)
James Harden (77.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Jaylen Nowell (42.7)
Payton Pritchard (43.6)
Romeo Langford (35.1)
James Harden (74.1)
Nassir Little (50.0)
DeMar DeRozan (53.0)
Nathan Knight (43.2)
Nikola Vucevic (68.4)
Kristaps Porzingis (64.3)

It isn’t too shocking to see Timberwolves players in the optimal, as their team is just missing so many players right now. Meanwhile, Payton Pritchard was already a strong value play with Jayson Tatum and Dennis Schroder sidelined but once Marcus Smart was ruled out, he became an elite value option and he delivered, scoring 24 points to go along with eight rebounds and six assists.