NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/27)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

We have seven games on Monday’s slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for December 27 | NBA DFS First Look

Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -6.5, total: 236.0
Pace: HOU (4th), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Green and Kevin Porter are listed as questionable for the Rockets. D.J. Augustin and Garrison Mathews have been ruled out.
• Miles Bridges, Cody Martin and P.J. Washington have been ruled out for the Hornets.

Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks

CHI -6, total: 208.5
Pace: CHI (16th), ATL (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, Tony Bradley, Alfonzo McKinnie and Patrick Williams remain out for the Bulls. Derrick Jones has been listed as questionable.
• Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Lou Williams, Solomon Hill, Wes Iwundu, Sharife Cooper and Danilo Gallinari have been ruled out for the Hawks.

Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves

BOS -9, total: 217.0
Pace: BOS (21st), MIN (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Enes Freedom, Justin Jackson, Bruno Fernando and Aaron Nesmith are out for the Celtics. Grant Williams, Josh Richardson and Dennis Schroder are listed as questionable.
• Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Naz Reid are listed as out for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Taurean Prince and Josh Okogie are listed as questionable.

Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs

Jazz -7.5, total: 228.5
Pace: UTA (15th), SAS (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out for the Jazz.
• Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for the Spurs.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns

PHO -8.5, total: 219.5
Pace: MEM (12th), PHO (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, Jarrett Culver and Ziaire Williams have been listed as out for the Grizzlies. Santi Aldama is listed as questionable.
• Frank Kaminsky, Jae Crowder, Elfrid Payton and Dario Saric have been ruled out for the Suns.

Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers

DAL -1, total: 213.0
Pace: DAL (29th), POR (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber, Reggie Bullock and Trey Burke have been ruled out for the Mavs.
• CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Dennis Smith, Robert Covington, Cody Zeller and Ben McLemore have been ruled out for the Blazers. Damian Lillard is listed as questionable.

Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers

BKN -4.5, total: 216.5
Pace: BKN (8th), LAC (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kessler Edwards, Cam Thomas, Joe Harris and David Duke are listed as out for the Nets.
• Paul George, Reggie Jackson and Isaiah Hartenstein are out for the Clippers. Marcus Morris is listed as questionable.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.

Over his last two games, Eric Bledsoe has averaged 18.5 points, 8.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 steals and 36.5 minutes per game.

With Reggie Jackson and Paul George out of the lineup, Bledsoe has stepped up as the priority on offense in just about every facet. Averaging 83.5 touches per game over this span, Bledsoe is firmly in play so long as his price remains as reasonable as it is with Jackson and George out.

In his one game without Donovan Mitchell this season, Mike Conley posted 37.75 DraftKings points with a 21.78% usage rate.

While Conley didn’t light up the scoreboard from a points standpoint, his 13-point, 11-assist double-double was more than enough to get it done, especially considering he saw 7.09 more minutes than his season average (22.29). With Mitchell ruled out against the Spurs, who are missing their best guard defender in Dejounte Murray, Conley is an elite mid-tier target on this slate.

Delon Wright has averaged 77.0 touches per game over his last three games.

With Trae Young out, Wright has assumed the starting point guard role for the Hawks. His production has been somewhat erratic, but he’s averaged more touches per game over this span that each of Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell and Chris Paul. Involvement is not his issue, and for his price, he makes for an ultra-strong cash game option.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Below are some of the top value plays on Monday’s slate on DraftKings, pulled from the LineupEDGE optimizer at the time of writing (with their points per dollar included). For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.

1. Nathan Knight (8.77x)
2. John Konchar (8.12x)
3. Greg Brown (7.9x)
4. Gorgui Dieng (7.24x)
5. Lance Stephenson (7.09x)

For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. James Harden ($11,200)
2. Jayson Tatum ($10,400)
3. Damian Lillard ($10,100) — Questionable
4. Zach LaVine ($9,600)
5. LaMelo Ball ($9,500)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. James Harden ($11,000)
2. Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
3. LaMelo Ball ($9,400)
4. Rudy Gobert ($9,100)
5. Damian Lillard ($9,000) — Questionable

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. James Harden (1x)
2. LaMelo Ball (1.1x)
3. DeMar DeRozan (1.15x)
4. Rudy Gobert (1.15x)
5. Jayson Tatum (1.15x)

With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $150k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday:

• PG: Eric Bledsoe (50.0)
• SG: Desmond Bane (41.5)
• SF: Yuta Watanabe (47.75)
• PF: Chris Boucher (30.75)
• C: Luka Garza (31.0)
• G: Hamidou Diallo (39.75)
• F: Josh Hart (57.0)
• UTIL: Nikola Jokic (73.5)

Total: 371.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $150k Shot ($30k to first) Sunday:

• PG: Tyrese Haliburton (43.5)
• PG: Eric Bledsoe (53.4)
• SG: Desmond Bane (40.8)
• SG: Yuta Watanabe (44.1)
• SF: Caris LeVert (50.3)
• SF: Josh Hart (56.0)
• PF: Chris Boucher (28.0)
• PF: Kevin Love (37.8)
• C: Nikola Jokic (72.4)

Total: 426.3

The Raptors dominated the winning lineups, but it wasn’t the overly chalky Dalano Banton who found himself in most lineups. With Watanabe and Boucher doing their parts relative to their salaries, you didn’t need more than two Raptors to win. Nikola Jokic was the easy top play on the slate despite a heightened roster percentage, being the only player to top 60, let alone 70 fantasy points.