Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have nine games on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 19th | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons
MIA -7, total: 207.5
Pace: MIA (28th), DET (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Markieff Morris, and Caleb Martin remain out for the Heat, while Tyler Herro is listed as questionable.
- Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk remain out for the Pistons.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -4.5, total: 219.5
Pace: POR (17th), MEM (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- CJ McCollum remains out for the Blazers while Dennis Smith Jr. is listed as probable.
- Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Ziaire Williams, and Santi Aldama are out for the Grizzlies.
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings
SAS -4.5, total: 227.0
Pace: SAS (7th), SAC (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Terence Davis, Davion Mitchell, and Alex Len are all out for the Kings. Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -6, total: 213.5
Pace: NOP (21st), PHI (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are questionable for the Sixers. Furkan Korkmaz and Georges Niang are out.
- Zion Williamson remains out for the Pelicans.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -3.5, total: 219.5
Pace: CLE (22nd), ATL (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable for the Hawks. De’Andre Hunter remains out and Trae Young has now entered the league’s health and safety protocols.
- Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley, and Collin Sexton remain out for the Cavs.
Denver Nuggets @ Brooklyn Nets
DEN -7.5, total: 217.5
Pace: DEN (25th), BKN (8th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joe Harris, Day’Ron Sharpe, James Johnson, Paul Millsap, Bruce Brown, and DeAndre’ Bembry remain out for the Nets. Nicolas Claxton and Blake Griffin are listed as questionable.
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, and Bol Bol remain out for the Nuggets. JaMychal Green is listed as questionable.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -5.5, total 214.5
Pace: LAL (1st), CHI (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis, Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn, and Austin Reaves are all out for the Lakers. LeBron James is listed as probable.
- Zach LaVine, Ayo Dosunmu, Troy Brown, and Patrick Williams remain out while Derrick Jones is listed as questionable.
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -3.5, total: 214.0
Pace: DAL (29th), MIN (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic remains out for the Mavericks, as does Reggie Bullock and Josh Green. Sterling Brown is listed as questionable.
- Anthony Edwards remains out for the Timberwolves.
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -7.5, total: 230.5
Pace: CHA (5th), PHO (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devin Booker is listed as questionable for the Suns while Frank Kaminsky remains out.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for December 19th, 2021.
Isaiah Thomas posted a 34.2% usage rate in his first game with the Lakers on Friday.
Playing just under 22 minutes off of the bench in his Lakers debut, Thomas led the team in scoring (19) and usage rate (34.2%) while posting 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. He won’t crack the starting rotation, but his role is surely going to grow as he works himself back into game shape. With the offensive struggles the Lakers are having and their lack of bodies, Thomas should continue to garner a lot of usage and, in turn, produce on the offensive end.
In nearly 38 minutes last game, Tyrese Haliburton posted a 21.3% usage rate, 41.7% assist rate, and 14.0% defensive rebounding rate.
With just about the entire Kings’ backcourt out last game, Haliburton saw significant bumps across the board and made it count, totaling 47.0 DraftKings points on the back of a 21-point, 10-assist double-double. With the same players expected out on Sunday, Haliburton’s sub-$7,000 price tag is a bargain.
Bogdan Bogdanovic sees a +3.2% bump in usage rate and averages 0.65 more fantasy points per minute with Trae Young off of the court this season.
Even with Bogdanovic listed as questionable, there should be a higher likelihood that he suits up now that Trae Young has been ruled out. If that’s the case, Bogdanovic becomes one of the most underpriced players on the slate given the production boost he sees, as he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with Young off of the court this season.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are some of the top value plays on Monday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Because of how many value pieces there are on this slate, I have included the top five per-dollar values (on DraftKings) using the optimizer instead of writing up just two:
- DeAndre Jordan (8.09x)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (6.8x)
- Coby White (6.56x)
- Cam Reddish (6.4x)
- Ricky Rubio (6.24x)
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
- Joel Embiid ($11,400) – QUESTIONABLE
- LeBron James ($10,800)
- Russell Westbrook ($10,400)
- Trae Young ($10,100) – QUESTIONABLE
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- LeBron James ($11,000)
- Joel Embiid ($10,500) – QUESTIONABLE
- Trae Young ($10,000) – QUESTIONABLE
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- LeBron James (1x)
- Dejounte Murray (1.1x)
- Trae Young (1.1x)
With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $300k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.
- PG: David Duke Jr. (44.50)
- SG: Fred VanVleet (66.25)
- SF: Chuma Okeke (32.50)
- PF: Franz Wagner (39.25)
- C: DeMarcus Cousins (41.00)
- G: Bradley Beal (55.75)
- F: Jordan Nwora (49.75)
- UTIL: Rudy Gobert (47.75)
Total: 376.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $200 NBA Layup ($40k to first) last night.
- PG: Fred VanVleet (65.4)
- PG: Kemba Walker (39.7)
- SG: Donovan Mitchell (41.1)
- SG: Bradley Beal (54.5)
- SF: Franz Wagner (37.2)
- SF: Evan Fournier (47.5)
- PF: Julius Randle (40.3)
- PF: Jordan Nwora (44.2)
- C: Robin Lopez (36.0)
Total: 405.9
Similar to Friday’s slate, Saturday’s slate was riddled with COVID replacements, late news, and overwhelming chalk. It got to a point where there was so much value that it was almost difficult to exhaust all of your salary, simply because cheap players projected all too well.
The chalkiest pieces were Chuma Okeke, Franz Wagner, and Jordan Nwora, but the Warriors’ value was equally as chalky. The difference is that none of the Warriors chalk made it into either winning lineup. Jayson Tatum was also one of the highest-owned players on the slate and his sub-part performance paved the way for those that faded him to be in winning positions.
