College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
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We have 11 games on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 15 | NBA DFS First Look
Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -10.5, total: 221.5
Pace: HOU (1st), CLE (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Danuel House and Eric Gordon have been ruled out for the Rockets while Christian Wood is listed as questionable.
- Collin Sexton remains out for the Cavs.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic
ATL -7.5, total: 224.0
Pace: ATL (18th), ORL (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter remain out for the Hawks.
- E’Twaun Moore, Jalen Suggs, Michael Carter-Williams and Markelle Fultz remain out for the Magic.
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -6, total: 208.5
Pace: MIA (26th), PHI (T29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin have been ruled out for the Heat, while Tyler Herro is listed as questionable.
- Joel Embiid and Seth Curry are questionable for the Sixers.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -2, total: 216.0
Pace: LAL (2nd), DAL (T29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic has been ruled out for the Mavs.
- Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, Dwight Howard and Malik Monk have been ruled out for the Lakers. LeBron James is listed as probable, and Anthony Davis is listed as questionable.
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -1, total: 217.5
Pace: IND (23rd), MIL (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, DeMarcus Cousins and Wes Matthews have been ruled out for the Bucks while Khris Middleton is listed as questionable.
- T.J. McConnell remains out for the Pacers while Justin Holiday is listed as questionable.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
NOP -2, total: 210.5
Pace: NOP (22nd), OKC (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Luguentz Dort has been ruled out for the Thunder.
Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -3.5, total: 228.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), SAS (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- LaMelo Ball and Ish Smith remain out for the Hornets while Mason Plumlee is questionable.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -4.5, total: 217.5
Pace: MIN (6th), DEN (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, PJ Dozier and JaMychal Green remain out for the Nuggets while Will Barton, Aaron Gordon and Austin Rivers are all listed as questionable.
- D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable for the Timberwolves.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz
UTA -8.5, total: 216.0
Pace: LAC (11th), UTA (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George and Nicolas Batum are listed as questionable for the Clippers.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -0.5, total: 219.5
Pace: MEM (12th), POR (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke remain out for the Grizzlies.
- CJ McCollum remains out for the Blazers.
Washington Wizards @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -1, total: 225.5
Pace: WAS (24th), SAC (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Richaun Holmes is listed as doubtful for the Kings.
- Kyle Kuzma is listed as questionable for the Wizards.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Over his last 10 games, D’Angelo Russell’s 96.6 touches per game rank second in all of basketball to Nikola Jokic.
On a team with another ball-dominant wing in Anthony Edwards, this was a surprise. Russell has been in and out of the lineup while dealing with an injury, but he’s clearly commanded control of the offense when he’s been in the lineup. Assuming he plays against a thin Denver defense, Russell’s involvement alone makes him an intriguing tournament play who will likely be less than 5% rostered.
Over his last three games, Marvin Bagley has averaged 11.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
Bagley has re-established a spot in the rotation with Alvin Gentry taking over as interim head coach and the absence of Richaun Holmes over the last few games has only made that role grow. He’s been in and out of the starting lineup but has remained steady with 25.3 minutes per game over his last three, averaging nearly a double-double. With Holmes doubtful once again Wednesday, Bagley could be a source of salary relief for yet another slate.
Over his last three games, Kevin Love has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute.
Efficient per-minute production isn’t out of the ordinary for Love, as he’s averaging 25.5 DraftKings points in 20.0 minutes per game, but we’ve seen a dramatic increase in this production lately. He’s logged at least nine rebounds in two of the last three games and has attempted at least 10 shots in four of his last five. With a soft matchup against the Rockets on deck, we should prepare for another extremely efficient outing from the veteran forward.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two of the top value plays on Wednesday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Jordan Nwora (MIL): This play is contingent on Khris Middleton sitting out. He posted 19.75 DK points last game with both Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo out, but that number jumped to an average of 46.50 DK points per game in three games without the duo last season. While I wouldn’t expect nearly 50 DK points, 10x is not out of the question at his $3,000 salary.
Armoni Brooks (HOU): Brooks has averaged 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in 29.8 minutes per game over his last four games, exceeding value in all four despite missing a chunk of last game with an injury. With Eric Gordon ruled out in addition to Jalen Green and Kevin Porter, Brooks should be in for a heavy workload once again.
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
- LeBron James ($11,100)
- Joel Embiid ($11,000)
- Trae Young ($10,700)
- Russell Westbrook ($10,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
- LeBron James ($11,200)
- Joel Embiid ($10,500)
- Trae Young ($10,100)
- Anthony Davis ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- LeBron James (1x)
- Dejounte Murray (1.1x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
- PG: David Duke (40.25)
- SG: Patty Mills (42.00)
- SF: Kessler Edwards (38.50)
- PF: Kevin Durant (72.25)
- C: Nicolas Claxton (27.75)
- G: Fred VanVleet (54.50)
- F: Scottie Barnes (47.50)
- UTIL: Deandre Ayton (49.75)
Total: 372.50
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $350k Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
- PG: Chris Paul (60.6)
- PG: Fred VanVleet (51.3)
- SG: Gary Trent (43.9)
- SG: David Duke (42.1)
- SF: Kevin Durant (65.1)
- SF: Scottie Barnes (42.9)
- PF: Nicolas Claxton (27.9)
- PF: Blake Griffin (33.0)
- C: Jusuf Nurkic (42.1)
Total: 408.9
Tuesday’s slate took a left turn roughly 60 minutes prior to lock, as both James Harden and Bruce Brown entered the league’s health and safety protocols. With Harden shaping up to be massive chalk with the expectation Kevin Durant was going to rest, the slate was flipped upside down. This ended up causing the Nets to rely on eight total bodies, five of which found their way into the winning DraftKings lineup. David Duke was a strong pivot off the chalkier Cam Thomas, who finished with under 10 fantasy points on both sites.
Frankly, just about a total game-stack between the Nets and Raptors was all you needed to have success on this slate, as seven pieces from that game won it all on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
