Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have five games on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 12th | NBA DFS First Look
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
BKN -8.5, total: 214.0
Pace: BKN (10th), DET (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- James Harden, Joe Harris, and Paul Millsap are all out for the Nets.
- Jerami Grant has been ruled out for the Pistons.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DAL -4.5, total: 209.5
Pace: DAL (27th), OKC (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- Luka Doncic and Willie Cauley-Stein have been ruled out for the Mavs. Sterling Brown is listed as questionable.
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -2.5, total: 220.0
Pace: BKN (11th), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -0.5, total: 221.0
Pace: MIN (6th), POR (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- CJ McCollum has been ruled out for the Blazers while Damian Lillard is listed as questionable.
- D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable for the Timberwolves
Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -11.5, total: 220.5
Pace: ORL (13th), LAL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis is listed as questionable and LeBron James is listed as probable for the Lakers.
- Jalen Suggs remains out for the Magic.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for December 12th, 2021.
Jalen Brunson averages 44.5% more DraftKings points per game without Luka Doncic this season.
We saw the same trend last season. Brunson sees statistical bumps in just about every category when Doncic sits. His usage rate jumps up to 27.14% while averaging 17.75 points, 8.75 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game. You won’t find a floor/ceiling combination as high as his in this price range, making him a no-brainer at only $5,300 on DraftKings.
Kevin Durant has averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute in 101.1 minutes with James Harden off of the floor this season.
Durant will likely be the spend-up of choice on Sunday with Harden out, but there’s merit to simply eating the chalk. His 1.69 fantasy-points-per-minute mark is elite, as he posts a 34.3% usage rate and a 43.1% assist rate (+18.3% bump) with Harden off the court. He’s live for a triple-double in a situation where he’s far and away the only reliable offensive threat on the team.
Cade Cunningham sees a +4.7% bump in usage rate with Jerami Grant off of the court this season.
An 85-minute sample size isn’t the largest in the world, but it’s certainly enough to rely on the data. In those 85 minutes, Cunningham posted a 31.4% usage rate, 27.7% assist rate, and 7.4% rebounding rate en route to 1.00 fantasy points per minute. This game could stay closer than expected with Harden out, making this a sneaky spot to take advantage of an under-owned Cunningham with few other options on the slate.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are two of the top value plays on Sunday’s slate. For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
Jalen Brunson (DAL): Brunson’s price has finally come down to a point where he’ll now be massive chalk on a five-game slate without Luka Doncic. As noted above, he’s seen a notable bump in just about every productive metric in the four games without Doncic this season, and we saw much of the same last season. Don’t overthink this one.
Cam Thomas (BKN): Thomas has emerged as a key rotation player, having played at least 25 minutes in three of his last four games. With James Harden out, we should see an expanded role for Thomas once again, even if he doesn’t crack the starting lineup. At $3,500, he makes for arguably the best sub-$4,000 value piece on the slate.
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- LeBron James ($10,800)
- Russell Westbrook ($10,500)
- Anthony Davis ($10,400)
- Damian Lillard ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- LeBron James ($11,000)
- Kevin Durant ($10,800)
- Anthony Davis ($10,000)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500)
- Dejounte Murray ($9,300)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- LeBron James (1x)
- Dejounte Murray (1.1x)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (1.1x)
With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.
- PG: Armoni Brooks (36.00)
- SG: Darius Garland (50.50)
- SF: Duncan Robinson (33.25)
- PF: Kyle Anderson (37.25)
- C: Dewayne Dedmon (44.00)
- G: Kyle Lowry (47.25)
- F: Dillon Brooks (28.50)
- UTIL: Nikola Jokic (75.25)
Total: 352.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $300k Layup ($50k to first) last night.
- PG: Kyle Lowry (44.6)
- PG: Tyus Jones (34.8)
- SG: Zach LaVine (46.4)
- SG: Armoni Brooks (33.2)
- SF: Buddy Hield (36.00)
- SF: Kyle Anderson (39.4)
- PF: Jarrett Allen (48.7)
- PF: Alperen Sengun (40.2)
- C: Nikola Jokic (71.4)
Total: 394.7
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($1.5k to first) last night.
- G: Darius Garland (72.80)
- G: Kyle Lowry (65.14)
- G: Armoni Brooks (65.68)
- F: Zach LaVine (57.79)
- F: Kyle Anderson (65.59)
- F: Evan Mobley (55.69)
- C: Nikola Jokic (75.75)
Total: 458.44
The six-game Saturday slate took a slight turn in the late afternoon, as Jaren Jackson Jr. was downgraded to doubtful and Caleb Martin was ruled out. With these being two of the more popular plays on the slate, ownership started to condense around the Heat value pieces 0- Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, and Kyle Anderson. All three of these players paid off their salaries and then some. Armoni Brooks was another popular value piece that paid off. Even with it being announced that he was coming off of the bench, his ownership stayed elevated, rewarding those who stuck with him. Nikola Jokic was the chalk de jour up top on Saturday, coming in 50% or higher across all sites.
