Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have nine games on tap on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 5 | NBA DFS First Look
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
BKN -10, total: 212.5
Pace: BKN (8th), DET (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nicolas Claxton remains out for the Nets.
San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic
SAS -3.5, total: 212
Pace: SAS (1st), ORL (T18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jakob Poeltl is expected to miss several games for the Spurs.
- Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams remain out for the Magic.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards
WAS -1, total: 225.5
Pace: MEM (T11th), WAS (T15th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies.
- Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -6, total: 212.5
Pace: CLE (T13th), TOR (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love and Isaac Okoro are out for the Cavaliers.
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -5, total: 217.5
Pace: NYK (T18th), MIL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton remain out for the Bucks.
- Jrue Holiday is probable for the Bucks.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
LAC -3, total: 215.5
Pace: LAC (6th), MIN (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- D’Angelo Russell remains out for the Timberwolves.
- Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris remain out for the Clippers.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -9, total: 219.5
Pace: NOP (T11th), GSW (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Brandon Ingram is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -3.5, total: 223.5
Pace: IND (9th), POR (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb remain out for the Pacers.
Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -1.5, total: 226
Pace: CHA (4th), SAC (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- LaMelo Ball is listed as probable for the Hornets, while P.J. Washington is listed as doubtful.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
The San Antonio Spurs rank 29th against rebounders, 30th against rim protectors and 30th against skilled centers, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.
The Magic have not one, but two players that you could consider in this matchup, as Wendell Carter classifies as a rebounder per the metric, while Mo Bamba classifies as a rim protector and a rebounder. The former (Carter), has seen 33 or more minutes in four of his last five games, topping 37 DK points in all four of those contests with a double-double in each. Without Jakob Poeltl protecting the rim, the Spurs only become more susceptible to getting gauged down low, making this a spot to attack in DFS.
In his three games with the Pistons, Cade Cunningham leads the team with a 26.4% usage rate and ranks second on the team with a 19.1% assist rate.
Cunningham’s true ceiling has been hindered by his lack of efficiency, as he’s shot 1-of-8, 2-of-14 and 4-of-17 in his three games since returning from injury. He’s been especially bad from beyond the arc, going 1-of-21 over those three games. A 40% three-point shooter at Oklahoma State, it’s hard to imagine this lack of efficiency carrying on for much longer, especially after how effective he was in Summer League, hitting 50% of his 26 threes. Until his price ($4,600) adjusts to his role and isn’t solely reactive to his production, he’s going to be a value. With the report of no limitations on back-to-backs, Cunningham is an elite value once again Friday.
No player in the entire NBA is averaging more touches per game than Malcolm Brogdon (96.5).
Brogdon returned from injury last game against the Knicks and played a full 36 minutes, showing little signs of rust or limitations. He now gets to turn his attention to a much softer defense (Portland) at a price tag on DraftKings ($8,600) that is roughly $2,000 cheaper than the players that trail him on the leaderboard in terms of touches per game. Given his newfound role with this Pacers team (22.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game), the argument can be made that Brogdon is $1,000 too cheap.
Scottie Barnes ranks top 15 in the entire NBA in transition points per game (5.0).
Rejoining the Raptors lineup after a brief stint away due to injury, Barnes returns to arguably the best matchup that he could ask for on Friday against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Barnes has scored nearly 28% of his points this season in transition, so getting to square off against a Cavs team that allows the second-most transition points per game (24.0) in the league caters right into his wheelhouse. With minutes security and peripheral production to go along with the scoring output, Barnes comes in as one of the best all-around mid-tier options on the slate at $6,800 on DraftKings.
The Golden State Warriors rank bottom seven in the NBA in contested rebound percentage (30.9%).
While they struggle to come away with contested rebounds, the Warriors do rank first overall in adjusted rebound chances (66.3%), showing that it’s not all bad on the glass, as the opportunity certainly is there. The issue, however, is their matchup with Jonas Valanciunas Friday.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers. Valanciunas ranks second in the entire NBA in rebounding chances per game (23.1), rebounds per game (14.1) and has a contested rebounding rate of 46.5% (almost 10% higher than Rudy Gobert). If there’s a matchup that caters to 20-20 upside, this is the one for Valanciunas.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
- Stephen Curry ($11,400)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,700)
- Kevin Durant ($10,600)
- Paul George ($10,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)
- Paul George ($10,800)
- Kevin Durant ($10,500)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200)
- James Harden ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
- Domantas Sabonis (1.05x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Thursday’s slate was a chalky five-game slate, as LeBron James and Donovan Mitchell were both ruled out well before slate lock, condensing ownership around two Lakers stars in Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, as well as the ancillary Utah players (Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic). Navigating which chalk was good and which was bad was crucial to last night’s success, outlined below.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $425k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Shake Milton (37.0)
SG: Cade Cunningham (39.0)
SF: Josh Giddey (33.0)
PF: Carmelo Anthony (39.50)
C: Christian Wood (51.25)
G: Jordan Clarkson (40.50)
F: Anthony Davis (65.00)
UTIL: Mike Conley (39.25)
Total: 344.50
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Chris Paul (53.5)
PG: Mike Conley (38.7)
SG: Jordan Clarkson (37.3)
SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (44.6)
SF: Kevin Porter (29.7)
SF: Carmelo Anthony (39.2)
PF: Georges Niang (27.4)
PF: Anthony Davis (64.1)
C: Christian Wood (49.5)
Total: 384.0
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s Jump Shot ($4k to first) Thursday night.
G: Chris Paul (67.81)
G: Matisse Thybulle (36.90)
G: Tyrese Maxey (61.60)
F: Anthony Davis (69.83)
F: Christian Wood (63.30)
F: Carmelo Anthony (71.40)
C: Rudy Gobert (50.10)
Total: 420.94
Shake Milton was another popular piece, particularly on DraftKings, where his ownership inflated north of 40% in the $425k Fadeaway once he was announced as the starter for Philadelphia. Coming through with nearly 10x value, he was some of the best chalk on the slate. Two Jazz values made it into both winning lineups (Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson), while both lineups were also anchored by Anthony Davis. The interesting takeaway here is that neither winning lineup had Russell Westbrook, who was grading out to be one of the best overall plays on the slate, especially on FanDuel where his $9,200 price tag projected him as one of the best per-dollar options on the slate as well.
