Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 11 games on tap on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 12 | NBA DFS First Look
New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets
NYK -2, total: 224.0
Pace: NYK (26th), CHA (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- P.J. Washington has been ruled out for the Hornets.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
MIL -2, total: 213.5
Pace: MIL (10th), BOS (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable, while Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
- Jaylen Brown remains out for the Celtics.
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -5, total: 203.0
Pace: DET (21st), CLE (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love are all out for the Cavs.
- Kelly Olynyk has been ruled out for the Pistons.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
POR -6.5, total: 223.5
Pace: POR (12th), HOU (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter is listed as probable for the Rockets.
- Norman Powell is listed as questionable for the Blazers.
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -1, total: 222.0
Pace: PHO (4th), MEM (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks has been ruled out, while Steven Adams is currently listed as questionable for the Grizzlies.
- Deandre Ayton is doubtful for the Suns.
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans
BKN -7.5, total: 211.5
Pace: BKN (11th), NOP (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brandon Ingram and Naji Marshall are listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
SAC -4.5, total: 218.0
Pace: SAC (8th), OKC (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable for the Kings.
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
DAL -2.5, total: 218.0
Pace: DAL (23rd), SAS (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jakob Poeltl remains out for the Spurs, while Keita Bates-Diop is listed as questionable and Jock Landale has been ruled out.
- Maxi Kleber remains out for the Mavericks.
Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -4.5, total: 217.5
Pace: ATL (15th), DEN (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- Michael Porter remains out for the Nuggets.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter are listed as questionable for the Hawks.
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -5.5, total: 221.5
Pace: CHI (17th), GSW (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Vucevic has been ruled out for the Bulls.
- Draymond Green and Damion Lee are listed as questionable for the Warriors.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -3, total: 225.0
Pace: MIN (9th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis is listed as probable for the Lakers, while LeBron James, Talen Horton-Tucker, Austin Reaves and Trevor Ariza remain out. Rajon Rondo is also questionable.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
In 98.2 minutes with Nikola Vucevic and Patrick Williams off the floor this season, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute.
That rate of 1.46 DKP/min is actually second on the team to Zach LaVine (1.58), but LaVine’s sample size of only 25.6 minutes has me trusting DeRozan’s larger body of work in this scenario, with nearly four times the amount of minutes. In those near-100 minutes, he’s posted a 39.3% usage rate (also second to LaVine, 43.7%), 17.3% assist rate, and 8.3% rebounding rate, flashing his do-it-all ability.
Because of the $500 discount you get when moving from DeRozan ($8,500) to LaVine ($8,000), the masses will likely opt for the latter, making this a great opportunity to get some leverage with DeRozan. Either way, both are elite options under $9,000 with Vucevic ruled out for Friday.
Over the last four games, Will Barton has posted a 24.2% usage rate and 1.24 DraftKings points per minute.
Barton has been the primary beneficiary of Michael Porter’s absence and was also the one to step up in the absence of Nikola Jokic last game, as he’s added a 25.9% assist rate and 7.6% rebounding rate for good measure. He’s playing massive minutes, never dropping below 34 in any of those last four games while attempting at least 14 shots in all four contests, making his sub-$7,000 price tag a nice value, especially against an Atlanta defense that has been a shell of the unit that we saw in the second half of last season.
Darius Garland posted 93 touches last game without Collin Sexton in the lineup.
Those 93 touches are 21.4 touches higher than Garland’s season average (72.6), as he completely ran away with the ball-handling duties and had the entire offense flowing through him last game. His production didn’t necessarily match the opportunity, but the important thing is that the latter was there. Garland should continue to see 90-plus touches per game with Sexton out, making him an elite value with a massive ceiling for under $7,000.
The Lakers currently rank 25th against crafty finishers and 21st against primary ball handlers, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP tool.
It may feel chasey to recommend Anthony Edwards after his 48-point explosion, but he draws another favorable matchup on Friday, as the Lakers struggle precisely where Edwards thrives. In addition to their struggle with slashing ball handlers, they rank first in pace, creating an extremely fruitful game environment for the second-year phenom.
Since making his NBA debut, Cade Cunningham has led the Pistons in touches per game (65.0), time of possession per game (4.3 minutes) and usage rate (28.8%).
Cunningham’s production is finally starting to come around as he continues to struggle with some inefficiency, but the massive ceiling that is clearly there as indicated by his usage metrics has not been hit yet. The last game was his first outing this season where he shot over 40% from the field and he’s taken no less than 17 shots in each of his last three games. With his form rounding into shape ahead of a matchup with the Cavs, I will gladly stay on the Cunningham train until we hit that ceiling game.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,700)
- Stephen Curry ($11,600)
- Russell Westbrook ($11,200)
- Kevin Durant ($11,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- Anthony Davis ($10,800)
- Kevin Durant ($10,300)
- Luka Doncic ($10,200)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Russell Westbrook (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
With only three games on the slate Thursday, ownership was understandably condensed. After a number of slates with a lot of value from the 76ers, the return of Tobias Harris and the fact that sites had appropriately priced the ancillary pieces caused their overall ownership to plummet. Instead, most ownership was centered around the Miami Heat, who were without Jimmy Butler against the Clippers.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Pull Up Jumper ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Malcolm Brogdon (49.75)
SG: Tyler Herro (37.25)
SF: Paul George (45.50)
PF: P.J. Tucker (19.00)
C: Bam Adebayo (48.25)
G: T.J. McConnell (40.50)
F: Luke Kennard (31.00)
UTIL: Ivica Zubac (38.75)
Total: 310.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Fred VanVleet (51.7)
PG: Malcolm Brogdon (48.8)
SG: Tyrese Maxey (52.3)
SG: T.J. McConnell (40.1)
SF: Tyler Herro (36.9)
SF: Duncan Robinson (30.3)
PF: Bam Adebayo (47.2)
PF: Scottie Barnes (36.8)
C: Ivica Zubac (38.7)
Total: 382.8
As shown above, the Miami Heat pieces dominated the top of the leaderboards. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were two of the highest-rostered players on the slate, while Duncan Robinson got over 50% owned on FanDuel given his dirt-cheap price tag. Malcolm Brogdon was a difference-maker at sub-30% ownership, while Luke Kennard came in as the gem under 5% rostered that had a ceiling game (relative to his salary).
