Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Our first weekend DFS slate of the NBA season features seven games with a handful of injury situations to monitor. Pricing has been all over the place over the first few slates of the season, so we need to always make sure we are aware of changes.
Let’s take a first look at Saturday’s NBA DFS action, shall we?
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
MIA -4.5, total: 223
Pace: MIA (2nd), IND (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an ankle injury. He suffered the injury on Thursday but did manage to return to the game.
Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors
DAL -4, total: 216.5
Pace: DAL (7th), TOR (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Pascal Siakam remains out for the Raptors.
Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -8.5, total: 213
Pace: DET (10th), CHI (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Pistons rookie Cade Cunningham (ankle) won’t make his debut until after Detroit’s road trip.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -7, total: 228
Pace: NOP (23rd), MIN (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Josh Hart (quadriceps) did not play Friday and is questionable for Saturday’s contest. With Zion Williamson already sidelined, Herbert Jones got the start at small forward Friday and played 29 minutes.
Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs
MIL -7, total: 224
Pace: MIL (5th), SAS (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Donte DiVincenzo all remain out for the Bucks, while Jrue Holiday (heel) is probable. Giannis Antetokounmpo got the start at center during Milwaukee’s last game.
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -2.5, total: 231.5
Pace: PHX (22nd), POR (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- None
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -4, total: 225.5
Pace: MEM (6th), LAC (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks will remain sidelined for 2-3 weeks for the Grizzlies.
- Serge Ibaka will likely miss this game as he recovers from offseason back surgery.
Five Stats to Know
Scottie Barnes is converting 73.3% of his rebounding chances
Barnes was a very strong rebounder in college, and it appears to be translating to the NBA. Through two games, he has hauled in 13 and nine rebounds, as he continues to start and play huge minutes in the absence of Pascal Siakam. Barnes is converting over 73% of his rebounding opportunities on the young season, while averaging a very respectable 15 chances per game. He has also been very aggressive in the early going, attempting 13 and 17 field goals. I have zero reason why his price tag on DraftKings went from $3,400 to $4,500 and now back down to $4,000 but I intend to take advantage.
Through two games, Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan are all averaging at least 10 points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler
Going into the season, many fantasy players were curious how the usage would look with the Bulls. On top of already having a high-usage center in Nikola Vucevic, Chicago added Ball and DeRozan. Through the first two games, it appears that everyone is getting plenty of opportunities, as LaVine, Ball and DeRozan are all averaging at least 10 points per game as the primary ball-handler out of the pick-and-roll. DeRozan leads the team in such possessions per game (10.0), while LaVine is right behind him (9.0). Ball isn’t as high in that department but is instead averaging six spot-up possessions per game, which isn’t too shocking. Last year with the Pelicans, Ball transformed into a very reliable spot-up shooter, ranking top-three in both possessions (5.6) and points (6.2) per game off the play type. Ball recorded a triple-double last night but there are going to be plenty of games where one or two of these players underwhelms in fantasy.
Brandon Ingram is sporting a 21% frequency rate off screens
With Zion Williamson out, the Pelicans are going to have to continue relying on Ingram. Through two games, Ingram has attempted 26 and 20 shots, while sporting a 33.1% usage rate, none of which is too surprising given the circumstances. He’s scored at least 40 fantasy points in both contests and with Williamson sidelined and Lonzo in Chicago, the peripherals have been an added bonus for Ingram through two games. I like going back to him here against a vulnerable Minnesota defense that surrendered the most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens last season (1.09), as well as the third-highest field goal percentage off the play type (44.1%). New Orleans is doing whatever they can to get their top player good looks on offense, as Ingram is sporting a 21% frequency rate off screens, while averaging 5.5 such possessions per game.
Malcolm Brogdon is averaging 105 touches per game through two contests
The Pacers are heavily relying on their two best players in the early going, Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. And with Caris LeVert sidelined, it makes sense. Their latest game went to overtime, but Brogdon has logged at least 40 minutes in both games, while his 105 touches per game currently lead the NBA. He obviously won’t sustain that number all season, but it’s fair to project him to finish inside the top-five or six in that category, as his 86.1 touches per game from a season ago ranked eighth best in basketball. The Pacers are coming off the front end of a back-to-back that consisted of five quarters so just make sure they don’t decide to rest anyone here, especially after playing their starters huge minutes through two games.
Terance Mann posted a 20% rebounding rate with both Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the floor last season
Mann has been somewhat of an unsung hero for the Clippers as of late and Los Angeles clearly loves him, as they rewarded him with a contract extension during the offseason. Mann didn’t start the opener but tied Paul George for the team-lead in minutes with 39, scoring a respectable 28.5 fantasy points. He grabbed eight rebounds and has been an underrated rebounder for a while now. With Leonard and Ibaka sidelined, Mann will continue to have the opportunity to log huge minutes and with both players off the floor last season, his rebounding rate climbed up to a strong 20% mark.
Last Night’s GPP Performances
DraftKings optimal lineup
Spencer Dinwiddie (57.5)
Jalen Suggs (37.75)
Scottie Barnes (45.75)
Kyle Kuzma (47.75)
Christian Wood (61.0)
Lonzo Ball (58.5)
Tobias Harris (38.75)
Kevin Durant (73.75)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Malcolm Brogdon (55.6)
Lonzo Ball (56)
Spencer Dinwiddie (53.7)
DeMar DeRozan (38.2)
Kyle Kuzma (43.2)
Kevin Porter (47.1)
Myles Turner (63)
Christian Wood (58.3)
Jonas Valanciunas (35.1)
SuperDraft optimal lineup
Spencer Dinwiddie (85.50)
Fred VanVleet (50.05)
Zach LaVine (61.10)
Christian Wood (78.13)
Chris Duarte (57.0)
Myles Turner (97.88)
Evan Mobley (48.4)
Once again, plenty of players benefited from an overtime game, as we saw huge performances from a handful of Wizards and Pacers on Friday. The absence of Bradley Beal propelled Spencer Dinwiddie into a huge role and a ton of attention in DFS, but he clearly delivered. Christian Wood was also relatively popular, while the roster percentages for some of the rookies continues to be intriguing as we see how solidified their roles are with their new teams.
