Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA has a robust slate of games for Sunday. The first wave of early games starts with a marquee matchup between the Suns and Mavericks. I didn’t make any bets on this game, but I am looking forward to watching it. The bulk of today’s schedule starts later in the day, so you have plenty of time to run those Sunday errands before making some bets.
Our NBA edge tool is pointing to a lot of unders today, so be careful taking too many scoring overs. With that said, we do have some guys popping above their prop numbers in our NBA Player prop tool, so make sure to check that out before you make your plays today. For now, here are my three NBA best bets for Sunday.
Best NBA Total Bet
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 235.5
Stephen Curry is ready to make his return. That probably helps the over. With that said, the Warriors and Lakers are both playing very good defense lately. Over the last two weeks, the normal middle-of-the-pack Warriors have allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions of any team in the league. Not to be outdone, the normally bad Lakers defense is much improved too. After being in the bottom half of the league defensively most of the year, the Lakers have allowed the seventh-fewest points per 100 over the last two weeks. With two teams playing good defense, a 235 total seems a bit too high.
Best NBA Point Prop Bet(s)
Paolo Banchero OVER 20.5 points
This is one of the best possible matchups anyone can have against a Portland team that gives up a ton of points. They rank 27th on the season for points allowed per 100, and that’s been even worse over the last two weeks with Jusuf Nurkic on the bench. Portland has allowed 126 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks, which is almost 10 points worse than their season average. On top of the matchup, Paolo Banchero is coming off one of his best games of the season, going 13-for-26 on his way to 31 points. He had a 29-point game three games back as well, so we are starting to see Paolo break out. With the matchup and his increased opportunity, I like his chances to top 20.5 again today.
Mitchell Robinson Over 6.5 Points
Mitchell Robinson has been pretty solid since returning from injury. In four of the last five games, he went for double-digit points and double-digit rebounds. I actually started looking at Robinson for the rebounding total, especially against a Celtics team that will be without Robert Williams. He’s plus money for over 9.5 and +300/+400 for a double-double. Then I noticed the scoring prop was super low. It’s listed at just seven points. Robinson played the Celtics a week ago, seeing 32 minutes and going for 10 points and 13 rebounds. I like both of his props today, but the scoring at 6.5 feels like the better play.
