Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After Tuesday’s games, we will be one month away from the end of the NBA season. Teams have slightly under 20 games each remaining in the season. The expansion of the playoffs for those play in spots now has more teams still alive with a chance for postseason basketball. That should help to keep these games competitive for a few more weeks.
Teams are beginning to shut down injured veterans and get a longer look at some of the young players and newly added pieces from the trade deadline. I tend to play less sides and totals this late in the season, but we can find some bigger edges in the player prop markets. You can get all of the day’s plays in the NBA Bet Tracker, but for now here are my three NBA best bets for the slate.
NBA Best Point Prop Bets Today
D’Angelo Russell Over 20.5 Points
In two games since returning from injury, D’Angelo Russell has been on fire. He played 31 and 35 minutes, scoring 28 and 33 points. This is actually not the best environment. New Orleans plays at a middle of the league pace, much below the Lakers. They are also surprisingly solid on the defense end this season. With that being said, I still think this number is 3-4 points below where it should be. I would not look to ladder him today, but I’ll take the over at 21 points for a cash.
Darius Garland Over 21.5 Points
This number is juiced up for Darius Garland, but it’s a good sign since it opened at 21.5 and is getting hammered. Many books have it at 22.5 and some even at -115. Garland has 21 or more points in seven of the last nine games he has played. No reason to overthink this one. He sat out a few days, but returned last time out to play 39 minutes, scoring 28 points and doing it against the same opponent. This number is too low. It is still playable up to 23.5 with our projections having him over 25 today. Cleveland plays at the slowest pace in the league and Charlotte is top 10, so this is a big uptick for them.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet Today
Kelly Oubre Over 5.5 Rebounds
Kelly Oubre‘s rebounding number is one of the biggest edges in our NBA player prop model today. We project him for almost 7.5 rebounds, and he only needs 6 to cash here. The absence of Jarrett Allen makes this a better spot for opposing rebounders. He’s played six games in March since moving into the starting lineup. He’s averaged 37 minutes, 25 points and 6.7 rebounds in his new role. An average recent game gets this done.
