Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We got a large 11-game NBA DFS slate Friday in the NBA, and we’re missing some stars but the top of the salary grid is relatively clean as things stand. Nine games have a spread of five points or less and then we have a late-night hammer that carries the highest total on the evening. Let’s get right to work to lay out some stats so we can start our lineup construction.
1. Jusuf Nurkic is fifth in points per game in the post-up play type
The Blazers take on the Pacers, and we know by now that centers are always in play against this team, and then we go to DraftKings and see they have priced Nurkic at a paltry $6,000. The Pacers are eight in pace, 26th in points per game against centers, and the bottom five against rebounders. Furthermore, they allow the 11th-most points per game when they are tasked with defending the post up and Nurkic is elite in that play type. I won’t be surprised if he is chalky but for a player that is close to 1.20 points per minute, I very much understand why that would happen. I would assume he’s going to be a strong play in cash at top-five in rostership.
2. The Hornets are 26th in defensive rating
That means Giannis Antetokounmpo is in just a smash spot and the FTN Advanced DvP Tool illustrates everything –
We’ve grown numb to what Giannis does so often since he’s at a 39.4% usage rate and 1.72 points per minute without Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday could be limited. He’s coming back from an illness and only played 19 minutes in his last game, so I’m not sold on him playing a full boat of minutes. We’re surely getting some value through the day on this slate to afford Giannis and he may have heard everyone gushing over Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic lately since he’s rattled off four straight games of at least 72.25 DK points.
3. Keldon Johnson is under $7,000 without Devin Vassell
We’ve talked about Johnson a lot this year, and sometimes it hasn’t been kind words. His shot has betrayed him at points but tonight is a Victor Wembanyama Special as both the Pistons and Spurs are in the tank battle for the number one draft pick. These teams are 29th and 30th in defensive rating while the Spurs are still playing at the 10th-fastest pace. Detroit is 26th against scorers and crafty finishers this year, not to mention he has a 31.5% usage rate and 1.12 points per minute. Johnson leads the league in spot-up scoring at 6.8 points per game while the Pistons are 13th in points allowed per game. This is just a salary play and he put up 37.3 DK points on just 16 shots in the last game.
4. Rudy Gobert is only $6,400 on DK
I’m already hating myself typing this out, but the GPP pivot to Nurkic (if he’s as chalky as I would think) could well be Gobert. It’s not just he’s coming off a strong game, it’s simply the fact that the upside and salary don’t match. Gobert is still second in rebounding chances per game on the season and with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Gobert is at 1.02 points per minute. The Clippers are 30th against rim protectors and 22nd against centers overall. Additionally, they are tied for the eighth-most points per game allowed in points per game and Gobert is fifth with 2.7 points per game. Getting the positive outcome from Gobert in two straight games has been as easy as defending Nikola Jokic in the post, but the salary makes so much sense.
5. LeBron James is the late-night hammer
If playing Giannis is not your speed, LeBron James is attempting to drag whatever is left of this team to a win against the Hawks. Not only is he missing Anthony Davis, but now Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker are out for this game. It is only a 110-minute sample for LeBron but he’s had a 36.5% usage rate and 1.60 points per minute. There are very few players on this team that can really score the ball and LeBron has 90 points in the past two games combined. Both teams are in the top six in pace and this matchup just went for 251 points on Dec. 30.
