Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got eight games in front of us tonight, and four of those have totals of over 235 points, while no game has a spread over nine.
That should make for a mostly competitive slate, and we already have some big-name stars ruled out. Let’s find some stats that jump out at us and start building some lineups.
1. The Nets are 20th against primary ball-handlers
The Lakers have already ruled out LeBron James and Anthony Davis for their matchup with the Nets. The results lately for Russell Westbrook don’t look like they’d be worth shelling out $7,500, but the loss of James and Davis changes the calculus by an awful lot, and the FTN Splits Tool shows just how much –
When those two players are off the floor, Westbrook jumps to a 34.7% usage rate, a 49.3% assist rate and 1.36 points per minute. He will almost certainly not start since the Lakers are not willing to change his role, but he’s approaching 32 minutes per game in those three games without the two stars. That’s enough at this salary, and the spread is under 10 points, so he’s going to be popular and likely deserves to be.
2. Draymond Green is sixth in passes made per game this year
The Warriors are in Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder and are a few games into making a tweak to their starting lineup. Coach Steve Kerr moved Draymond Green to play center four games ago and moved Kevon Looney to the bench, and that’s been a nice bonus for Green’s fantasy scoring. In those four games, he’s scoring 1.06 points per minute while acting as a hub for the Golden State offense. Additionally, both teams are in the top three in pace, and those are the games when Green can rack up a ton of stats. He’s never going to score a ton of real points anymore, but he’s totaled 33 real points in the past four games and has still scored 43.75, 35.25, 40.25 and 23.25 DK points in those games. He’s simply far too cheap for this matchup, and as long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t create foul trouble for him, he’s got a great chance to smash this salary.
3. Anthony Edwards is 16th in points scored from driving to the basket
He’s taken a big step forward as far as fantasy production since Karl-Anthony Towns has been out of the lineup, and we’re going to see a repeat of the Saturday night game between the Kings and Timberwolves. In that game, Anthony Edwards scored over 60 DK points and is still under $9,500, which makes little sense to me. The Kings are just 28th in points per game allowed in the paint and also 19th against crafty finishers. This is another game that has a high total of 237.5 points, and both teams are in the top seven in pace. With Edwards playing so well in his past handful of games and sporting 1.27 points per minute without Towns, this is a great spot for him to have another monster game.
4. Jakob Poeltl is scoring 1.26 points per minute without Devin Vassell
Devin Vassell has been out for a little while now, but the Spurs are taking on the Wizards tonight, which means this is a very fun spot for Jakob Poeltl. We’ve attacked the defense of Daniel Gafford for the Wizards throughout the season, and Washington is 20th in points per game allowed in the paint. Poeltl is scoring 6.1 points per game and is now under $6,000. That salary doesn’t come without risk because the minutes have been very sketchy for Poeltl lately. He’s been under 30 for around two weeks, but Saturday night he played 33 minutes against the Suns. They typically play a big man, and the Wizards not only have Gafford, they welcome back Kristaps Porzingis tonight. I’m very hopeful that it will help Poeltl stay on the floor, and I’m extremely interested in Poeltl at just $5,800 on DK.
5. The Blazers allow 7.8 points per game to the roll man in the pick-and-roll
That is the eighth-most in the league, and Clint Capela is scoring 3.8 points per game as the roll man (10th most). Among those 10 players, Capela is also second in points per possession at 1.45, while the Blazers are 23rd against rim protectors and 19th against rebounders. Capela has worked his way back from a knee issue and is playing 28-30 minutes even with Onyeka Okongwu healthy. Portland is also 23rd in points allowed per game in the paint, and the salary is not high enough for Capela at this point, especially if Jusuf Nurkic is out again for the Blazers.
