MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
There’s always a ton to keep up with on any given NBA DFS slate no matter the size. Here are five stats that stand out to me to get us started on Wednesday’s slate.
1. T.J. McConnell has produced 1.35 DK points per minute in his last 7 games
The seven-game sample size corresponds to Tyrese Haliburton’s absence with a sprained elbow and bone bruise in his knee. While Hali is reportedly nearing a return (he participated in the non-contact portions of the Pacers practice Monday), he will still be out Wednesday when Indiana takes on Orlando after beating Chicago Tuesday. McConnell has started each of the last two games and averaged just a touch under 40 minutes per game in those starts. Andrew Nembhard was out Tuesday, but even if he plays Wednesday , it’s hard to avoid TJ, whose price actually decreased on DK since Tuesday.
2. Brandon Clarke killed my lineups Monday
More of a tilt than a stat. But Steven Adams is out for the next two to three weeks with a PCL sprain, meaning we’ll be paying attention to the Grizzlies frontcourt and the potential values therein. Clarke was in foul trouble in the first half Monday after somewhat surprisingly not getting the start (Xavier Tillman did the honors and played 29.5 minutes in the blowout loss to Sacramento). The Griz continue their West Coast road trip Wednesday against the Warriors, and I’m still going to have interest in Clarke, especially if he is projected to be low owned. With the Warriors recently going small with their starting lineup (Jordan Poole over Kevon Looney), I’m not shocked if Clarke gets the start here.
3. Deni Avdija played 32 minutes off the bench Tuesday
We had some trepidation with our initial Avdija love on the stream Tuesday after it was announced he would come off the bench. After advising that I was personally swapping off some of the initial 75% I had in my build (and ended up with 30%) I’m left wishing I had stayed put. Avdija posted 39 DK points in his 32 minutes on just 15.4% usage against Dallas, and we should expect more of the same, minutes-wise, tonight in a much better matchup against Houston. Deni has played more than 30 minutes in 13 games this season with a floor of 26.5 DK points and a ceiling of 44.25 DK points. At $4k, let’s not let a bench role scare us off on Wednesday’s DK slate.
4. Ben Simmons plays in Philadelphia Wednesday
I’m sure that none of the Philly contingent in the NBA Discord channel will have anything to say about Wednesday’s big matchup with the Nets. We’ve only seen these two teams play once this season and it was in Philadelphia so a little bit of the animosity may have subsided… eh, who am I kidding, this is Philly we’re talking about. Simmons is sure to walk into a hostile environment, something he surprisingly did not struggle with the first time around in November, posting 48.25 DK points in 32.5 minutes. The hostility came almost exclusively from the fans in that one though, as Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey all sat (and the 76ers still won). Embiid is questionable tonight and his presence in the paint, or lack thereof, will be a big factor in my interest level on a $6.5k Simmons. We know he can succeed statistically with a raucous Philadelphia crowd bearing down on him, but how much more does the potential presence of his former teammate Embiid change things for his approach in the paint. The Nets have the lowest team total of the 20 on this slate, so for now I’m treading lightly and keeping an eye on the injury report.
5. Tari Eason time may be over, but Alperen Sengun season continues
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the last two Houston games sans Jabari Smith, considering how much confidence it gives me to lock in my guy Tari Eason. Unfortunately for my own selfish desires, Jabari Smith is expected back for the Rockets, but it doesn’t mean my interest in the Rockets frontcourt evaporates completely. Alperen Sengun has been a monster in the absence of Kevin Porter, playing 35 or more minutes in each of the last four games without the Rockets starting point guard. He’s averaging 1.48 DK points per minute in that sample size as Houston has adjusted their halfcourt offense to run through the 20-year-old former MVP of the Turkish League. With the Wizards coming to town and Kristaps Porzingis sidelined, I’m more than a little excited about what Sengun, even at $8.7k, can produce against the porous frontcourt of Daniel Gafford, a 37-year-old Taj Gibson and Anthony Gill.
