Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
We have nine total games today, so there are plenty of choices to make as far as which slate to play, but this article will focus on the five-game slate that starts at 3:00 p.m. ET.
We have everything covered for the entire day at FTN.com, in addition to Discord. We’ve got plenty of work to do for the five-game slate so let’s get moving.
1. Jarrett Allen is scoring 0.96 points per minute
I don’t recall the last time I’ve seen Jarrett Allen under $6,000 on any slate, and he’s been as high as $7,400 this year. The Pelicans are tied for the eighth-most points per game to the roll man in the pick-and-roll, while Allen is scoring 3.2 points per game. New Orleans is also 16th in points allowed per game in the paint, and the Cavaliers will need the help on the glass since the Pelicans are fifth in rebounds allowed. The ceiling has been tough to find for Allen, but the lower the salary goes, the less you need him to score to feel good about playing him.
2. The Raptors allow the highest field goal rate to the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll
They don’t face it that much this season with the second-fewest possessions faced, but Jalen Brunson of the Knicks is at 43.2% for the frequency of the play type. He’s also ninth in points per game at 8.6 and is scoring 1.14 points per minute while the Raptors are 22nd against scorers. The assist rate is approaching 31.0%, and even though he may feel expensive, he’s logged over 40 minutes in his past five games. In addition, Brunson drives to the basket the fourth-most times in the league. Even though Toronto is in the top 10 in points per game allowed in the paint, Brunson passes out of his drives at a 39.3% rate, so he is difficult to deal with in this play type.
3. Klay Thompson is sitting out the back-to-back game against the Wizards
Stephen Curry is under $10,500 against the Wizards tonight, and the Washington backcourt is not great defensively, leading the matchup to be quite good for Curry tonight:
Curry has shot 10-for-32 from deep since he’s been back in the saddle, and the minutes could climb toward 36-38 tonight. His usage rate jumps up by 4.0% without Thompson, and the Warriors lost yesterday to the Bulls. They need to start stacking some wins, and Curry should be back in his rhythm, making him a strong option toward the top of the salary grid.
4. The Atlanta Hawks are 26th in points per game allowed in the paint
Even with the Hawks possibly getting center Clint Capela back tonight, there is a good chance that he’s only going to play a handful of minutes, and Bam Adebayo of the Heat is primed to exploit this matchup. He’s 10th in the league in paint touches per game and points scored per game, not to mention 13th in rebound chances per game at 16.8. Adebayo is arguably enjoying his best season and is averaging a double-double while he’s under $9,000. With the Hawks just 24th against centers this season, Adebayo could be a sneaky addition to the lineups on this slate.
5. Walker Kessler is still only $5,100
We know that Kelly Olynyk is still out for the Utah Jazz, and that has meant a big shift in production for Walker Kessler and the FTN Splits illustrate the difference :
We don’t know the exact matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves because Rudy Gobert is questionable for this game. He left last time with a groin injury, but even if Gobert plays, Kessler just handled a matchup with Joel Embiid with flying colors. Minnesota is also just 25th in rebounds allowed, and Kessler might only be at a 13.0% usage rate, but he’s scoring 1.13 points per minute. There is a double-double upside here, and Kessler should be playing around 30-32 minutes in this contest regardless of Gobert’s status.
