Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got another interesting NBA DFS slate Tuesday, with seven games and plenty of options to choose from. There are also some unique scenarios on this slate because there are multiple big-name stars that are questionable and don’t play until late. Let’s get to work and find five stats to help build some lineups.
1. The Heat have nine players available
They will be extremely shorthanded when they host the Thunder and will be the most popular team on the slate. It’s not hard to see why when you have players like Orlando Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus all no more expensive than $4,500 on DK. They open up everything as far as salary constraints and every player aside from Jimmy Butler is $5,300 or cheaper. Oklahoma City is third in pace and the value players are likely to end up being good chalk to eat with how few people can play for the Heat because Udonis Haslem and Dewayne Dedmon aren’t going to log big minutes.
2. Pascal Siakam is scoring 1.29 points per minute
The Raptors host the Hornets and offer a big pace-up matchup for the Raptors, as Toronto is only 25th in pace but Charlotte is eighth. They also are 29th in points per possession allowed when they face isolation while Siakam is ninth in points per game. Siakam should be able to eat on the glass as well since the Hornets are only 29th in rebounds allowed and the Raptors have to win these games if they’re going to make any type of run in the standings. With Charlotte ranking 25th against primary ball handlers and Siakam boasting a 29.2% usage rate, this checks a lot of boxes for a big game from Siakam.
3. Duane Washington played 25 minutes in the last game
He might have to play even more here, as the Suns are listing three players as questionable. They currently sit as almost 12-point underdogs so this is a game Phoenix could just sit out half the team and wave the white flag, which would push Washington to more minutes. He is not afraid to shoot the ball, taking 18 shots in each of the past two games and it helps explain his usage rate sitting over 35% in this scenario. The Warriors typically do play much better defense at him, but they also play at the fastest pace in the league, a huge boost for the Suns at 26th. I believe he’s right up there with the Miami value tonight even though his minutes could be a little lower pending on how the Suns approach this one.
4. Wendell Carter scores 6.0 points per game in the paint
I like Carter a lot in a matchup against the Trail Blazers — even though the Magic played Monday, he only logged just under 27 minutes. I feel comfortable in thinking he plays 30-32 tonight and he’s scoring 1.06 points per minute, in addition to averaging 15.5 rebound chances per game. Portland is down to 25th against centers overall and they’re 14th against rebounders, not to mention 22nd in points per game allowed in the paint. This is a very strong spot for Carter and with the value available, most of the field is likely to go with a studs and scrubs lineup construction tonight. The mid-range options such as Carter could be forgotten to a large extent.
5. Luka Doncic is scoring 1.76 points per minute
The Mavericks are still missing depth players like Maxi Kleber, Josh Green and Dorian Finney-Smith, which just means Doncic does even more. The usage rate is spiked at 39.7% and he has a 44.8% assist rate while this slate sets up very well for him to lead in fantasy points. The other major stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic aren’t on this slate while Joel Embiid and Stephen Curry are coming off injuries and are double-digit favorites. That leaves Luka as the lone wolf as far as the mega-studs, and it’s just so easy to slot him into lineups. The spread for the Mavericks and Clippers is currently just one point and Luka is the only player on the slate that has a reasonable expectation of getting to 80 DK points.
