NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
With so much always happening on most NBA DFS slates, there is always a ton of info to keep track of. That is very much the case on Friday’s 10-game slate, and while there is so much to choose from, here are five stats that stand out to me when diving into the games for Friday.
1. Zion Williamson is averaging 79.6 touches per game over his last five contests
This five-game stretch has been without Brandon Ingram in the Pelicans lineup, as he has been dealing with a toe injury. Ingram has already been ruled out for Friday’s contest against the Suns. With Ingram sidelined over the last five games, Williamson is averaging 79.6 touches per game, which is way up from his regular season average of 59.9 touches per game. Because I’m really good at math, I was able to decipher that Williamson is averaging about 20 more touches per game with Ingram out of the lineup this season, while his usage rate climbs to 29.1% with Ingram off the floor. He is also averaging an outstanding 1.40 fantasy points per minute in the split.
2. Trae Young is sporting a 43.7% usage rate with Dejounte Murray off the floor
That is an absurd usage rate, and it comes in nearly 250 minutes. Young is also averaging 1.60 fantasy points per minute in the split, while posting a 30% assist rate. With Murray out for the next few weeks, the ball will be in Young’s hands quite a bit. Friday, he’ll face a Brooklyn team that ranks 28th against primary ball handlers, 27th against scorers and 22nd against crafty finishers this season, according to our NBA Advanced DVP Tool.
3. The Pacers are allowing the 4th-most points per game off spot-ups this season (30.4)
Indiana is also coughing up the eighth-worst field goal percentage (41.5%) and sixth-most points per possession (1.07) off the play type. This could bode well for Kyle Kuzma, who is averaging the second-most points per game off the play type (6.8), while sporting a 32.5% frequency rate off spot-ups. He is already seeing more usage with Bradley Beal sidelined, but if Kristaps Porzingis also can’t play, the Washington offense would absolutely run through Kuzma in a favorable matchup.
4. Caris LeVert is averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute with Donovan Mitchell off the floor
Mitchell did not participate in shootaround this morning and is listed as questionable with lower leg soreness. If he can’t play, we know that Darius Garland will run the offense, but the Cavaliers will need more out of LeVert, who is averaging a respectable 0.92 fantasy points per minute with Mitchell off the floor. His usage rate is at 20.2% in the split and LeVert would likely attempt 15 shots against Sacramento.
5. The Pistons are allowing the 10th-most points per possession to the roll man out of the pick-and-roll (1.20)
This could bode well for Brandon Clarke, who would become a very strong value play if Steven Adams, who is listed as questionable with shoulder soreness, doesn’t play. In that event, Clarke would likely start and with Adams off the floor this season, he is sporting a 25% rebounding rate, while averaging a fantasy point per minute in the split. Clarke gets a lot of his baskets off rolling to the basket, as well as putbacks, making this a favorable matchup for him. Detroit also ranks 24th against rebounders on the season, while also coughing up the fourth-most points per game off putbacks (7.5).
