Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s not often that we get a slate of this size without a single player over $10,500 on DraftKings, but it makes sense since so many star players were on the Christmas day slate.
That makes for an interesting dynamic considering we may not have a spend-up to prioritize, and we may not have a ton of value plays either. Let’s get into the five stats to help build some lineups.
1. Kawhi Leonard is out tonight
The Clippers play two nights in a row, so Kawhi Leonard is sitting out tonight against the Pistons. Los Angeles is about as healthy as they’ve been all year, but Paul George has fallen to $9,000 on DraftKings. George has produced 1.27 points per minute at a 33.1% usage rate when Leonard has been off the floor this year, and the Pistons are 29th in defensive rating. Additionally, they are 16th in pace, so that’s an upgrade for the Clippers at 22nd. The Pistons are also 29th in points allowed per game in isolation. George is only shooting 33.3% in isolation this year, but there will be additional opportunities this evening.
2. Rudy Gobert is third in putback points per game
That would be notable in any game, but the Wolves are taking on the Heat tonight, and Miami has already ruled out their star center Bam Adebayo. Even with Adebayo, Miami has allowed the third-highest points per possession in that play type. On the season, the Heat are first in points allowed per game in the paint and only 15th in rebounds allowed per game. Rudy Gobert is scoring 1.11 points per minute without Karl-Anthony Towns, and this matchup just got way easier.
3. The Pelicans are missing plenty of players tonight
New Orleans could hold the keys to the slate since Brandon Ingram is out, Zion Williamson is doubtful and a host of others are questionable. If every questionable player sits out, they’ll be down to about 10 players, and only eight have marginally been in the rotation. CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado and (likely) Devonte’ Graham should make up the starting five and would be elite targets. With the Pacers ranking sixth in pace, we can load up on Pelicans with impunity, and they’ll be very popular. The starting five would almost surely play 35 minutes except for Valanciunas, who has Willy Hernangomez and Jaxson Hayes backing him up.
4. Walker Kessler has started the past three games for the Jazz
Kelly Olynyk has missed the last three games, pushing Walker Kessler into the starting lineup, and the rookie has responded well. He’s played the third-most minutes on the Jazz and is scoring 1.02 points per minute with one double-double and gets a great spot tonight against the Spurs. They are 24th against rebounders, 29th in points allowed in the paint per game and 18th in rebounds allowed per game. It’s the perfect spot for Kessler to record another double-double or exceed 30+ DK points.
5. Damian Lillard is third in the league in 3-point attempts per game
The $10,000 threshold on DK is generally the line in the sand for Damian Lillard in my eyes, and he’s dipped back under it. Lillard is scoring 1.32 points per minute and has a 32.0% usage rate and is shooting 39.1% from downtown on 11.2 attempts per game. The Hornets allow the 10th-highest conversion rate from a 3-point distance, and these teams have the highest total on the slate. It’s not hard to see why, as both are in the bottom six in defensive rating, and the Hornets are 10th in pace, a big bump for the Blazers at 27th.
