Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Last night was basically chaos in the last hour, and then it extended into the slate, as Ja Morant was ejected and we had insane value players tilting the slate.
Chaos is one thing, but last night was certainly off the chart, so we are likely to get more of a normal slate tonight.
1. Fred VanVleet is scoring 1.22 points per minute without OG Anunoby on the floor
It’s a sample size of 188 minutes so far this year, and he’s sporting a true shooting rate under 55%, so he’s not shooting at a rate that we need to worry about coming back down to earth. The usage rate is 28.8%, and he’s shot the ball 24 and 25 times in the past two games. We’ve also talked a lot this year about how the Warriors have a much lower defensive rating on the road, and their net rating without Stephen Curry is very scary as well. Fred VanVleet is under $8,500, and it’s a big pace-up spot since the Warriors are in the top five in pace and the Raptors are just 23rd. He’s a player I like playing when they’re hot like this, and his 3-point shooting is just 6-for-17 in the past two games, so that can get even hotter.
2. Detroit has a record of 8-23
Normally, the record of a team is of minimal value for a team on a given day, but the gist of this is the Pistons are in the middle of a lost season. Some hope before the year started has been quickly dashed, and they may as well start looking to next year as Cade Cunningham had shin surgery. That means something for us because a player like Jalen Duren has been starting for them and has eclipsed 30 minutes in the past two games. He’s producing 0.91 points per minute, while Brooklyn is 15th against rebounders. In his four games as a starter, Jalen Duren leads the NBA with 24.3 rebounding chances per game and is still under $5,000.
3. Both the Bulls and Timberwolves are in the top nine in pace
This game looks like a lot of fun, even if we don’t know exactly who’s playing for the Wolves yet. Targeting the Bulls when they are all healthy can be a chore, but the duo of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are both over 28.5% for their usage rate. Historically, LaVine can excel in spots where the pace is high, and he’s only $7,000 on DK. He can get loose in the transition, as the Wolves are in the bottom 10 in points allowed in transition, in addition to being in the bottom eight against all of his player types. It won’t be exceptionally hard to stack this game either, especially if the Minnesota side gives us cheap options like Naz Reid and/or Jaylen Nowell. We’d need Rudy Gobert and D’Angelo Russell to be out, but this one should be packed with fantasy goodness.
4. Nikola Jokic is up to 1.73 points per minute without Michael Porter
Nikola Jokic has started to look more like last year as this season has gone along, and Michael Porter is still out of the lineup, forcing him to carry more of the offense. The usage rate is 29.4%, and he’s facing the Charlotte Hornets at home after a bad loss in the last game. The field is almost surely going to flock to the next player we’re going to discuss, and that potentially leaves Jokic less popular than he should be because of his matchup. The Hornets have gotten wrecked by centers dating back to last season and are down to 19th against skilled centers and 29th against rebounders. We’ll see how the value players shape up throughout the day, but Jokic is one of my favorite players on the slate.
5. Anthony Davis is out for the Lakers tonight
That will surely push both LeBron James and Thomas Bryant into chalk levels today, and that is totally understandable. James is over 1.50 points per minute while Bryant will start for Davis and has scored 1.18 points per minute. Bryant being a center along with Naz Reid from Minnesota could make things interesting in that position. If the field goes with Reid and Bryant, that leaves Jokic lower, and we saw that scenario play out on Friday night. If that’s the case, I want to make sure I get some Jokic for exposure there while mixing it in with LeBron, since the Wizards are 22nd in defensive rating.
