2023-2024 NBA Season Preview: Southeast Division

The NBA’s Southeast Division was one of excitement and frustration with very little left in the middle last year. Miami wasn’t comfortably a .500 team until January. Atlanta fired their coach with 23 games left in the season while in a tight race to win the division and make the playoffs. Orlando was a preseason darling and beat their expected win total by more than 11 games. LaMelo Ball’s injury and Miles Bridges domestic violence charge effectively ended Charlotte’s season right as it started. Washington challenged the definition of insanity by trying again with Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis and lost that challenge.

The offseason brought big changes for some, but not for everyone who expected it. Let’s dive into each team to see what happened last year, how the offseason went, and what to expect as we head toward the 2023-2024 NBA season.

Check all our NBA division previews: Northwest | Central | Pacific | Atlantic | Southwest

Atlanta Hawks

Key Offseason Additions – Wesley Matthews
Key Offseason Subtractions – John Collins

The 2022-23 NBA season was disappointing for Atlanta. The addition of Dejounte Murray didn’t start well, and the offense felt clunky. Trae Young regressed. John Collins signed a huge contract and regressed. Things were a mess, but they didn’t stand pat. Coach Nate McMillan was fired after a 29-30 start, and Quin Snyder was brought in quickly to replace him. They also packaged a bunch of second-round picks to acquire Saddiq Bey at the tread deadline. It was too little too late as the team finished eighth in the East, 6 games below their expected win total, and lost in Round 1 of the playoffs.

How do the changes late last year and this offseason impact a talented team that has yet to fit together smoothly? Snyder is one of the better coaches in the league and should have an offense planned after an offseason of prep work. Bey was a perfect addition and will be a positive player every night as a small ball power forward. Trae Young has struggled to create wins for this team, but his talent and impact on the geometry of the floor is undeniable. Murray didn’t fit at first, but they found ways to function together and I’m confident Snyder will only improve that. Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter fit well, Bogdan Bogdanovic is healthy, and there are quality young players on the roster in Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson and AJ Griffin. The pieces are all here and we’ll have to see if Snyder can put them all together.

I project the Hawks to win 44 games, 1.5 more than their current regular season win total, but more importantly, I have them projected to win more games than the Heat. Miami is the favorite to win this division and Atlanta is priced at +200. The Hawks have a lot of upside, a low ceiling and much less potential for injury issues than the Heat. I’ll happily back them to win the Southeast. Another bet I’m placing is for Quin Synder to be Coach of the Year at +2000 or better. As I mentioned, a lot of Atlanta’s success is based on the coach’s ability to pull the right strings. If Atlanta wins this division and competes for a top 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, Snyder will be a top candidate for COY.

Bets

To win the Southeast Division +200
Snyder Coach of the Year +2000

Miami Heat

Key Offseason Additions – Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Jaime Jaquez (R)
Key Offseason Subtractions – Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo

The Miami Heat had a wild season in 2022-23. They were the No. 9 seed going into Christmas and despite struggling with injury and illness managed to finish as the No. 7 seed. The Heat had the top spot in the play in tournament, but they lost the first game to Atlanta and faced a deficit late into the fourth quarter of the second game. Miami came back to win that game and then ripped through the first two series and 3 games of the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo hurt his back early in Round 1, and the Heat won in 5. After crushing Cleveland, the Knicks lost in 6 in Round 2. Miami won the first three games of the conference finals against Boston, lost the next three and then crushed the Celtics in Game 7 in Boston to make the NBA Finals. Denver dispatched Miami in five games, most of which were not particularly close. The Heat were able to overcome a rough start and win their conference, but finishing second isn’t as fun as it may sound.

Despite a lot of talk about a few different potential trades, Miami comes back this season with mostly the same roster. Jason Richardson and Thomas Bryant will be nice fits, but don’t really raise the team’s level. Strus and Vincent were key pieces of their postseason run last year and their shooting will be missed. Jimmy Butler is 34 and entering his 14^th season in the league. This team is likely going to be worse than they were last season. Now, go back and reread that first paragraph. How lucky were they? It’s amazing they made it as far as they did, but they took advantage of the opportunity they had. There’s still a chance they could acquire a star player, but unless they do, it’s going to be hard to make the NBA Finals again.

The betting markets have this squad pegged to win 46.5 games and I project them to win just 42. There is a lot of variability in the potential outcomes for this team. At the positive end is a fully healthy Jimmy Butler for a full season and a trade to add talent to the roster. At the negative end is an injury plagued season devoid of any big move. When dealing with a situation like this, we want to look on more extreme outcomes because that’s where we’ll find the most value. In this case, if things go wrong, I’m betting that they go very wrong. I’m fading them with bets on Atlanta to win this division already, and I’ll bet Miami misses the playoffs entirely at +400 and to make the play-in tournament at +250. I don’t a bet on their RSW total, but there is more value in these two wagers.

Bets

To Miss the Playoffs +400
To Make the Play-In Tournament +250

Orlando Magic

Key Offseason Additions – Anthony Black (R), Joe Ingles
Key Offseason Subtractions – Bol Bol

Last season was one of growth for a young team trying to acquire as much talent as possible and somehow put it all together. It’s hard to call a 34-win season a success, but it was 11 more victories than the betting markets expected. Paolo Banchero struggled with efficiency but had a great season and showed everyone why he was worth to be the No. 1 pick of the draft. Franz Wagner was one of the more exciting young players in the league. At 6-foot-10, he shot and created offense like a guard and was key to generating what little offense the Magic could last season. Wendell Carter took a big step forward. But, you know, they won 41.5% of their games and never got above 11^th in the Eastern Conference.

An offseason of training and growth may be all this young team needs, but I’m worried that there may not be enough talent in Orlando’s locker room. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are blue chip players who can be part of a great team, but that’s kind of where the list ends. Carter is good, Anthony Black could be good, but is a rookie, and then we’re back to hoping Jonathan Isaac, Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz can meet the expectations we had for them years ago. The Magic have one of the worst collections of guards in the NBA, which is not good in a league that is focused more and more on ball handling and the ability to create each season. Organic growth could happen, but it’s a dubious proposition and there were no big offseason moves to spur change.

My projections are close to the market, and I won’t be betting any Orlando related for the time being. I see more downside than upside, but the upside could be big. Rookies like Banchero are often much better in their second season. They are more prepared for the rigors of the NBA and what’s required for them to succeed at the top level. Franz Wagner has gotten better each season and was a key player for Germany in FIBA this summer. Those two could be enough to drag this team to almost 40 wins and a Play-In spot, but let’s wait and see how it goes.

Bets

None

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Charlotte Hornets

Key Offseason Additions – Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller (R)
Key Offseason Subtractions – Kelly Oubre, Dennis Smith

I’ll try to be positive and just say that nothing really went right for the Hornets last season. LaMelo Ball missed 46 games. Gordon Hayward missed 32 games. Miles Bridges was in line to get a big contract and be a key to this team’s success, but instead was suspended for a domestic violence incident and missed the entire season. They were one of the worst teams in the NBA, but not bad enough to have a top chance at winning the draft lottery. Charlotte was unable to trade veterans like Hayward or Terry Rozier for draft picks or young pieces. 2022-23 was not good for the Hornets.

They did get the second pick of the draft and took Brandon Miller, who should be a fine player, but they could have taken Scoot Henderson. The now-Portland Trail Blazer was a higher-rated player and (for now) looks to have a higher ceiling, which is what you want with a top draft pick. It will be interesting to see how that decision plays out for the Hornets. Bridges is hopefully past his domestic violence charges and ready to play after finishing his suspension for the first 10 games. Otherwise, this is the same roster as last season. LaMelo should play most of the season, but there’s not much for him to work with on this roster. Hayward seems to be over the hill, and Rozier is entering the downturn of his career. Bridges is good, P.J. Washington could be very good if his shooting improves, and Mark Williams gives them their most interesting big man in years, but that’s it. There is little to no shooting and few, if any, creators besides LaMelo Ball. Steve Clifford is not a bad NBA coach, but he is not the coach to make this team better than the sum of its parts. I see little reason to be excited about the Hornets.

This is a hard team to project. Ball missed most of last year and played mostly while the team was tanking. Bridges averaged 20 PPG, 7 RPG and 4 APG with good shooting two years ago. What can we expect him to do this season? A year is a long time to be away from the league. If Bridges can get back to that level, he is a perfect fit next to Ball and could make this team much better. I’m also expecting a coaching change sooner rather than later. The Hornets have new owners and Clifford needs to be replaced as soon as possible. I have them 3.5 games under their current RSW total, and I’d be happy to go under that number, but there is a better option. DraftKings is offering alternate win totals. If things go poorly here, it’s going to be much worse than a 30-win season. I’ll take the alternate RSW of 29.5 priced at +135 at DK.

Bets

Under 29.52 Regular Season Wins +135

Washington Wizards

Key Offseason Additions – Jordan Poole, Tyus Jones, Bilal Coulibaly (R), Landry Shamet
Key Offseason Subtractions – Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Monte Morris

The Wizards’ 2022-23 season turned out to be the end of an era. Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis led a team that showed flashes of mediocrity as they won about half of their games through February. Unfortunately, there was still March and April left, during which Washington was just 6-15 to limp to the end of the year. Kyle Kuzma was good, but not much more than that while young players like Deni Avidja and Corey Kispert showed little growth. They did exceed their regular season win total in the betting markets, but that’s little consolation for what was mostly a lost season.

Thankfully the offseason brought change and the clear signs of trying to build something new going forward. Beal was turned into Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, Bilal Coulibaly and a plethora of draft picks. Paul was then turned into Jordan Poole and even more draft picks. Finally, they sent out Kristaps Porzingis to bring in Tyus Jones. It was a complete teardown, and what’s left is potentially, maybe, possibly an interesting starting lineup for what is ultimately the worst roster in the NBA. The bill for a few years of Peal & Porzingis has come due and been paid.

I really do think a lineup of Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford and Bilal Coulibaly or Deni Avdija could be reminiscent of what we saw in Utah early last year. One of the more interesting markets in NBA games is the spread & moneyline for the first quarter. This team could be undervalued there and in things like “the race to 20 points” to start the year. Of course, once the bench comes into the game, bet the other team live. The offseason got rid of the expensive problems but didn’t bring much of future value back in return. Jones, Kuzma and Poole could be traded midseason for picks and younger assets. I’m projected them to go under their regular season win total and I’m betting it. I’ll also add another alternate win total under because if this goes bad, it could be very bad.