Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tuesday is a robust slate for MLB games. All the local teams play in markets where Tipico Sportsbook is active. This includes the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rockies. We have some really solid pitching matchups in a few of these contests, especially the Phillies/Reds and Yankees/Rays games. Those are the two we will be digging deeper into today.
Can Aaron Nola get the Phillies a win?
The Phillies travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in the Great American Ballpark. It should be renamed the Great American Bandbox, as that stadium has seen its fair share of homers over the years. The pitching in this game is very good. Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies. He has a 3.72 ERA and has actually been even better than that number shows. His xFIP is lower at 3.44, meaning he is due for some positive regression. He’s averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, is walking under 2 batters per 9, and has given up less than a homer per 9. All three of those numbers are better than his career averages. Given how good Nola has been this year, you would think this game is a slam dunk for the Phillies, but it is not the whole story. The Cincinnati Reds are one of the best teams in baseball against RHP this year. The active roster currently sports a 109 wRC+ score against righties in 2021. That ties them for the sixth-best production in the majors. Add that to the bandbox ballpark and it is not as cut and dry as you would expect a Nola start to be.
On the other side of this game, Sonny Gray is not the pitcher Nola is, but he is also not bad. Gray walks more batters (4 BB/9) and gives up more homers, but he also has a tad more strikeouts per 9 and an ERA that is currently lower than Nola’s. Gray has a 3.40 ERA and a 3.60 xFIP, so his numbers are due for a slight amount of negative regression but are basically right in line. The positive for Gray is that he faces a weak offense as opposed to Nola. The Phillies this year are currently one of the bottom-tier teams against righties with just an 85 wRC+. This is why the Phillies and Reds are a true coin flip on Tipico Sportsbook. Both teams are listed at -110 on the moneyline. I honestly love the Phillies here, though. A good pitcher can neutralize a solid offense, and that is what I expect Nola to be able to do here. Gray has been giving up a few to many homers this year, based on that elevated HR/9 above his career averages. I know the Phillies lineup is filled with easy outs and strikeouts against RHP, but it only takes one or two good swings to give Nola enough run support to get a W. Our projections at FTN Bets have Nola winning this game 54.5% of the time and at -110, the books are giving him only a 52.4% chance to win it. Is it a massive edge? Absolutely not, but it is a playable one if you are looking for a side here.
Who will win the AL East battle?
As a Yankees fan, I wish I could say they were the team to bet on Tuesday. Unfortunately, that is not the case at all. Let’s start with the pitching. Tyler Glasnow has been lights out this season. He has a sparkling 2.57 ERA with an xFIP and FIP under 3, so that number is not just luck. He has struck out 12.6 batters per 9 IP, up from 11.24 for his career. His BB/9 is down below 3 from 3.95 for his career and even his HR/9 is down a bit from career numbers at 1.16. He is only 27 years old, so you should expect he would improve. He also draws a Yankees lineup that is slightly below par with a 99 wRC+ against RHP this season. The normally mighty Yankees only project for 3 runs, which is not going to win you many games.
On the flip side, Domingo Germán has been pretty lucky this year and that is going to catch up with him soon. His ERA is 3, but he hasn’t pitched like a guy who should have a 3 ERA. His FIP and xFIP are both over 4, which is more in line with his career numbers than the 3 ERA is. German gives up 1.6 HR/9, which is a big number. He has been able to limit walks, although his k/9 number is also down. The saving grace for him this year is a massive 87% strand rate. That is an unsustainable number. It also explains why his ERA is more than a run better than his xFIP. The regression will catch up to him soon and today might be that day. He faces the Rays offense and their league leading 119 wRC+ score against RHP in 2021. It is not a fluke that the Rays currently lead the AL East and all of MLB in wins at 35. This team is a legit contender for pennants and a world series this year. The Rays currently sit at -130 on Tipico Sportsbook and that gives them a 56.5% chance to win the game at that price. The real win percentage here works out closer to 58%, meaning we have a slight edge on the Tampa side. The edge is actually bigger on the Phillies to beat the Reds, despite the Rays being a higher win percentage. As always, the payouts factor into the size of the edge and the Phillies at -110 pays better than the Rays at -130, even if it is a few percentage points less likely to happen.
It should be a great day of baseball for local fans in Tipico markets. The pitching alone in both of these games is worth the price of admission. If you are feeling frisky, you can even parlay the Rays and Phillies together for a payout in the +240 range on Tipico. At +240, the implied payout is 29%, but if you parlay the projected 58.5% on the Rays with the 54.5% on the Phillies you get 31%, meaning we even have a little bit of value on the Parlay if you are someone who prefers to take on some added risk.
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