Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re breaking down the top MLB fantasy picks Tuesday for DFS in the All-Star Game. We’re here to give you a clear and concise way to approach the Midsummer Classic in your tournament lineups, and this article on the top MLB DFS plays is focused on taking down a big GPP on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
Top MLB Fantasy Picks for DFS Today
DFS Pitchers
Not Participating – Emmanuel Clase, Framber Valdez, Shane McClanahan, Kevin Gausman, Devin Williams, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder
Félix Bautista, Josh Hader, Alexis Díaz
Trying to play pitchers in an All-Star Game is not the most fun we’re ever going to have. Last year saw the American League use 11 pitchers for no more than one inning apiece, and the National League used one pitcher per inning, totaling nine players. I would have to assume that this year’s contest will follow a similar approach, so we’re going to need to go hunting for strikeouts the best we can. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings, there are three of the top 10 pitchers in K rate available for this game. Both Josh Hader and Alexis Díaz are above 37% for their K rate, while Félix Bautista is in a class of his own at an amazing 50.9%. Let that sink in.
Over half of the hitters who face Bautista strike out, and he has a 1.66 FIP and 1.76 xFIP to back it up. Those are easily the lowest in the top 10 and beyond, and Bautista is the minimum salary. They could also be facing “backups” if they aren’t used until later in the game, which is a small bonus. I say small just because both teams have an array of fantastic hitters, but at least they will avoid the starters. Spending the least we can on pitching for the max result seems like the best way to attack, and I’m not going to have a ton of interest in pitching that is likely to only go for one inning. Both teams have enough arms to go with one per inning comfortably.
Others to Consider – Justin Steele, Mitch Keller, Kodai Senga, Luis Castillo, Kenley Jansen, Pablo López
Top Stacks
Luis Arraez, National League
It’s going to be a lot more difficult to stack this game since there will be so many different players in the lineup at one point or another. Luis Arraez has my interest for a few reasons, though. The first is he’s hitting sixth instead of his customary leadoff spot. He’s leading the league in batting average by a whopping 52 points, so if he has runners on ahead of him, there will be plenty of RBI opportunities. The American League also doesn’t have a lefty available in this game since Shane McClanahan is not pitching, while Arraez is said to be getting two at-bats and the price is right for him.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., National League
Since the lineup is likely to be somewhat of a revolving door, let’s try and attack a spot in that lineup that won’t stick with a starter for very long. In case you missed it, Corbin Carroll looked like he seriously injured his shoulder Friday night –
While he wound up playing Saturday, I can’t imagine he takes more than one at-bat. The National League has three reserves in the outfield in Juan Soto, Nick Castellanos and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Soto is fairly pricey for a substitution, but Castellanos and Gurriel are not. Castellanos hits for a higher average, but Gurriel has more home runs against righty pitching this year so we can try and go home run hunting, as Arizona should want Carroll out of this game early on.
Expensive Hitters to Consider – Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman
Julio Rodríguez, American League
I would expect the hometown hero would get into this game and hopefully get two at-bats, which could provide some value at the salary. Since the matchup would be impossible to break down, this is more about the power and speed that Rodriguez can bring. He’s on the lower end of the salary scale and the AL is missing three outfielders Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge this year. We can play the hometown narrative here and get some savings in the process.
Shohei Ohtani, American League
Since we know Shohei Ohtani is not pitching but is all right to hit, I truly don’t mind trying to capture some magic even at the high salary. We know he’s going to face Zac Gallen in the first inning, and Gallen has not pitched well on the road this season with a 1.08 HR/9 against lefty hitters. Gallen is using his four-seam about 48% of the time and that’s a pitch that Ohtani hits the best with a wOBA of .464 and a total of 13 home runs. We have the ability to spend up on a hitter or two in our builds and since hitters could be out of the game relatively early, we may as well go after the league leader in home runs at the break.
Expensive Hitters to Consider – Corey Seager, José Ramírez, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Tucker
Core
Luis Arraez
Félix Bautista
Julio Rodríguez
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