The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/6)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Blue Jays (+116), Yankees (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Jameson Taillon (R)

Three things to know

• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
• The Jays are straight cooking — they’ve logged a .330 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Jameson Taillon has struggled lately, getting bombed for an 11.88 ERA over his last two starts.

Best bets: I like the road Jays here — with Taillon struggling, I like the juice.

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Royals (-108), Orioles (-108)
Total: 10.5 runs
Kris Bubic (L) vs. Zac Lowther (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 23.4% strikeout rate and .315 wOBA.
• The Royals sport a league-worst .124 ISO over that same time frame.
• Camden Yards ranks in the top-5 in home run factor and park factor.

Best bets: As indicated by the Vegas line, this is a total guess. It may be a stay away for me.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Mets (-126), Nationals (+108)
Total: 9.5 runs
Trevor Williams (R) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)

Three things to know

• The Mets gotta start going on offense — they’ve recorded a .312 woBA and .160 ISO in the last 30 days.
• Washington has been a little better (.325 wOBA) but with a little less pop (.155 ISO).
• In his last five starts (25 innings), Corbin has logged an ugly 8.64 ERA.

Best bets: The UNDER. These pitchers are not good, but these offenses are putrid.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (-176), Red Sox (+148)
Total: 9.0 runs
Ryan Yarbrough (L) vs. Chris Sale (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays are the league’s best offense — they’ve slammed the ball for a .230 ISO and .348 wOBA.
• The Sox? Not too far behind. They have a .207 ISO and a league-best .356 wOBA.
• Chris Sale has been nothing short of brilliant in his return, logging a 2.53 ERA.

Best bets: I know the Sox are the underdogs, and the Rays are killing it, but Sale is too much.

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Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Tigers (-142), Pirates (+120)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tarik Skubal (L) vs. Bryse Wilson (R)

Three things to know

• The Tigers are bad offensively — they’ve recorded a .305 wOBA and .177 ISO in the last month.
• The Pirates are the league’s worst offense in the same time frame in terms of walk rate, ISO and wOBA.
• In his last nine starts, Skubal has allowed multiple homers in four of them.

Best bets: I don’t trust Bryse Wilson, but the Tigers are bad. Take the road dogs and maybe a homer prop.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Phillies (+120), Brewers (-142)
Total: 7.0 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Brandon Woodruff (R)

Three things to know

• These are two middling offenses — can either one score off these aces?
• The Phillies rank 13th in ISO (.179), but have struggled in wOBA (.306).
• The Brewers rank 17th in ISO (.176), but have been better in team wOBA (.335).

Best bets: These teams basically have identical strikeout rates as well — take the UNDER in this ace matchup.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Reds (-156), Cubs (+132)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sonny Gray (R) vs. Justin Steele (L)

Three things to know

• The Cubs have a weird profile in the last month — they rank 20th in team wOBA with a whopping 30.8% whiff rate.
• The Cubs have whiffed at over a 30% clip for the last month.
• The Reds have been solid at the plate lately — their .204 ISO is fourth in the league.

Best bets: The Cubs have been whiffing too darn much — peek at the Sonny Gray strikeout prop.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Giants (-154), Rockies (+130)
Total: 11.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Kyle Freeland (L)

Three things to know

• The Rockies have been nasty at the plate, logging a .183 wOBA and .316 wOBA in the last month.
• The Giants have screeched to a halt on offense, ranking 19th in the same wOBA metric.
• The Giants have been playing fine in their recent run (9-7 in L16), but the Dodgers have narrowed that gap.

Best bets: After a rough patch, Kevin Gausman has been stellar lately — he’s logged a 2.23 FIP and 10K/9 in the last month. I actually like the UNDER here.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Dodgers (-215), Cardinals (+180)
Total: 7.5 runs
Max Scherzer (R) vs. Miles Mikolas (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have woken up at the plate, logging a .340 wOBA in the last month.
• The Dodgers? Still good. But, they have tailed off to a .309 wOBA over the same period.
• Miles Mikolas has allowed only 0.55 HR/9 this season.

Best bets: The UNDER. Both teams are struggling, and Busch Stadium is a pitcher’s paradise.

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Twins (-130), Guardians (+110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Bailey Ober (R) vs. Logan Allen (L)

Three things to know

• Cleveland Rocks! They have been hot at the dish, posting a .342 wOBA and .200 ISO.
• Minnesota? Not so much. They have a .307 wOBA and 24.2% strikeout rate.
• Bailey Ober has a 25.5% strikeout rate over 74.2 innings pitched.

Best bets: Ober has been good, but so have the Indians. Take them in a F3/F5.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Mariners (+180), Astros (-225)
Total: 8.5 runs
Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Lance McCullers (R)

Three things to know

• The Mariners are back to struggle mode — they’ve logged only a .301 wOBA in the last 30 days.
• The Astros have been back to boppin — their .328 wOBA is one of the league’s top marks.
• The Astros are now controlling the whiffs — an 18.7% strikeout rate is a really tough mark.

Best bets: An easy F3/F5 on the ‘Stros.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Rangers (+112), Angels (-132)
Total: 9.0 runs
A.J. Alexy (R) vs. Jaime Barria (R)

Three things to know

• Runs are likely to be at a premium as these two teams are struggling.
• The Angels look lost at the plate — they are second worst in team wOBA (.285), ISO (.129), and strikeout rate (25.3%).
• The Rangers aren’t much better, posting a .307 wOBA and .150 ISO.

Best bets: Nine runs seems way too high — take the UNDER.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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