The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/29)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Red Sox (-250), Orioles (+205)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Zac Lowther (L)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox need to lean on their .342 wOBA in order to make it into the playoffs.
• Camden Yards ranks inside the top 10 in terms of park factor and HR factor.
• The Orioles have fallen off fast with a .304 wOBA and 26.2% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The Red Sox have to stop messing around. They have a clear pitching advantage, and they have to take this one.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Yankees (-112), Blue Jays (-104)
Total: 8.0 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. José Berríos (R)

Three things to know

• This series has massive implications — who can take it?
• Toronto has been death row to pitch to — a league-leading .361 wOBA, including a .237 ISO.
• The Yankees mediocre offense remains, well, mediocre — they are 10th in wOBA and ISO for the last 30 days. Giancarlo Stanton has bopped 11 long balls in the last month.

Best bets: The Yankees are hot, and with the pitching advantage, I like them here.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Phillies (+120), Braves (-140)
Total: 7.5 runs
Aaron Nola (R) vs. Max Fried (L)

Three things to know

• Atlanta has been solid at the dish recently, logging a .207 ISO and .319 wOBA.
• The Phillies? They rank in the top five in both marks, ahead of the Braves.
• After a loss Tuesday night, the Phillies have to take this one.

Best bets: Can the Phillies make this a series? I like Fried and the Braves.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Brewers (-108), Cardinals (-108)
Total: 8.0 runs
Adrian Houser (R) vs. Miles Mikolas (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have won 17 straight and 19 of 20.
• What Cardinals team shows up after clinching the second Wild Card last night?
• The Cardinals have been on fire at the plate, posting a .343 wOBA and .222 ISO.

Best bets: I’d expect the Cardinals to not start a lot of regulars here. Take the Brewers.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Guardians (-118), Royals (+100)
Total: 9.0 runs
Zach Plesac (R) vs. Daniel Lynch (L)

Three things to know

• The Royals offense has continued to be, well, mediocre, logging a .156 ISO in the last 30 days.
• The Guardians boast only a .302 wOBA in the last month.
• Can Plesac curb his massive home run issues?

Best bets: The Royals. Plesac has been terrible, and the Cleveland offense is bad. The UNDER isn’t so bad, either.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Angels (+104), Rangers (-122)
Total: 8.5 runs
Janson Junk (R) vs. Taylor Hearn (L)

Three things to know

• The Angels are second worst in team wOBA at a .283 mark.
• The Rangers? They are fourth worst with a .291 wOBA, and a league-worst .120 ISO.
• Can either of these young hurlers stand out tonight?

Best bets: The UNDER. These teams are horrible at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Reds (+150), White Sox (-178)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sonny Gray (R) vs. Carlos Rodón (L)

Three things to know

• How can the Reds be this bad with such a talented team?
• The Reds have picked things up offensively lately, recording a .326 wOBA in the last month.
• The Sox .336 wOBA showcases that they have been far more solid at the dish.

Best bets: The Reds really don’t have much to play for — take the Sox again, especially with Rodon on the bump.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Rays (+116), Astros (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Drew Rasmussen (R) vs. Luis García (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays have really found their gear at the plate, logging a .194 ISO and .329 wOBA.
• Not to be outdone, the ‘Stros have recorded a .184 ISO and .339 wOBA.
• Is this an ALCS preview? It sure seems like it and Tuesday’s game was electric.

Best bets: This one is confusing to me because the opener throws me off, but I like the ‘Stros again.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+220), Giants (-270)
Total: 8.0 runs
Merrill Kelly (R) vs. Alex Wood (L)

Three things to know

• Alex Wood whiffed six in four innings in Denver last week.
• The Diamondbacks .287 wOBA is third worst, and their .147 ISO is fifth worst.
• The Giants .356 wOBA (second best) has been one of the best offenses all year.

Best bets: The Giants have to keep pace with the Dodgers — take them on the moneyline yet again.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Athletics (-110), Mariners (-108)
Total: 7.5 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Logan Gilbert (R)

Three things to know

• The A’s? Their .319 wOBA and .157 ISO isn’t great by any stretch.
• The Mariners have logged a .314 wOBA and a .166 ISO over the last month.
• Can the Mariners cut down on their strikeout rate? They’ve been better lately with a 20.9% mark.

Best bets: I can’t bet against my boy Frankie Montas. Take the A’s in a F3/F5.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Padres (+250), Dodgers (-310)
Total: 8.0 runs
Ryan Weathers (L) vs. Max Scherzer (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers need to wake up at the plate — their .317 wOBA is only 16h.
• The Padres have been awful lately, logging a .306 wOBA and .151 ISO.
• The Padres have limited the whiffs, recording a 19.5% strikeout rate in the same time frame.

Best bets: The Dodgers have to beat this free-falling Padres team to win the West. Take them yet again.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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